Does Multidimensional Poverty Affect Depression? Evidence from Peru

The number of people in low- and middle-income countries who suffer from depression is increasing, and a significant proportion of people in these countries live in poverty. We estimated the effect of living in multidimensional poverty on experiencing symptoms associated with major depression using the 2018 Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey. We used an instrumental variables approach to overcome the potential endogeneity bias caused by the simultaneous relationship between multidimensional poverty and depression. We found that living in multidimensional poverty significantly increases depression symptom severity. This has urgent policy implications for low- and middle-income countries with limited provision of mental health services.

The Impact of Plastic Money Use on VAT Compliance: Evidence from EU Countries

This paper examines the impact of credit and debit card usage on VAT compliance using annual national level data for 26 European Union countries from 2000 to 2016. Exploiting spatio temporal variation in plastic money use along with an instrumental variables approach, we find that a 1% increase in card payments reduces VAT gaps 0.51 percentage points whereas a 1% increase in cash withdrawals increases VAT gaps by 0.6 percentage points. Our contribution lies in using more adequate measures of VAT compliance gap and in accounting for potential confounders such as the ex-ante enforcement capacity of tax administrations.

Money laundering, food activities and mafia: evidences from the Italian provinces

Purpose According to the INTERPOL definition, money laundering is: “any act or attempted act to conceal or disguise the identity of illegally obtained proceeds so that they appear to have originated from legitimate sources”. Along this line, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the link amongst money laundering, mafia and food activities, in the Italian provinces. Design/methodology/approach By using annual data over the period 2010 to 2018, the author estimates balanced panel data using the instrumental variables approach. The analysis includes both fixed and random effects, as well as robustness checks. Findings The main findings of this paper reveal that, in most Italian provinces, money launderers are deterred by the probability of being identified. In particular, the deterrent action of police and investigative forces seems to be very effective. Moreover, the results of the empirical analysis show that mafia-type organisations and food activities are positively correlated with money laundering. Originality/value This paper aims to provide a specific study on the link between apparently legal activities (food and beverage) and money laundering; a link that has so far been analysed mainly on a theoretical level. Moreover, it provides several insights in terms of policy implications.

Security Transitions

How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents’ perceptions of local security. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition, and employs a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact. We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history, and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. (JEL D74, F51, F52, O17)

The Effect of Schooling on Women's Overweight and Obesity: A Natural Experiment in Nigeria

An extensive social scientific literature has documented the importance of schooling in preventing overweight and obesity among women. However, prior quasi-experimental studies investigating the causal effect of schooling on women's overweight and obesity have focused almost exclusively on high-income countries (HICs). Schooling effects may differ in low- or middle-income countries (LMICs), where information about the harms of being overweight is often sparse and where larger body sizes can be socially valued. Here I evaluate the causal impact of schooling on women's probability of being overweight or obese in an LMIC, Nigeria, using data from the 2003, 2008, and 2013 Demographic Health Surveys. In 1976, the Nigerian government abolished primary school fees and increased funding for primary school construction, creating quasi-random variation in access to primary school according to an individual's age and the number of newly constructed schools in their state of residence. I exploit both sources of variation and use a two-stage instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of increased schooling on the probability of being overweight or obese. Each additional year of schooling increased the probability of being overweight or obese by 6%, but this effect estimate was not statistically different from zero. This finding differs from the protective effect of schooling documented in several HICs, suggesting that contextual factors play an important role calibrating the influence of additional schooling on overweight or obesity. Furthermore, my findings contrast markedly with the positive correlation between schooling and overweight/obesity identified in previous studies in Nigeria, suggesting that studies failing to account for selection bias overestimate the causal effect of schooling. More robust causal research is needed to examine the effect of schooling on overweight and obesity in LMIC contexts.

Legacies of Resistance: Mobilization Against Organized Crime in Mexico

What are the legacies of armed resistance? Why do some communities engage in armed mobilization in response to violence, disorder, and insecurity, while others under very similar conditions do not? Focusing on mobilization against organized crime in contemporary Mexico, we argue that historical experiences of armed resistance can have lasting effects on local preferences, networks, and capacities, which can facilitate armed collective action under conditions of rampant insecurity in the long run. Empirically, we study the Cristero rebellion in the early 20th century and grassroots anti-crime mobilization in Mexico during recent years. Using an instrumental variables approach, we show that communities that pushed back against state incursions almost a century earlier were more likely to rise up against organized crime in contemporary times.

Offspring Educational Attainment and Older Parents' Cognition in Mexico

Population-level disparities in later-life cognitive health point to the importance of family resources. Although the bulk of prior work on the topic has established the directional flow of resources from parents to offspring, the linked lives perspective raises the question of how offspring resources could affect parental health as well. This study examines whether adult children's education influences older parents' (aged 50+) cognitive health in Mexico, where schooling reforms have contributed to significant gains in the educational achievements of recent birth cohorts. Harnessing a change in compulsory school laws and applying an instrumental variables approach, we found that each year of offspring schooling was associated with higher overall cognition among parents but was less predictive across different cognitive functioning domains. More offspring schooling improved parents' cognitive abilities in verbal learning, verbal fluency, and orientation, but not in visual scanning, visuospatial ability, or visual memory. The beneficial effects of offspring schooling on those cognitive domains are more salient for mothers than for fathers, suggesting potential gendered effects in the influence of offspring schooling. The results remained robust to controls for parent-child contact and geographic proximity, suggesting other avenues through which offspring education could affect parental health and a pathway for future research. Our findings contribute to growing research stressing the causal influence of familial educational attainment on population health.