scholarly journals Fiscal Policy and Private Sector Saving Behavior: Tests of Ricardian Equivalence in Some Developing Economies

1987 ◽  
Vol 87 (51) ◽  
pp. i ◽  
Author(s):  
International Monetary Fund
2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (9) ◽  
pp. 1927-1945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raju Huidrom ◽  
M. Ayhan Kose ◽  
Franziska L. Ohnsorge

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chetan Ghate ◽  
Debojyoti Mazumder

Purpose Governments in both developing and developed economies play an active role in labor markets in the form of providing both formal public sector jobs and employment through public workfare programs. The authors refer to this as employment targeting. The purpose of the paper is to consider different labor market effects of employment targeting in a stylized model of a developing economy. In the context of a simple search and matching friction model, the authors show that the propensity for the public sector to target more employment can increase the unemployment rate in the economy and lead to an increase in the size of the informal sector. Design/methodology/approach The model is an application of a search and matching model of labor market frictions, where agents have heterogeneous abilities. The authors introduce a public sector alongside the private sector in the economy. Wage in the private sector is determined through Nash bargaining, whereas the public sector wage is exogenously fixed. In this setup, the public sector hiring rate influences private sector job creation and hence the overall employment rate of the economy. As an extension, the authors model the informal sector coupled with the other two sectors. This resembles developing economies. Then, the authors check the overall labor market effects of employment targeting through public sector intervention. Findings In the context of a simple search and matching friction model with heterogeneous agents, the authors show that the propensity for the public sector to target more employment can increase the unemployment rate in the economy and lead to an increase in the size of the informal sector. Employment targeting can, therefore, have perverse effects on labor market outcomes. The authors also find that it is possible that the private sector wage falls as a result of an increase in the public sector hiring rate, which leads to more job creation in the private sector. Originality/value What is less understood in the literature is the impact of employment targeting on the size of the informal sector in developing economies. The authors fill this gap and show that public sector intervention can have perverse effects on overall job creation and the size of the informal sector. Moreover, a decrease in the private sector wage due to a rise in public sector hiring reverses the consensus findings in the search and matching literature which show that an increase in public sector employment disincentivizes private sector vacancy postings.


2017 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Ohnsorge ◽  
Shu Yu

Benign financing conditions since the global financial crisis and, more recently, rising financing needs have fueled a rapid increase in credit to the nonfinancial private sector, especially to the corporate sector in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). In this paper, we first compare post-crisis credit booms with pre-crisis episodes of credit booms and document some distinctive features of post-crisis credit booms. We find that, credit booms in commodity-importing EMDEs in the immediate wake of the global financial crisis have subsided since 2012 but have left a legacy of credit to the nonfinancial private sector that has been considerably higher than in previous credit booms. In contrast, since 2014, credit growth in several commodity-exporting EMDEs has been near the pace observed in past credit booms. We then benchmark current credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios against thresholds identified in the literature as early warning indicators. Most EMDEs are still some distance away from those thresholds. However, since recent credit booms have not been accompanied by investment surges/booms, GDP growth may contract more when credit booms unwind.


2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Rossi

This paper studies the determinacy properties of monetary and fiscal policy rules in a small-scale New Keynesian model. We modify the standard model in two ways. First, we allow positive public debt in the steady state as in Leeper [Journal of Monetary Economics 27, 129–147 (1991)]. Second, we add rule-of-thumb consumers as in Bilbiie [Journal of Economic Theory 140, 162–196 (2008)]. Leeper studied a model in which Ricardian equivalence holds, and he showed that monetary and fiscal policy can be studied independently. In Bilbiie's analysis, rule-of-thumb consumers break the Ricardian equivalence and generate important consequences for the design of monetary policy. In his model, steady-state public debt was equal to zero. We study a model with both rule-of-thumb consumers and positive steady-state public debt. We find that the mix of fiscal and monetary policies that guarantees equilibrium determinacy is sensitive to the exact values of the parameters of the model.


2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 301
Author(s):  
Sri Adiningsih

This paper analyzes whether the expansionary fiscal policy funded by issuing debt instruments in financial markets will increase short-term interest rates. If  the expansionary fiscal policy increases interest rates, which decrease private spending especially investment, crowding out occurs. This is interesting because global economic crisis has encouraged many countries to run large budget deficits to stimulate the economy. Indonesia has also run budget deficit during this crisis and even in years before. The impact of such a policy can be significant because Indonesia’s debt market is still narrow and shallow. Therefore, its capability of absorbing the government debt instruments without influencing the private sector funding is limited. This study tests whether the crowding out occurs in Indonesia using a time series econometric model inspired by Cebula and Cuellar’s model. The Cointegration Regression and Error Correction Model (ECM) are used in this study. Monthly data from April 2000 to December 2008 are used for overnight real interbank call money interest rates, real net government bond issues in trading, real narrow money supply, real rate of one-month Certificate of Bank Indonesia, growth of Gross Domestic Product, and real net international capital flows. This empirical study shows that the crowding out problem occurred in Indonesia during the period. This indicates that financing budget deficit in Indonesia by issuing debt instruments in the financial markets has a negative impact on the private sector.


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