scholarly journals Flood risk assessment due to cyclone-induced dike breaching in coastal areas of Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Feroz Islam ◽  
Biswa Bhattacharya ◽  
Ioana Popescu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The World ◽  
Critical Location ◽  
Critical Locations

Abstract. Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders protected by earthen dikes. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders by overtopping and breaching the dikes. A total of 19 major tropical storms have hit the coast in the last 50 years, and the storm frequency is likely to increase due to climate change. The present paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a protected area behind dikes due to floods caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Polder 48 in the coastal region, also known as Kuakata, was selected as the study area. A HEC-RAS 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate inundation of the polder under different scenarios. Scenarios were developed by considering tidal variations, the angle of the cyclone at landfall, possible dike breach locations and sea level rise due to climate change according to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A storm surge for a cyclone event with a 1-in-25-year return period was considered for all the scenarios. The primary objective of this research was to present a methodology for identifying the critical location of dike breaching, generating a flood risk map (FRM) and a probabilistic flood map (PFM) for the breaching of dikes during a cyclone. The critical location of the dike breach among the chosen possible locations was identified by comparing the inundation extent and damage due to flooding corresponding to the developed scenarios. A FRM corresponding to the breaching in the critical location was developed, which indicated that settlements adjacent to the canals in the polders were exposed to higher risk. A PFM was developed using the simulation results corresponding to the developed scenarios, which was used to recommend the need of appropriate land use zoning to minimize the vulnerability to flooding. The developed hydrodynamic model can be used to forecast inundation, to identify critical locations of the dike requiring maintenance and to study the effect of climate change on flood inundation in the study area. The frequency and intensity of the cyclones around the world are likely to increase due to climate change, which will require resource-intensive improvement of existing or new protection structures for the deltas. The identification and prioritization of the maintenance of critical locations of dike breaching can potentially prevent a disaster. The use of non-structural tools such as land use zoning with the help of flood risk maps and probabilistic flood maps has the potential to reduce risk and damage. The method presented in this research can potentially be utilized for deltas around the world to reduce vulnerability and flood risk due to dike breaching caused by cyclone-induced storm surge.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment due to cyclone induced dike breaching on coastal areas of Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Feroz Islam ◽  
Biswa Bhattacharya ◽  
Ioana Popescu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Geometrical Properties ◽  
Critical Location ◽  
Tidal Variations ◽  
Critical Locations

Abstract. Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders protected by earthen dikes. Cyclone induced storm surges cause severe damages to these polders by overtopping and breaching the dikes. Nineteen major tropical storms hit the coast in last 50 years and storm intensity is predicted to increase due to climate change. The present paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a protected area behind dikes due to floods caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Polder 48 in the coastal region, also known as Kuakata, was selected as the study area. A HEC-RAS 1D–2D inundation model was developed to simulate inundation under different scenarios. Tidal variations, angle of the cyclone at landfall, different dike breach locations, geometrical properties of the breach, breach propagation time and the sea level rise due to climate change according to the fifth assessment report (AR5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were combined to develop the scenarios. The critical location of the dike breach was identified by comparing the three worst cases of the developed scenarios. Generated flood risk maps corresponding to the breaching at the critical location indicated that settlements adjacent to the canals face higher risk. The probabilistic flood map (PFM) calculated from the results of all the developed scenarios indicated the need of appropriate land use zoning to minimize the vulnerability to flooding. The developed model can be applied to generate location based flood forecasting, identify critical locations of the dike to reduce the risk from flooding and to study the effect of climate change.

Windstorm and storm surges in Europe: loss trends and possible counter-actions from the viewpoint of an international reinsurer

2005 ◽  
Vol 363 (1831) ◽  
pp. 1431-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Berz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Design Code ◽  
The World

Windstorm disasters (including storm surges) account for about one-third of all natural disasters throughout the world (by number, fatalities and economic losses), but for more than two-thirds of the corresponding insured losses. Trend analyses reveal that major windstorm disasters and the losses generated by them have increased drastically in recent decades. Risk partnership between the state, the affected population and the insurance industry assumes a key role with regard to the windstorm hazard. Scientists, engineers and insurers must work together in formulating their requirements and shaping them in such a way that politicians can derive clearly recognizable policy options (e.g. land-use, restrictions, design-code adjustments) from them. Another important aspect is stepping up the efforts being made towards curbing climate change, which will, otherwise, exacerbate the risk in the future.

scholarly journals FLOOD RISK, TYPOLOGY, SEVERITY AND MANAGEMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-181
Author(s):  
Guellouh SAMI ◽  
◽  
Filali ABDELWAHHAB ◽  
Habibi YAHYAOUI ◽  
Kalla MOUHAMED ISSAM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
Reality Construction ◽  
The World

Flooding has now become a major and critical concern in most parts of the world. It is defined as frequent natural phenomena that cause significant and often irreversible human and material damages. The increase in the number of catastrophic floods is first and foremost the consequence of climate change as well as land use that is not in line with environmental reality (construction on floodplain areas, inconsistent development of river beds. This paper represents generalities and definitions which allow an explanation of some fundamental concepts related to flood risk and its management.

Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change in the Management of a Transboundary Basin- Case Study of Mono River catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rholan Houngue ◽  
Mariele Evers ◽  
Adrian Almoradie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Catchment Management ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The World ◽  
Transboundary Management

<p>There are evidences that climate change as a result of both natural and anthropogenic processes has exacerbated the frequency and the severity of flood hazards over past decades across the world. Moreover, changes in the pattern of precipitation and temperature during the 21<sup>st</sup> century are expected to induce region-specific impacts on floods, especially increase in local floods in some catchments. However, the future is hard to predict as there are strong discrepancies in how climate change is expected to affect runoff and river discharge at different places. Many studies have proven that not only climate, socio-economic and physical factors such as elevation and soil type are determinant for flood risk characterisation. Anthropogenic activities and impacts through land use and land cover degradation have substantial implication for hydrological processes. Moreover, catchment management play an important role in sustainable flood management which is generally based on technical knowledge. But it must also be socially and politically meaningful. This is especially relevant for transboundary catchments where riparian countries might offer different economic, social and political environment, and hence have distinct approaches of flood risk reduction and management. An effective cooperation between states sharing transboundary water resources must include a continuum comprised of data exchange, information sharing, collaboration and joint action. It is a search for cooperative management while respecting the sovereignty of each state. There is a variety of methods used for assessing transboundary management and identifying cooperative strategies. Among others, the following ones can be mentioned: the Water Cooperation Quotient, the multiobjective analysis, hydropolicy simulation models, the Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) and a combination of the two later. Hence this study aims at exploring various approaches of transboundary management and analyses experienced over the world. Lessons will afterward be drawn in the context of climate and land use change in the transboundary Mono River catchment shared by the Republics of Benin and Togo.</p>

Integrated extreme sea level events in the Mediterranean coast of Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Lira Loarca ◽  
Manuel Cobos ◽  
Agustín Millares ◽  
Giovanni Besio ◽  
Asunción Baquerizo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The World

<p>Coastal areas are one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change given their high exposure to the increasingly frequent extreme sea level (ESL) events and the high population density with around 680 million people (approximately 10% of the world’s population) residing at less than 10 m above sea level and projected to reach more than one billion by 2050 (IPCC, 2019).</p><p>Extreme sea level events include the combination of mean sea level, tides, surges and waves set-up. These events that historically occurred once per century are projected to become at least an annual occurrence at most parts of the world during the 21st century. Therefore, a crucial step towards coastal planning and adaption is the understanding of the drivers and impacts of ESL events (Hinkel et al., 2019).</p><p>Flooding and extreme events in river mouths and their adjacent coastline have a complex nature with oceanic and fluvial processes taking place. Their analysis requires, therefore, the consideration of several physical variables that play a role in water levels such as precipitation, waves, storm surge, and tides. In a climate change scenario, the effects of sea level rise and storminess changes must also be accounted for. The contribution of different processes to ESL events has often been analyzed independently given the difficulty to predict their combined effects.</p><p>This work focuses on the analysis of ESL events due to the combination of sea level rise, extreme waves, storm surges, tides and river flows in a climate change scenario, following:</p><ol><li>Projections of wave variables for an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs under RCP8.5 using WavewatchIII v5.16 (Besio et al., 2019). Wave propagation of local hydrodynamic processes and storm surge with Delft3D.</li> <li>Projections of river flow using a physical-based and distributed hydrological model under the same runs as the wave climate.</li> <li>Joint statistical characterization of local waves and river flows and long-term temporal variability based on the methodology of Lira-Loarca et al. (2020).</li> <li>Analysis of compound extreme sea level and flooding events.</li> </ol><p>The methodology is applied to a case study in the coast of Granada (Spain) where severe flood events have occurred in recent years. The results highlight the need for an integrated approach encompassing the relevant components of water levels, and specifically sea level rise and waves and the differences in the temporal variability of the significant wave height in a climate change scenario.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><ul><li>Besio et al., 2019. Trends and variability of waves under scenario RCP8.5 in the Mediterranean Sea. 2<sup>nd</sup>International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges, and Coastal Hazards, Melbourne, Australia</li> <li>Hinkel et al., 2019. Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and communities. IPCC SROCC.</li> <li>IPCC, 2019. SPM Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.</li> <li>Lira-Loarca et al., 2020. Storm characterization and simulation for damage evolution models of maritime structures. Coastal Engineering, 156, 103620.</li> </ul>

Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 764 ◽  
pp. 144439
Author(s):  
Shih-Chun Hsiao ◽  
Wen-Son Chiang ◽  
Jiun-Huei Jang ◽  
Han-Lun Wu ◽  
Wei-Shiun Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Compound Effect

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4537-4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Storm Surge by Forward Speed of Typhoon in the South Coast of Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 187-194
Author(s):  
Young Hyun Park ◽  
Woo-Sun Park
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Forward Speed ◽  
The South ◽  
Slow Speed ◽  
Fast Speed ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Sea Area

The damage caused by typhoons is gradually increasing due to the climate change recently. Hence, many studies have been conducted over a long period of time on various factors that determine the characteristics of storm surge, and most of relationships have been discovered. Because storm surge is complexly determined by various factors, it often show different results and draw different conclusions. For this reason, this study was conducted to understand the various characteristics of storm surge caused by changes in the forward speed of typhoons. This study was carried out with a numerical model, and the effect of forward speed could be analyzed by simplifying other factors as much as possible. When forward speed is increased, storm surges caused by typhoons tended to increase gradually. The storm surge showed a wide and gentle increase at a slow speed, but a narrow and steep one at a fast speed. In the case of the same forward speed, it was found that the storm surge was significantly influenced by the water depth of actual sea area. It was confirmed that the change in forward speed after passing Jeju Island did not significant affect on the storm surge in the south coast of Korea.

scholarly journals APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

2020 ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Yako Harada ◽  
Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽  
Kazuho Morishita ◽  
Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽  
Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Numerical Calculations ◽  
Numerical Analyses ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

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