Reproduction of 'Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment'

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t – 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

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Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Journal of Political Economy ◽

10.1086/421174 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 112 (4) ◽

pp. 725-753 ◽

Cited By ~ 1031

Author(s):

Edward Miguel ◽

Shanker Satyanath ◽

Ernest Sergenti

Keyword(s):

Instrumental Variables ◽

Civil Conflict ◽

Economic Shocks ◽

Instrumental Variables Approach

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Economic Shocks & Civil Conflict Onset in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1981-2010

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2418953 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Stijn van Weezel

Keyword(s):

Civil Conflict ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Economic Shocks ◽

Sub Saharan

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Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

American Economic Journal Applied Economics ◽

10.1257/app.3.4.228 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 3 (4) ◽

pp. 228-232 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

Edward Miguel ◽

Shanker Satyanath

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Political Violence ◽

Civil Conflict ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Economic Shocks ◽

Theoretical Justification ◽

Rainfall Variation ◽

Annual Changes ◽

Conflict In Africa

Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

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Metamorphoses of memory of the the Russian-Serbian Brotherhood of War in Modern Serbia

MGIMO Review of International Relations ◽

10.24833/2071-8160-2020-4-73-142-156 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 142-156

Author(s):

A. Yu. Timofeev

Keyword(s):

World War Ii ◽

Civil War ◽

Party System ◽

Historical Memory ◽

Civil Conflict ◽

Second World War ◽

World War ◽

Post War ◽

The Stability ◽

Second World

The article considers the perception of World War II in modern Serbian society. Despite the stability of Serbian-Russian shared historical memory, the attitudes of both countries towards World wars differ. There is a huge contrast in the perception of the First and Second World War in Russian and Serbian societies. For the Serbs the events of World War II are obscured by the memories of the Civil War, which broke out in the country immediately after the occupation in 1941 and continued several years after 1945. Over 70% of Yugoslavs killed during the Second World War were slaughtered by the citizens of former Kingdom of Yugoslavia. The terror unleashed by Tito in the first postwar decade in 1944-1954 was proportionally bloodier than Stalin repressions in the postwar USSR. The number of emigrants from Yugoslavia after the establishment of the Tito's dictatorship was proportionally equal to the number of refugees from Russia after the Civil War (1,5-2% of prewar population). In the post-war years, open manipulations with the obvious facts of World War II took place in Tito's Yugoslavia. In the 1990s the memories repressed during the communist years were set free and publicly debated. After the fall of the one-party system the memory of World War II was devalued. The memory of the Russian-Serbian military fraternity forged during the World War II began to revive in Serbia due to the foreign policy changes in 2008. In October 2008 the President of Russia paid a visit to Serbia which began the process of (re) construction of World War II in Serbian historical memory. According to the public opinion surveys, a positive attitude towards Russia and Russians in Serbia strengthens the memories on general resistance to Nazism with memories of fratricide during the civil conflict events of 1941-1945 still dominating in Serbian society.

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