Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec

2015 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Gombault ◽  
C. A. Madramootoo ◽  
A. R. Michaud ◽  
I. Beaudin ◽  
M. F. Sottile ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Nutrient Losses ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Gombault, C., Madramootoo, C. A., Michaud, A. R., Beaudin, I., Sottile, M. F., Chikhaoui, M. and Ngwa, F. F. 2015. Impacts of climate change on nutrient losses from the Pike River watershed of southern Québec. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 337–358. The impacts of climate change on water quality in the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads into the northern arm of Lake Champlain, were simulated for the time horizon 2041–2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) customized to Québec agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climate data simulated with the Fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. Potential mean climate-induced changes in sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen yield projected by these scenarios were then analyzed for the 2050 horizon. In addition, the impacts of the different sources of climate projection uncertainty were assessed by comparing climate model initial conditions, and climate model physical structure effects on the hydrochemical projections. Only one climate scenario projected a significant increase in mean annual total phosphorus [10 metrics tons (t) yr−1 or 14%] and total nitrogen (260 t yr−1 or 17%) loads. However, when shorter time spans (seasonal and monthly scales) were considered, several significant changes were detected, especially in winter. Sediment and nutrient loadings, in winter, were predicted to become three to four times higher than current levels. These increases were attributed to a greater vulnerability of soils to erosion in winter due to the decrease in the snowpack, early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events, and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

scholarly journals The ClimEx Project: A 50-Member Ensemble of Climate Change Projections at 12-km Resolution over Europe and Northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Leduc ◽  
Alain Mailhot ◽  
Anne Frigon ◽  
Jean-Luc Martel ◽  
Ralf Ludwig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Canadian Regional Climate Model ◽  
Northeastern North America

AbstractThe Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over two domains, Europe (EU) and northeastern North America (NNA), and the simulations extend from 1950 to 2099, following the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of validation, warm biases are found over the EU and NNA domains during summer, whereas during winter cold and warm biases appear over EU and NNA, respectively. For precipitation, simulations are generally wetter than the observations but slight dry biases also occur in summer. Climate change projections for 2080–99 (relative to 2000–19) show temperature changes reaching 8°C in summer over some parts of Europe, and exceeding 12°C in northern Québec during winter. For precipitation, central Europe will become much dryer during summer (−2 mm day−1) and wetter during winter (>1.2 mm day−1). Similar changes are observed over NNA, although summer drying is not as prominent. Projected changes in temperature interannual variability were also investigated, generally showing increasing and decreasing variability during summer and winter, respectively. Temperature variability is found to increase by more than 70% in some parts of central Europe during summer and to increase by 80% in the northernmost part of Québec during the month of May as the snow cover becomes subject to high year-to-year variability in the future. Finally, CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE are compared with respect to extreme precipitation, showing evidence that the higher resolution of CRCM5-LE allows a more realistic representation of local extremes, especially over coastal and mountainous regions.

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