scholarly journals Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Rodolfo Membreño Alcántara ◽  
Jennifer López López ◽  
Kenneth Jiménez Chang
Keyword(s):  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Modelo Lineal ◽  
Structural Vector

En el presente estudio se estiman los multiplicadores simétricos y asimétricos de gasto e ingreso del gobierno central para Nicaragua. Para el modelo lineal se hace uso del modelo Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR, por sus siglas en inglés) para identificar los multiplicadores fiscales sobre el producto, el consumo y la inversión. En el caso de los multiplicadores asimétricos se utiliza un modelo de proyecciones locales. Los resultados del modelo lineal encuentran multiplicadores de gasto e ingreso del gobierno central menores a la unidad para el producto interno bruto (PIB), consumo e inversión privada. Asimismo, los resultados apuntan a que el gasto de capital tiene un mayor efecto sobre el producto. En el caso del modelo no lineal, se encontró una ligera asimetría en los multiplicadores de gasto, mientras que los multiplicadores de ingresos fueron negativos, independientemente del estado en el que se encontrara la economía.

scholarly journals A Spatial Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive Model with Interactive Effects and Its Simulation

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 883
Author(s):  
Yaqing Liu ◽  
Hongbing Ouyang ◽  
Xiaolu Wei
Keyword(s):  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Spatial Panel ◽  
The Common ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Structural Vector

The existing spatial panel structural vector auto-regressive model can effectively capture the time and spatial dynamic dependence of endogenous variables. However, the hypothesis that the common factors have the same effect for all spatial units is unreasonable. Therefore, incorporating time effects, spatial effects, and time-individual effects, this paper develops a more general spatial panel structural vector autoregressive model with interactive effects (ISpSVAR) that can reflect the different effects of common factors on different spatial units. Additionally, based on whether or not the common factors can be observed, this paper proposes procedures to estimate ISpSVAR separately and studies the finite sample properties of estimators by Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed ISpSVAR model and its estimation procedures.

Credit supply shocks and the Great Depression in Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Breitenlechner ◽  
Daniel Gründler ◽  
Gabriel P Mathy ◽  
Johann Scharler
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Expansion Phase ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Credit Supply ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract At the peak of the Great Depression in mid-1931, Germany experienced a severe banking crisis. We study to what extent credit constraints contributed to the downturn by fitting a structural vector autoregressive model with data from January 1925 to September 1935. Adverse credit supply shocks contributed strongly to the downturn especially at the time of the 1931 banking crisis. Before that, credit supply shocks had also contributed to the expansion phase preceding the depression. We also find that aggregate demand and U.S. business cycle shocks were the primary drivers of the German Great Depression.

scholarly journals Choosing between identification schemes in noisy-news models

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua C. C. Chan ◽  
Eric Eisenstat ◽  
Gary Koop
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
The One ◽  
Small Models ◽  
Structural Vector

AbstractThis paper is about identifying structural shocks in noisy-news models using structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models. We develop a new identification scheme and efficient Bayesian methods for estimating the resulting SVARMA. We discuss how our identification scheme differs from the one which is used in existing theoretical and empirical models. Our main contributions lie in the development of methods for choosing between identification schemes. We estimate specifications with up to 20 variables using US macroeconomic data. We find that our identification scheme is preferred by the data, particularly as the size of the system is increased and that noise shocks generally play a negligible role. However, small models may overstate the importance of noise shocks.

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Kronen ◽  
Ansgar Belke
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

AbstractIn light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of policy and stock market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production and investment. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to gain first insights that may help to identify avenues for further research. We find that stock market volatility shows a fairly consistently negative effect. However, the implications of policy uncertainty for Europe and the euro area in particular are not so straightforward.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Superneutrality of Money Revised: the Extended European Evidence

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleg Deev ◽  
Martin Hodula
Keyword(s):  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Additional Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Large Panel ◽  
European Economies ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract This article investigates the validity of the money superneutrality concept for the large panel of European economies. While focusing exclusively on endogenous growth theories including the Mundell-Tobin effect, we examine the long-run response of real output to a permanent inflation shock in every studied country using a structural vector autoregressive framework. For the majority of countries in our sample, the longrun superneutrality concept is confirmed since the original increase/decrease in output growth fades in time. We also test the additional hypothesis of whether the group of countries with smaller in-sample inflation mean forms the exception to the long-run money superneutrality. As the result, modern economies might be better described from the viewpoint of Sidrauski.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document