Science goals and new mission concepts for future exploration of Titan’s atmosphere, geology and habitability: titan POlar scout/orbitEr and in situ lake lander and DrONe explorer (POSEIDON)

In response to ESA’s “Voyage 2050” announcement of opportunity, we propose an ambitious L-class mission to explore one of the most exciting bodies in the Solar System, Saturn’s largest moon Titan. Titan, a “world with two oceans”, is an organic-rich body with interior-surface-atmosphere interactions that are comparable in complexity to the Earth. Titan is also one of the few places in the Solar System with habitability potential. Titan’s remarkable nature was only partly revealed by the Cassini-Huygens mission and still holds mysteries requiring a complete exploration using a variety of vehicles and instruments. The proposed mission concept POSEIDON (Titan POlar Scout/orbitEr and In situ lake lander DrONe explorer) would perform joint orbital and in situ investigations of Titan. It is designed to build on and exceed the scope and scientific/technological accomplishments of Cassini-Huygens, exploring Titan in ways that were not previously possible, in particular through full close-up and in situ coverage over long periods of time. In the proposed mission architecture, POSEIDON consists of two major elements: a spacecraft with a large set of instruments that would orbit Titan, preferably in a low-eccentricity polar orbit, and a suite of in situ investigation components, i.e. a lake lander, a “heavy” drone (possibly amphibious) and/or a fleet of mini-drones, dedicated to the exploration of the polar regions. The ideal arrival time at Titan would be slightly before the next northern Spring equinox (2039), as equinoxes are the most active periods to monitor still largely unknown atmospheric and surface seasonal changes. The exploration of Titan’s northern latitudes with an orbiter and in situ element(s) would be highly complementary in terms of timing (with possible mission timing overlap), locations, and science goals with the upcoming NASA New Frontiers Dragonfly mission that will provide in situ exploration of Titan’s equatorial regions, in the mid-2030s.

Variability of southwest monsoon rainfall over West Bengal

Monthly and seasonal variations of southwest monsoon rainfall over the districts of Gangetic and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal are presented and their differences discussed. Latitudinal variations of monsoon rainfall are brought out. Decadal means of seasonal rainfall over plains are compared with those at higher elevations and northern latitudes. An attempt is made to study long term rainfall trends.

THE 500 HPA SUB-TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE DURING APRIL AND MAY 1988 AND THE WEATHER OVER INDIA

The sub-tropical ridge at 500 hPa in April has a considerable synoptic scale fluctuation. In April 1988, it showed a steady southward displacement to the equator. In May 1988, a fresh sub-tropical anticyclone formed in northern latitudes by the anticyclonic recut-mg of the dry northwesterlies of extra-tro-pical origin. By extending southward the northerlies ushered a dry spell extensively to the south of the sub-tropical ridge (STR). This was an event contrary to the normal northward progress of equatorial weather belt and the STR. Thus the mean April 500 hPa ridge does not provide a logical parameter for long range forecast-ing of the southwest (SW) monsoon rainfall over India.

Genomic Epidemiology of Salmonid Alphavirus in Norwegian Aquaculture Reveals Recent Subtype-2 Transmission Dynamics and Novel Subtype-3 Lineages

Viral disease poses a major barrier to sustainable aquaculture, with outbreaks causing large economic losses and growing concerns for fish welfare. Genomic epidemiology can support disease control by providing rapid inferences on viral evolution and disease transmission. In this study, genomic epidemiology was used to investigate salmonid alphavirus (SAV), the causative agent of pancreas disease (PD) in Atlantic salmon. Our aim was to reconstruct SAV subtype-2 (SAV2) diversity and transmission dynamics in recent Norwegian aquaculture, including the origin of SAV2 in regions where this subtype is not tolerated under current legislation. Using nanopore sequencing, we captured ~90% of the SAV2 genome for n = 68 field isolates from 10 aquaculture production regions sampled between 2018 and 2020. Using time-calibrated phylogenetics, we infer that, following its introduction to Norway around 2010, SAV2 split into two clades (SAV2a and 2b) around 2013. While co-present at the same sites near the boundary of Møre og Romsdal and Trøndelag, SAV2a and 2b were generally detected in non-overlapping locations at more Southern and Northern latitudes, respectively. We provide evidence for recent SAV2 transmission over large distances, revealing a strong connection between Møre og Romsdal and SAV2 detected in 2019/20 in Rogaland. We also demonstrate separate introductions of SAV2a and 2b outside the SAV2 zone in Sognefjorden (Vestland), connected to samples from Møre og Romsdal and Trøndelag, respectively, and a likely 100 km Northward transmission of SAV2b within Trøndelag. Finally, we recovered genomes of SAV2a and SAV3 co-infecting single fish in Rogaland, involving novel SAV3 lineages that diverged from previously characterized strains >25 years ago. Overall, this study demonstrates useful applications of genomic epidemiology for tracking viral disease spread in aquaculture.

Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes

The northern wetland methane emission estimates have large uncertainties. Inversion models are a qualified method to estimate the methane fluxes and emissions in northern latitudes but when atmospheric observations are sparse, the models are only as good as their a priori estimates. Thus, improving a priori estimates is a competent way to reduce uncertainties and enhance emission estimates in the sparsely sampled regions. Here, we use a novel way to integrate remote sensing soil freeze/thaw (F/T) status from SMOS satellite to better capture the seasonality of methane emissions in the northern high latitude. The SMOS F/T data provide daily information of soil freezing state in the northern latitudes, and in this study, the data is used to define the cold season in the high latitudes and, thus, improve our knowledge of the seasonal cycle of biospheric methane fluxes. The SMOS F/T data is implemented to LPX-Bern DYPTOP model estimates and the modified fluxes are used as a biospheric a priori in the inversion model CarbonTracker Europe-CH4. The implementation of the SMOS F/T soil state is shown to be beneficial in improving the inversion model’s cold season biospheric flux estimates. Our results show that cold season biospheric CH4 emissions in northern high latitudes are approximately 0.60 Tg lower than previously estimated, which corresponds to 17% reduction in the cold season biospheric emissions. This reduction is partly compensated by increased anthropogenic emissions in the same area (0.23 Tg), and the results also indicates that the anthropogenic emissions could have even larger contribution in cold season than estimated here.

Spatial variation of clouding / rainfall over southeast Indian peninsula and adjoining Bay of Bengal associated with active and dry spells of northeast monsoon as derived from INSAT OLR data

South Peninsular India (SPI) benefits largely from the rainfall (RF) realised during the North East Monsoon (NEM) season that prevails from October to December spilling over to January in some of the years. Salient aspects of clouding / RF over SPI associated with 13 NEM seasons from 2000-01 to 2012-13 have been analysed using estimates of Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) at 1° × 1° resolution derived from the radiance observations in the infra-red channel onboard the geostationary operational Indian satellite (INSAT) radiometers. OLR is considered as a proxy indicator for convective activity with the value of 230 Wm-2 as the threshold for RF occurrence. Year-to-year mean OLR patterns of the NEM season along with the latitudinal and longitudinal variabilities were analysed for dry, light and active phases of NEM. Based on rigorous analysis of INSAT OLR data for the above 13 years, it has been shown that during the active phase of NEM, Coastal Tamil Nadu (CTN) receives more RF while over BoB the RF is lower and decreases sharply over interior Tamil Nadu. This is a reiteration of a similar result from an earlier study based on 3 years (1996-98) OLR data from polar orbiting NOAA satellites. The spatial variation in OLR over the latitudes of 10.5, 12.5 and 14.5° N along the longitudes of 75.5-85.5° E has revealed the feature that north of 10.5° N, values of OLR are higher with decrease in RF from south to north. During dry phase of NEM in December and January, higher OLR is observed over northern latitudes of BoB than southern latitudes. It has been comprehended that in the southern latitudes of BoB, where higher sea surface temperatures (SST) are prevalent, more moisture is generated and pumped in to upper levels of the atmosphere leading to lower values of OLR compared to northern latitudes.

Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2

We present a transient simulation of global vegetation and climate patterns of the mid- and late Holocene using the MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model) at T63 resolution. The simulated vegetation trend is discussed in the context of the simulated Holocene climate change. Our model captures the main trends found in reconstructions. Most prominent are the southward retreat of the northern treeline that is combined with the strong decrease of forest in the high northern latitudes during the Holocene and the vast increase of the Saharan desert, embedded in a general decrease in precipitation and vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon margin regions. The Southern Hemisphere experiences weaker changes in total vegetation cover during the last 8000 years. However, the monsoon-related increase in precipitation and the insolation-induced cooling of the winter climate lead to shifts in the vegetation composition, mainly between the woody plant functional types (PFTs). The large-scale global patterns of vegetation almost linearly follow the subtle, approximately linear, orbital forcing. In some regions, however, non-linear, more rapid changes in vegetation are found in the simulation. The most striking region is the Sahel–Sahara domain with rapid vegetation transitions to a rather desertic state, despite a gradual insolation forcing. Rapid shifts in the simulated vegetation also occur in the high northern latitudes, in South Asia and in the monsoon margins of the Southern Hemisphere. These rapid changes are mainly triggered by changes in the winter temperatures, which go into, or move out of, the bioclimatic tolerance range of individual PFTs. The dynamics of the transitions are determined by dynamics of the net primary production (NPP) and the competition between PFTs. These changes mainly occur on timescales of centuries. More rapid changes in PFTs that occur within a few decades are mainly associated with the timescales of mortality and the bioclimatic thresholds implicit in the dynamic vegetation model, which have to be interpreted with caution. Most of the simulated Holocene vegetation changes outside the high northern latitudes are associated with modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoon dynamics that also affect the circulation in the extra tropics via teleconnections. Based on our simulations, we thus identify the global monsoons as the key player in Holocene climate and vegetation change.

QBO and QTO of atmospheric trace elements nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons: An update

An analysis of N2O (nitrous oxide) and CFC (chlorofluorocarbon) concentrations (monthly values) at various locations during 1978-2001 indicated seasonal variations. When these were minimized by calculating 12-month running means (12m) and 3-year running means (37m) were subtracted from 12m, the residues (12m-37m) showed oscillations with peak spacings in the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation, 2-3 year) and in the QTO (quasi-triennial oscillation, 3-4 year) regions. The QBO at high northern latitudes roughly resembled the QBO of stratospheric low latitude winds and the QTO at low latitudes resembled the QTO of ENSO (El Niño/Southern oscillation).Key words – QBO, QTO, ENSO, Chlorofluorocarbon.

6. Arctic governance

‘Arctic governance’ discusses how the Arctic, unlike many other parts of the world, has been spared military conflict, civil wars, and terrorism. Arctic governance involves an array of actors, legal regimes, institutional and social contexts, and strategic aspirations. In 1989, Finland approached the other seven Arctic states with a proposal for the Rovaniemi Meeting, which discusses the protection of the Arctic environment. This provided the foundation for the intergovernmental forum the Arctic Council (1996). The eight Arctic states will remain significant players in the future governance of the northern latitudes alongside indigenous peoples/permanent participants. There will always be powerful drivers that ensure that the 'global Arctic' will be prominent in multiple ways, including the role that China, the European Union, and other external states will play in shaping its future.