Soil related developments of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 terrestrial ecosystem model by integrating crop model components

Terrestrial biogeochemical models are essential tools to quantify climate-carbon cycle feedback and plant-soil relations from local to global scale. In this study, theoretical basis is provided for the latest version of Biome-BGCMuSo biogeochemical model (version 6.2). Biome-BGCMuSo is a branch of the original Biome-BGC model with a large number of developments and structural changes. Earlier model versions performed poorly in terms of soil water content (SWC) dynamics in different environments. Moreover, lack of detailed nitrogen cycle representation was a major limitation of the model. Since problems associated with these internal drivers might influence the final results and parameter estimation, additional structural improvements were necessary. During the developments we took advantage of experiences from the crop modeller community where internal process representation has a long history. In this paper the improved soil hydrology and soil carbon/nitrogen cycle calculation methods are described in detail. Capabilities of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model are demonstrated via case studies focusing on soil hydrology and soil organic carbon content estimation. Soil hydrology related results are compared to observation data from an experimental lysimeter station. The results indicate improved performance for Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 compared to v4.0 (explained variance increased from 0.121 to 0.8 for SWC, and from 0.084 to 0.46 for soil evaporation; bias changed from −0.047 to 0.007 m3 m−3 for SWC, and from −0.68 mm day−1 to −0.2 mm day−1 for soil evaporation). Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the decomposition scheme is presented to support practical application of the model. The improved version of Biome-BGCMuSo has the ability to provide more realistic soil hydrology representation and nitrification/denitrification process estimation which represents a major milestone.

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes

Mosses are ubiquitous in northern terrestrial ecosystems, and play an important role in regional carbon, water and energy cycling. Current global land surface models that do not consider mosses may bias the quantification of regional carbon dynamics. Here we incorporate mosses as a new plant functional type into the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM 5.0), to develop a new model (TEM_Moss). The new model explicitly quantifies the interactions between vascular plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients. Compared to the estimates using TEM 5.0, the new model estimates that the regional terrestrial soils currently store 132.7 Pg more C and will store 157.5 and 179.1 Pg more C under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Ensemble regional simulations forced with different parameters for the 21st century with TEM_Moss predict that the region will accumulate 161.1±142.1 Pg C under the RCP2.6 scenario and 186.7±166.1 Pg C under the RCP8.5 scenario over the century. Our study highlights the necessity of coupling moss into Earth system models to adequately quantify terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

Evaluation of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model Biome-BGCMuSo for Modelling Soil Organic Carbon under Different Land Uses

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a mandatory pool in national inventory reports on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals to the UNFCCC. Hence, its accurate assessment is important. Modelling SOC changes for national GHG reports is encouraged, but the uncertainty related to this pool still presents a significant challenge; thus, verifying modelling results with field observations is essential. We used the process-based model Biome-BGCMuSo and assessed its suitability for use in Croatia’s GHG reporting. We modelled SOC stocks in the top 30 cm of the mineral soil layer (SOC30) for four different land-use (LU) categories (Deciduous/Coniferous Forest, Grassland and Annual Cropland) distributed in three biogeographical regions (Alpine, Continental and Mediterranean) and compared them with results of a national soil survey. A total of 573 plot level simulations were undertaken and results were evaluated at three stratification levels (LU, LU × biogeographical region, and plot). The model reproduced the overall country mean of SOC30 with no overall bias, and showed good performance at the LU level with no significant (p < 0.05) difference for all LUs except Deciduous Forest (11% overestimation). At finer stratifications, the model performance considerably worsened. Further model calibration, improvement and testing, as well as repeated soil survey are needed in order to assess the changes in SOC30 and to evaluate the potential of the Biome-BGCMuSo model for use in GHG reporting.

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year−1, was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year−1) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high-latitudes

In addition to woody and herbaceous plants, mosses are ubiquitous in northern terrestrial ecosystems, which play an important role in regional carbon, water and energy cycling. Current global land surface models without considering moss may bias the quantification of the regional carbon dynamics. Here we incorporate moss into a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM 5.0), as a new plant functional type to develop a new model (TEM_Moss). The new model explicitly quantifies the interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrient. Compared to the estimates using TEM 5.0, the new model estimates that the regional terrestrial soils store 132.7 Pg more C at present day, and will store 157.5 Pg and 179.1 Pg more C under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Ensemble regional simulations forced with different parameters for the 21st century with TEM_Moss predict that the region will accumulate 161.1 ± 142.1 Pg C under the RCP 2.6 scenario, and 186.7 ± 166.1 Pg C under the RCP 8.5 scenario over the century. Our study highlights the necessity of coupling moss into Earth System Models to adequately quantify terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

How does increasing CO2 influence the land-atmosphere exchange of carbon and water in response to soil and air dryness?

&lt;p&gt;Variability in the photosynthetic uptake of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; by plants due to climate variability plays an essential role in modulating the growth rate of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. In particular water stress induced by the compounding effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture anomalies has a large bearing on photosynthetic CO&lt;sub&gt;2 &lt;/sub&gt;uptake, especially in semi-arid areas. The ongoing rise in atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration can influence the water-use efficiency of plants, their carbon assimilation rate, and consequently the global cycles of carbon and water. &amp;#160;However, the extent to which physiological effects of increasing CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; influence the coupling of VPD, soil moisture, and land-atmosphere CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fluxes is currently poorly understood.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this study we use the terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system, Thum et al. 2019, GMD) to study CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-induced changes in the interaction of plant productivity and both soil moisture and VPD. With the sensitivity of stomatal conductance to atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentration implemented in the model, we investigate century-long simulations across different climate regimes and biomes. In semi-arid regions we find a positive relationship between anomalies of VPD and gross primary productivity (GPP) at both start and end of summer months, and a negative relationship in the dry period (usually from June to August in boreal summer). This suggests there is a transition in the limiting factor of GPP from energy (compound effect of temperature and radiation) to water and back in the course of one year. The negative correlation between VPD and GPP during the dry period weakens over time with rising CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, while a stronger positive correlation between soil moisture and GPP becomes apparent. After quantifying and understanding the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; effects in these model simulations, we apply our analysis framework to observational data from the FLUXNET site collection to analyze whether we can confirm the model-based findings despite shorter records.&lt;/p&gt;

North American Boreal Forests Are a Large Carbon Source Due to Wildfires From 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we use a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986-2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region is a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C yr-1, was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C yr-1) in the region. Our simulated during-fire emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increases, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the opposite trend was found under moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we use a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986-2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region is a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C yr-1, was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C yr-1) in the region. Our simulated during-fire emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increases, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. Burn severity regulates post-fire C dynamics. Low severity fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the opposite trend was found under moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.