Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change in the Management of a Transboundary Basin- Case Study of Mono River catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rholan Houngue ◽  
Mariele Evers ◽  
Adrian Almoradie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Catchment Management ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The World ◽  
Transboundary Management

<p>There are evidences that climate change as a result of both natural and anthropogenic processes has exacerbated the frequency and the severity of flood hazards over past decades across the world. Moreover, changes in the pattern of precipitation and temperature during the 21<sup>st</sup> century are expected to induce region-specific impacts on floods, especially increase in local floods in some catchments. However, the future is hard to predict as there are strong discrepancies in how climate change is expected to affect runoff and river discharge at different places. Many studies have proven that not only climate, socio-economic and physical factors such as elevation and soil type are determinant for flood risk characterisation. Anthropogenic activities and impacts through land use and land cover degradation have substantial implication for hydrological processes. Moreover, catchment management play an important role in sustainable flood management which is generally based on technical knowledge. But it must also be socially and politically meaningful. This is especially relevant for transboundary catchments where riparian countries might offer different economic, social and political environment, and hence have distinct approaches of flood risk reduction and management. An effective cooperation between states sharing transboundary water resources must include a continuum comprised of data exchange, information sharing, collaboration and joint action. It is a search for cooperative management while respecting the sovereignty of each state. There is a variety of methods used for assessing transboundary management and identifying cooperative strategies. Among others, the following ones can be mentioned: the Water Cooperation Quotient, the multiobjective analysis, hydropolicy simulation models, the Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) and a combination of the two later. Hence this study aims at exploring various approaches of transboundary management and analyses experienced over the world. Lessons will afterward be drawn in the context of climate and land use change in the transboundary Mono River catchment shared by the Republics of Benin and Togo.</p>

scholarly journals River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yus Budiyono ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
Daniel Tollenaar ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
River Flood ◽  
Increase In Risk

Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM–RCP–sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

scholarly journals FLOOD RISK, TYPOLOGY, SEVERITY AND MANAGEMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-181
Author(s):  
Guellouh SAMI ◽  
◽  
Filali ABDELWAHHAB ◽  
Habibi YAHYAOUI ◽  
Kalla MOUHAMED ISSAM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
Reality Construction ◽  
The World

Flooding has now become a major and critical concern in most parts of the world. It is defined as frequent natural phenomena that cause significant and often irreversible human and material damages. The increase in the number of catastrophic floods is first and foremost the consequence of climate change as well as land use that is not in line with environmental reality (construction on floodplain areas, inconsistent development of river beds. This paper represents generalities and definitions which allow an explanation of some fundamental concepts related to flood risk and its management.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment due to cyclone-induced dike breaching in coastal areas of Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Feroz Islam ◽  
Biswa Bhattacharya ◽  
Ioana Popescu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The World ◽  
Critical Location ◽  
Critical Locations

Abstract. Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders protected by earthen dikes. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders by overtopping and breaching the dikes. A total of 19 major tropical storms have hit the coast in the last 50 years, and the storm frequency is likely to increase due to climate change. The present paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a protected area behind dikes due to floods caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Polder 48 in the coastal region, also known as Kuakata, was selected as the study area. A HEC-RAS 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate inundation of the polder under different scenarios. Scenarios were developed by considering tidal variations, the angle of the cyclone at landfall, possible dike breach locations and sea level rise due to climate change according to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A storm surge for a cyclone event with a 1-in-25-year return period was considered for all the scenarios. The primary objective of this research was to present a methodology for identifying the critical location of dike breaching, generating a flood risk map (FRM) and a probabilistic flood map (PFM) for the breaching of dikes during a cyclone. The critical location of the dike breach among the chosen possible locations was identified by comparing the inundation extent and damage due to flooding corresponding to the developed scenarios. A FRM corresponding to the breaching in the critical location was developed, which indicated that settlements adjacent to the canals in the polders were exposed to higher risk. A PFM was developed using the simulation results corresponding to the developed scenarios, which was used to recommend the need of appropriate land use zoning to minimize the vulnerability to flooding. The developed hydrodynamic model can be used to forecast inundation, to identify critical locations of the dike requiring maintenance and to study the effect of climate change on flood inundation in the study area. The frequency and intensity of the cyclones around the world are likely to increase due to climate change, which will require resource-intensive improvement of existing or new protection structures for the deltas. The identification and prioritization of the maintenance of critical locations of dike breaching can potentially prevent a disaster. The use of non-structural tools such as land use zoning with the help of flood risk maps and probabilistic flood maps has the potential to reduce risk and damage. The method presented in this research can potentially be utilized for deltas around the world to reduce vulnerability and flood risk due to dike breaching caused by cyclone-induced storm surge.

Simulating erosion hazard maps under climate change and land use change for the early twenty-first century in northern Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloofar Rasoolzadeh-Darzi ◽  
Hassan Ahmad ◽  
Abolfazl Moeini ◽  
Baharak Motamedvaziri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
First Century ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Northern Iran ◽  
Erosion Hazard ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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