<b>Objective </b>Bariatric
surgery is associated with diabetes remission and prevention of
diabetes-related complications. The scores ABCD, DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem, DiaBetter and
IMS were developed to predict short to medium-term diabetes remission after bariatric
surgery. However, they have not been tested for predicting durable remission
nor the risk of diabetes complications, nor compared with diabetes duration alone.
<p><b>Research
Design and Methods </b>We identified 363<b>
</b>individuals from the surgically treated group in the prospective Swedish
Obese Subjects (SOS) study with preoperative type 2 diabetes and for whom data (preoperative
age, BMI, C-peptide, HbA1c, oral diabetes medication(s), insulin use, and
diabetes duration) were available for calculation of remission scores. Partial
remission (after 2 and 10 years) was defined as blood glucose <6.1 mmol/L or
HbA1c <6.5% (48 mmol/mol) and no
diabetes medication. Information on diabetes complications (at baseline and over
15 years of follow-up) was obtained from national health registers. Discrimination
was evaluated by area under receiving operator characteristic curves (AUROCs).</p>
<p><b>Results </b>For 2-year
diabetes remission, AUROCs were between 0.79 and 0.88 for remission scores and
0.84 for diabetes duration alone. After 10 years, the predictive ability of
scores decreased markedly (AUROCs between 0.70-0.76) and no score had higher
predictive capacity than diabetes duration alone (AUROC=0.73). For development
of microvascular and macrovascular diabetes complications over 15 years, AUROCs
for remission scores were 0.70-0.80 and 0.62-0.71, respectively, and AUROCs for
diabetes duration alone were 0.77 and 0.66, respectively. </p>
<b>Conclusions </b>Remission scores and diabetes duration are good
predictors of short-term diabetes remission. However, for durable remission and
risk of complications, remission scores and diabetes duration alone have
limited predictive ability.