Impact of CO<sub>2</sub> and climate on Last Glacial Maximum vegetation – a factor separation
Abstract. Differences between glacial and pre-industrial potential vegetation patterns can conceptually be attributed to two factors: firstly to differences in the climate, caused by a strong increase in ice masses and the radiative effect of lower greenhouse gas concentrations, and secondly to differences in the ecophysiological effect of lower glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The synergy emerging from these effects when operating simultaneously can be interpreted as sensitivity of the effect of enhancing physiologically available CO2 on shifting vegetation to climate warming. Alternatively and equally valid, it can be viewed as sensitivity of climatically induced vegetation changes to differences in physiologically available CO2. A first complete factor separation based on simulations with the MPI Earth System Model indicates that the pure climate effect mainly leads to a contraction or a shift in vegetation patterns when comparing glacial with pre-industrial simulation vegetation patterns. Globally, a reduction in fractional coverage of most plant functional types is seen – except for raingreen shrubs which strongly benefit from the colder and drier climate. The ecophysiological effect of CO2 appears to be stronger than the pure climate contribution for many plant functional types – in line with previous simulations. The ecophysiological effect of lower CO2 mainly yields a reduction in fractional coverage, a thinning of vegetation and a strong reduction in net primary production. The synergy appears to be as strong as each of the pure contributions locally. For tropical evergreen trees, the synergy appears strong also on global average. Hence this modelling study suggests that for tropical forests, an increase in CO2 has, on average, a stronger ecophysiological effect in warmer climate than in glacial climate. Alternatively, areal differences in tropical forests induced by climate warming can, on average, be expected to be larger with increasing concentration of physiologically effective CO2.