AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION IN THE ASIAN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS

Purpose of the study: This study investigates Short-run, Long-run, and Casual relationships in the Asian Developed and Emerging stock market indices for the period of 19 years weekly data of stock market indices of Asian Developed and Emerging Markets which are Japan (Nikkei 225), South Korea (KOSPI), Pakistan (KSE 100), China (SSE Composite), Sri Lanka (ASPI), India (BSE 200) and Malaysia (KLSE composite) from January 2001 to December 2019. Methodology: To analyze long-run and short-run relationships among the Asian developed and emerging stock markets, this study practices Descriptive Statistics, Correlation Matrix, Unit Root Test, Johansen Co-Integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality test, Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Main findings: By employing the ADF and P.P. tests, the results specify that the entire variables' data are non-stationary and stationary in exact order, which is 1st difference. The Johnson Co-integration test found one cointegration relationship, where the results are consistent with Granger causality, Variance Decomposition, and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Application of the study: As the current research has focused on finding out the comovements in the Asian developed and emerging markets. So, the applications are that the survey found short-run and long-run relationships in these countries' stock markets. The study's originality: The current study has selected seven Asian developed and emerging stock markets and weekly updated time series data to investigate short-term and long-term linkages. So, this study found long-run comovements in these stock indices, which contributes to the literature. In addition, these stock markets have limited diversification benefits for international investors, while short-term diversification benefits may exist.

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The Linkage between Chittagong Stock Market and Dhaka Stock Market

10.54728/2112091639050770 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Muhammad Shahidullah Tasfiq ◽

◽

Nasrin Jahan

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Stock Price ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Variance Decomposition ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper aims at determining the relationship between the two domestic stock markets of Bangladesh – the Chittagong Stock Market (CSE) and the Dhaka Stock Market (DSE). The daily stock price indices that represent the performance of the two stock markets are collected. In order to find out the interdependent relationship, the Engle-Granger Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed in this paper. The main finding of this study is that both the stock markets are related in the long run. However, there is a one-way short-run effect from the DSE on the CSE market. The CSE market quickly responds to the shock in the DSE market. But, the DSE market is not responsive to the CSE market. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the shocks in the CSE market are explained by its own market. On the other hand, a small number of shocks in the DSE market are explained by the CSE market as well as its own market.

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Contagion Effects on Stock Market of Bangladesh

International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management ◽

10.4018/ijabim.2017040101 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 1-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury ◽

Md. Mahmudul Haque ◽

Md. Nazrul Islam

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Global Economy ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Contagion Effects ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

Short Run

Due to increased globalization and economic integration in the global economy, contagion effects have been considered an important matter for the investors and policymakers. In the wake of the global financial crisis of September 2008, Islamic financial products were thrust into the spotlight as alternatives to the shaken conventional equity markets. The objective of this study is to discover the Islamic stock market dynamics of Bangladesh with the global Islamic stock markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Europe, UK and Japan. For understanding long run relationship or the theoretical relationships among the Islamic stock market and short run co-movements among Islamic stocks, Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) have been applied respectively. Furthermore, the investigation on short run dynamics is also carried through Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses. The study found that the Japanese Islamic Stock market is affected to changes in other Islamic stock markets while Kuwait stock market is the leader in the sense it affects other stock market greatly. Bangladeshi Islamic stock market is found to be marginally affecting other stock markets but not as strong as Kuwait. Global Islamic stock market seems to have very little impact to Bangladesh Islamic stock market. The evidence of co-integration and short run dynamics help a diversification benefit may be derived from the cross boarder investment. The empirical evidence of co-integration and short run dynamic relationship found in this study will help investors in making efficient investment decisions and also enhance their understanding of market behavior.

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Impact of terrorism on stock markets across the world and stock returns

Journal of Financial Crime ◽

10.1108/jfc-09-2018-0093 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 793-807 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Laila Memdani ◽

Guruprasad Shenoy

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Performance Measure ◽

Short Term ◽

Content Type ◽

Global Indices ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact ◽

Affected Country

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the following: short-run and long-run associations between the terror-affected country’s stock market index and other global countries’ equity indices and gold; the volatility of stock market indices when one of the countries is affected by a terrorist attack; and the linkages between terrorism and the returns in the selected stock markets. Design/methodology/approach To study the impact of the Taj attack on other global indices, the authors selected top five countries’ stock market indices, namely, FTSE, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC and DAX. The short-run and long-run associations are also compared with gold. The authors used the autoregressive distributed lag model, LM test and bounds test for analyzing the short-run and long-run impact; ARCH family models to study the volatility impact; and the MAR model to study the impact on returns. Findings The authors found that all the global indices had a short-run association with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX and CAC also fell; that is, it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index. Research limitations/implications The authors studied the short-run and long-run associations with only five countries’ benchmark indices. Practical implications The authors found that all the global indices had long- and short-run associations with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Global indices like DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX and FTSE had a short-term association with the affected country’s index. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX, TSX, BVSP and CAC also fell; i.e., it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index. In all the relationships were mixed with respect to terror attacks, and GOLD took the lead run out of all the associations it had in the 16-year time span from 2000 to 2016. Social implications The research has got an important implication to the investors. It shows that patience is the key, as all the indices had only short-term associations with the BSE. It implies that investors’ returns will be negative in the short run, but if they continue investing, in the long run, the impact of terrorism tapers out and the returns will increase. Originality/value There is a lot of research done on the impact of the US attacks on the stock markets of other countries, but on the impact of the Taj attack in India, there is hardly any research.

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The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13020676 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 676

Author(s):

Ramiz ur Rehman ◽

Muhammad Zain ul Abidin ◽

Rizwan Ali ◽

Safwan Mohd Nor ◽

Muhammad Akram Naseem ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Function Analysis ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Individual Country ◽

Brics Countries ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

Short Run ◽

Equity Indices

This study investigates the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity indices with conventional indices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) individually and across all BRICS countries to better understand regional economic cooperation. Accordingly, we look at daily returns from 13 July 2013 to 28 February 2018 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG indices and MSCI composite indices of the respective countries. To analyze the integration between the ESG equity indices of the sampled countries with their regional and across regional conventional counterparts, the Johansen Co-integration test is employed in this study. Further, the vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to test the causality between the sampled time-series. The impulse response function analysis further explains the impulse responses of each country’s MSCI ESG returns to one standard deviation of innovations to MSCI composite returns of the same country and across countries. Finally, the extent of the MSCI composite returns’ impact on the MSCI ESG returns in the same country indices, and cross-regional indices is examined with variance decomposition analysis. The results suggest that all ESG equity indices are integrated with conventional indices in all BRICS countries. Furthermore, there is a short-or long-run causality between MSCI ESG and MSCI composite equity indices of China and South Africa. Moreover, the study finds only short-run causality between conventional and non-conventional equity indices of Brazil and Russia, whereas we find only long-run causality between India’s non-conventional and conventional equity indices. Finally, the study finds that the all-individual country MSCI ESG equity indices shows a long-run causality with MSCI composite equity indices of all other BRICS countries. The findings also confirm the economic and financial cooperation between the BRICS countries.

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International Portfolio Diversification Benefits among Developed and Emerging Markets within the Context of the Recent Global Financial Crisis

Handbook of Research on Strategic Business Infrastructure Development and Contemporary Issues in Finance - Advances in Finance, Accounting, and Economics ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-5154-8.ch013 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 162-185

Author(s):

Gülin Vardar ◽

Berna Aydoğan ◽

Ece Erdener Acar

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Emerging Stock Markets ◽

Long Run ◽

International Investors ◽

The Uk ◽

Market Interdependence ◽

The Impact

This chapter aims to examine the existence of dynamic linkages among the major emerging stock markets, namely Brazil, Hungary, China, Taiwan, Poland, and Turkey, as well as developed markets, particularly the US, the UK, and Germany during the period 2004-2013. Potential dynamic long-run interdependencies are investigated using Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration test and causal relationship through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Moreover, to capture the impact of the recent global crisis on the cointegrating relationship among the developed and emerging markets, the sample period is divided into pre- and post-crisis sub periods. The empirical findings show that, after the crisis period, the direction of the long-run relationship varies, and furthermore, the stock market interdependence increases, supporting herding behavior of investors during the stock market crash period. Therefore, the increasing dynamic co-movements in the period after the crisis provide direct implications for the international investors due to potential limitation in the international risk diversification and the achievement of greater portfolio returns through global investment.

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Long and Short-Term Dynamic Relationship between Macedonian and Croatian Stock Markets

Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business ◽

10.1515/zireb-2017-0014 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 11-20

Author(s):

Julijana Angelovska

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Directional Pattern ◽

Short Term ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Common Trend ◽

Significant Relationships ◽

Long Run ◽

Causality Tests ◽

Economic Ties

Abstract The aim of this study is the empirical investigation of the long-run relations and the short-term dynamics between two Balkan stock markets: Macedonian and Croatian. The presence of long run common trend between the Macedonian and Croatian stock market indices is identified by applying Johansen’s cointegration maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, while potential causal relations are examined by employing Granger’s causality tests. Data sample spans from January 3rd, 2005 to March 31st, 2017. The stock market indices were found to be co-integrated with significant relationships. A bi-directional pattern of causality is documented between the Macedonian and Croatian returns. This pattern is remarkably stable and suggests significant economic ties between the investors in Macedonian and Croatian stock markets. The findings are important for the investors meaning that they cannot gain diversification benefits of investing in the Croatian or Macedonian stock market.

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Intensity of shock transmission amid US-BRICS markets

International Journal of Emerging Markets ◽

10.1108/ijoem-04-2013-0063 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 311-328 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

P. Lakshmi ◽

S. Visalakshmi ◽

Kavitha Shanmugam

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Subprime Mortgage ◽

Content Type ◽

Brics Countries ◽

Long Run ◽

The Us ◽

The Usa ◽

Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the intensity of transmission of shocks from USA to BRICS countries in the long-run and short-run deviations and swiftness of recovery during US subprime mortgage crisis. This analysis enables the authors to explore the evolving patterns of relationships between these markets and examine whether their co-movements altered either in response to international shocks that originated in advanced markets like USA or due to their domestic fluctuations. Design/methodology/approach – Employing data of daily stock market indices (open and close) of BRICS countries for the period January 2, 2001 to May 31, 2012, this paper examines the interactions and characteristics of price movements of BRICS with US market by applying co-integration tests, vector error correction model and Granger causality relationship. The daily stock market indices data are derived from respective stock exchange web sites. Findings – The results exhibit that both long-run co-integration relationships and short-run Granger causality relationships exist between the stock markets of US-BRICS. Furthermore, this nexus is amplified in the short-run during 2007-2009, when the subprime mortgage financial crisis in the USA cropped up. This finding lends support to the prominence of developed (US) market links in the proliferation of persistent co-movements of BRICS stock markets. Research limitations/implications – The findings imply an increasing degree of global market integration due to quick dissemination of global shocks originating from developed market like USA, and swift recovery which can be attributed to the increased resilience, consistent with the moderated level of domestically driven risk in the BRICS markets. In spite of their similarities, long-run and short-run interdependences with the US stock market exhibit differences among the BRICS. This can be attributed to the regional heterogeneity in long-run risk and return co-movements with the USA. Practical implications – Changes from the US index easily affect these stock markets in the short-run, which implies that the US index may act as a leading indicator for investing funds in BRICS markets. Originality/value – This study would enable the authors to understand whether BRICS economies actually remain resilient to adverse developments in USA and could serve as alternative investment destinations for global portfolio diversification.

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Transmission Mechanism of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Price: The Case of Afghanistan

Asian Social Science ◽

10.5539/ass.v16n4p1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Ajmal Arian ◽

Arabi U.

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Import Price ◽

Variance Decomposition ◽

Long Run ◽

Effective Exchange ◽

Short Run ◽

Pass Through ◽

Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽

Effective Exchange Rate

This article investigates the mechanism of exchange rate pass-through to the prices in the context of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s economy. This study explored the magnitude and speed of the pass-through effect on the prices by analyzing quarterly data from 2003 Q1 to 2019 Q2 considering five variables (viz., world food price index, foreign reserves, money supply, import price, and nominal effective exchange rate) based on the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) with the cointegration and innovation accounting tools such has impulse response function and variance decomposition. The findings of the study suggest that the exchange rate pass-through in Afghanistan is incomplete. The import price is highly responsive in the short-run and moderately responsive an increasingly smooth movement in the long-run. However, CPI in the short-run with swift positive respond but the long-run smooth increasing movement. Furthermore, variance decomposition evidence shows that import price is affected by FR, NEER, CPI, and MS in both short-run and long-run, but the CPI strongly lagged by its variance, WFP, NEER, import price, and MS.

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Are Banks And Stock Markets Positively Related? Empirical Evidence From South Africa

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v26i6.325 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 26 (6) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nicholas M Odhiambo

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Stock Market ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Real Income ◽

Market Development ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Critical Question ◽

Stock Market Development ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

<a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1">In this study, we examine the relationship between banks and stock market development in South Africa.  The study attempts to answer one critical question: Are banks and stock markets positively related in South Africa? The bank development is proxied by the ratio of the domestic credit to the private sector to GDP (DCP/GDP), while the stock market development is proxied by the ratio of the stock market capitalisation to GDP (CAP/GDP).Unlike the majority of the previous studies, the current study uses the newly introduced ARDL-Bounds testing approach, as proposed by Pesaran  et al. (2001), to examine this linkage. The empirical results show that there is a distinct positive relationship between banks and stock markets in South Africa. The results apply irrespective of whether the model is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that in the short run, the stock market development in South Africa is positively determined by the level of savings, but negatively affected by the rate of inflation and the lagged values of the stock market development. However, in the long run, the stock market is positively determined by real income and the inflation rate.  </a>

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An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

Economic Consultant ◽

10.46224/ecoc.2021.1.5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 33 (1) ◽

pp. 40-56

Author(s):

Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽

◽

Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽

Keyword(s):

Structural Break ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Policy Formulation ◽

Predictive Test ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Short Term ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

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