Coupled tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting system over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in NMEFC

<p>Tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variations. Accurate prediction of TC seasonal activities before the onset of the coming TC season (June-November) can provide sufficient time for the government and the public to prepare for tropical cyclone disasters and minimize risks and life losses.<br>Based on COAWST model, we developed a new regional coupled seasonal forecasting system for the Northwest Pacific Ocean including a series of technology improvements. The results of multi-year hindcast experiments show that the coupled seasonal forecasting system can effectively improve the tropical cyclone frequency and intensity forecast compared to the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecast, especially the tropical cyclone frequency forecast of the TC exceeding the typhoon level, but there is still a certain gap between the results in the forecasting system and the observed TC frequency and intensity, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the forecasting season has a higher frequency of TCs and the peak of strong TCs is relatively weaker. This gap may be caused by the forecasting bias of the sea surface temperature.</p>