The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on International Relations

The automation of human activity has been growing every year for the past ten years thanks to AI algorithms, increasing the amount of big data and computing power. Today, artificial intelligence technologies are used in everyday life, automating processes previously performed by humans. Moreover, it is believed that these technologies can reach human cognitive abilities and even surpass them at some point. In this regard, questions arise what the future of humanity will look like in conjunction with AI technologies. If earlier, most of the research was more technical, then in the last three to four years, there has been much scientific research in terms of disciplines in which the influence of artificial intelligence is possible. International relations are no exception. The purpose of the article is to review publications on how artificial intelligence technologies affect international relations? Within the framework of the article, six books and eight articles were considered. The author concludes that AI technologies seriously impact international relations in socio-economic and political terms. The socio-economic aspect includes the consequences of automated capitalism on world politics, the rise in unemployment, the emergence of a "hopeless" class, the polarization of society, and more. AI technologies influences strategic stability, nuclear deterrence, and cyber warfare.

Joint Initiatives Instead of Multilateralism: A New Reality for the WTO?

The article examines the complexities of the negotiation function of the WTO, in which consensus in decision-making plays an important role. The author systematizes the possibilities and limitations for incorporating the results of plurilateral negotiations (i.e., with a limited number of participants) held within the framework of the so-called joint statement initiatives into the organization's law. The article also analyzes the prospects for integrating specific joint initiatives (internal regulation in services, simplification of investments in development, e-commerce) into the WTO system. The article emphasizes that despite standard features, all initiatives are unique in their content, format, and history and are at different stages of readiness, for Russia, which takes an active part in these joint initiatives, bringing the negotiations to a conclusion. The article criticizes joint initiatives from their primary opponents (India and South Africa), who insist that plurilateral initiatives' participation ignores existing multilateral mandates reached by consensus. Thus, they destroy the multilateral system.The purpose of the article is to review conceptual and practical approaches to forming new trade rules in the WTO system in the context of the multilateral crisis. The author concludes that plurilateral agreements can become a way out of the crisis in the negotiation function of the WTO, as well as the basis for future trade agreements in the system of organization. However, for plurilateralism to be effective and sustainable, it must be linked to multilateral norms and principles. Any plurilateral approach must allow flexibility in forming the basis for negotiating trade rules at multilateral level. It seems that if in the near future the WTO does not take decisive actions to adjust the rules and procedures for the new agreements, the prospects for advancing negotiations and maintaining the relevance of the leading institution of the international trading system will become even bleaker.

Expert-analytical Support of Foreign Policy Activities

The article presents the final results of the project studying the system of expert and analytical support for foreign policy decisions. The project is devoted to conducting a survey and a set of interviews with employees of government bodies (leaders and chief specialists) who are involved in the process of preparing and making foreign policy decisions. The article contains the officials’ assessment of the main challenges when interacting with the scientific and expert community, as well as a "desired image" of such interaction.The study was held in two stages (stage I in February-October 2020, stage II-in January-August 2021) in the form of a survey with a set of follow-up interviews for a more detailed interpretation of the data obtained. The interviewees included 24 employees of federal executive bodies (the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia and Rossotrudnichestvo; departments of international cooperation of line ministries, agencies and services); offices of the chambers of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation (departments providing international and inter-parliamentary cooperation). All participants of the study are in positions of the "managers" category or are part of the group of "chief specialists", that is, they have experience in decision-making process and/or in elaborating them. The survey and interviews were anonymous. The research is within structural-functional, institutional and regulatory approaches. The authors note that informational materials with low level of generalization and lacking recommendations and forecasts will never replace genuine analytics and expertise. Given the development of artificial intelligence, generalizing information will be automatized. As a result, expertise has to be of better quality.

Academic Diplomacy in Relations between Russia and Pacific Asia countries

Analysts usually consider only strategic, geopolitical, or economic aspects of Russia’s turn to the East. Humanitarian contacts and public diplomacy, including academic diplomacy, remain mainly on the periphery of research on the Asian vector of Russian foreign policy. Despite significant achievements in educational cooperation with non-Western countries during the Soviet period, after the end of the bipolar period, Russia turned to European academic diplomacy. To some extent, it helped Russia move forward in educational and research cooperation with the EU. However, it did not help remove all the stumbling blocks on Russia’s way to internationalize its education and science. Alongside interaction with Asia, which became home to many world-class universities by the 20th and 21st centuries, Russia’s cooperation with Europe has significantly lagged.Nevertheless, as the current situation demonstrates, a more proactive Russian academic and educational diplomacy in Asia is essential for successful economic cooperation and a comprehensive Russian presence in Asia. The paper, therefore, seeks to analyze the dynamics of Russian approaches to educational diplomacy, based on the qualitative and quantitative assessments to scrutinize the main trends of the higher education development in Asia and to define the current state and prospects of Russia’s educational cooperation with Pacific Asia. The paper argues that to be successful, Russia’s turn to the East must have a better-developed educational component, which considers the newest trends of higher education development at the international level. These steps are essential for keeping Russian education competitive and implementing Russian foreign policy in the current circumstances.

Anattempt to rebuild the world "in the American way"

Trump’s foreign policy was controversial, resulting in division into its supporters and adversaries both at national and international levels. Donald Trump managed to be flexible in relations with the Legislative, ignoring the democratic majority in the House of Representatives. However, it was possible only before the Covid-19 pandemic. Donald Trump’s foreign policy prioritized American capital that determined US relations with the EU, Canada, and Latin America. As for relations with Russia, they were defined by the Ukrainian crisis. Disarmament is still a cornerstone in Russian American relations. The US has complicated relations with countries in Latin America, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf despite all efforts. The UN’s reform and the Security Council, where the three great powers primarily make decisions, are still questioned. The US divides Europe into three parts; Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Russia with Belarus. These Europes have different views on US foreign policy. Republican administration aimed at the expansion of the national power and provision of global leadership. However, the implementation methods were questionable and led to some unpleasant consequences for the US allies. Some of them decided to wait, some prepared for the worst, some tried to adapt to Trump’s policy since it reflected the long-term changes of the US standing in the world regardless of the party or the president. As a result, such policy led to the defeat of the Republicans and brought Joe Biden to power.

Russian-Speaking Population in Far-Abroad Countries

Attracting compatriots living abroad is strategically vital in the context of continuing depopulation in Russia. However, a multilayered definition of the category of a compatriot creates blurred boundaries. As a result, it is somewhat problematic to assess the number of Russian compatriots living abroad objectively. The paper presents the results of a study of the socio-demographic structure of the Russian-speaking population in far-abroad countries. The statistical data of Rosstat, the UN, Eurostat, OECD, and national statistical services of foreign countries were analyzed to assess the number of Russian-speaking populations and determine the main emigration channels and geography of resettlement. Within the study, the authors have conducted an expert survey of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Embassies of the Russian Federation, and representative offices of Rossotrudnichestvo in foreign countries. The survey results indicate the heterogeneous structure of Russian-speaking communities by reasons of emigration, socio-economic status, degree of integration into the host society, gender, and ethnic composition, and geography of resettlement. However, state policy analysis towards compatriots shows that it targets people who already demonstrate an interest in Russia, participate in Russian-speaking organizations, and get involved in cultural, religious, and sports events. There is a need for cooperation and interaction with Russian-speaking people. Moreover, given that young people adapt and get integrated more efficiently, it is essential to prevent the loss of cultural capital of Russian-speaking youth living abroad. It is necessary to develop and implement a more differentiated approach towards interaction with the Russian-speaking population.

Defining Major Oil and Gas Companies’ Development Strategies in the Era of Energy Transition

The energy market today is turbulent. Nations follow different energy trends and shape their policies towards Energy Transition and sustainable development. To avoid risks and pursue opportunities, oil and gas companies must adapt their longterm strategies to macro-trends and national regulations.The study's objective is to investigate how major oil and gas companies’ development trends correlate with trends and strategies at the national level. The hypothesis is that oil and gas companies’ operations and innovation portfolios are linked to national energy mixes and environmental regulations. To do this, the authors examined the energy markets of 54 countries with the focus on Brazil, Canada, China, EU, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UK, the USA, operational indicators, and innovation development trends of 18 major oil and gas companies. The production volumes have been translated into an ordinal scale and analyzed with the use of Spearman correlation.The study confirmed a weak correlation between oil and gas companies' operational indicators and national strategies. Companies operating in countries with strict environmental regulations, primarily in the European Economic Area, have been more likely to adapt their businesses to energy transition while building up oil and gas production; they also have had more diversified innovation portfolios. As more countries moved towards later generations of environmental regulations, the increase in renewable energy investments was found in more oil and gas majors.

Factors of Socio-Economic Development of Partially Recognized and Unrecognized Republics of the Caucasus

Particular and general factors determine the dynamics and trends of endogenous development of three unrecognized and partially recognized republics of the Caucasus the Republic of South Ossetia (RSO), Abkhazia, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The article identifies critical factors and assesses prospects for endogenous socio-economic development of an unrecognized and partially recognized Republics of the Caucasus. It uses comparative and statistical methods, namely, one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the Kraskel-Wallis Criterion. A database developed for this study uses a set of indicators of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2007 to 2019 as a formalized universal and balanced system of global determinants. We found that differences in the achieved UN SDGs indicators can be accounted for by the variety of each state's initially socio-economic situation (the effect of a differentiated base). At the same time, the research shows that the dynamics of the development of the Caucasian republics are similar, which determines a commonality of trends of their future (while maintaining current conditions and circumstances). The study results expand our understanding of the development of unrecognized and partially recognized states. It shows that one has to consider this propensity of the Caucasian states to self-development when justifying measures for improving their socioeconomic situation and increasing the effectiveness of investment programs implemented jointly with the Russian Federation to promote the socio-economic development of the RSO and the Republic of Abkhazia.

Anti-immigration Agenda of Populist Parties in Switzerland

The article analyzes the problem of right-wing populism in Switzerland. The study of the features of the country's political and electoral system highlights the issues of its immigration policy and relations with the European Union. The authors argue that the phenomenon of Swiss populism should be considered in a broader context, in connection with which attention is paid not only to the Swiss people's party, the Ticino League and the Geneva citizens ' Movement, but also to the populist parties of countries belonging to the Alpine macroregion – the Austrian freedom party (Austria) and the League (Italy). A discursive analysis of the programs shows that the anti-immigrant program is an essential part of the identity of right-wing populists. All of them are opposed to European integration and globalization, linking them to increased ethnic and religious tensions, unemployment and increased crime. At the same time, a special feature of Swiss parties is the fact that they position migration as a phenomenon mainly associated with cross-border movement of European citizens. Already complex, during the COVID-19 pandemic, this issue has become even more acute, and has become an integral part of their agenda. Meanwhile, the 2015-2018 migration crisis that preceded the pandemic allowed the Swiss people's party to strengthen its identity as a right-wing populist neoliberal party with a strong localist and conservative program aimed at cultural dominance over migrants. The authors also note that the Germanic focus on environmental protection is part of the populist agenda of right-wing regional parties, although it is usually characteristic of the left parties.

The Growing Role of Re-export in International Trade

The article aims to determine the essence, role, and significance of re-export in international trade using its opportunities to develop Russian exports and imports.The authors define re-export and its key characteristics, analyze the main factors of re-export trade development, study re-export dynamics compared to the commodity supplies dynamics within the framework of ordinary exports. When exporting highly differentiated goods, it is the role of knowledge about the terms, forms, and trading methods on the international market that increases. Specialized trading companies possess this knowledge; they create large transport and logistics centers in the countries crossing international trade routes, including extensive consignment warehouses.The article studies the dynamics of re-export flows and makes calculations, based on which it concludes that the volume of these commercial operations is growing faster in the world market. At the same time, large re-export operations are now performed not only by small states located at the intersection of sea roads but also by large, industrialized states: the USA, Great Britain, Italy, etc.The authors conclude that an essential factor in the development of re-export was the growth of trade restrictions imposed primarily for political reasons. Such restrictions apply in trade relations between India and Pakistan, Israel and the Arab countries, between some states of the Persian Gulf, etc. The anti-Russian sanctions adopted in the United States and other Western states inadvertently contribute to the development of re-exports, since many trading companies, including Western ones conducting international commercial operations, do not consider themselves bound by unilateral decisions of the anti-Russian part of the US government. Many US trading companies themselves are actively involved in re-export operations without disclosing partners. Given the undesirability of disseminating information on re-export operations, many countries actively involved in re-export have stopped submitting data on their re-exports to international statistical agencies.The authors concentrate on the re-export operation of the United Arab Emirates, where are thousands of trading firms with transport and logistics infrastructure and consignment warehouses. Russia is involved in re-export trade, mainly through the UAE companies, carrying on export and import operations on the world market. The authors conclude that expanding the practice of re-export increases sales of national products in the world market.