Estimation of Forest Fire Risk by Using Fire Weather Index in the MENA Region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burcu Calda ◽  
Kamil Collu ◽  
Aytac Pacal ◽  
Mehmet Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Forest Fire Risk

<p>Forest fires are naturals in the Mediterranean ecosystems. However, in the last decade, the number of wildfires has significantly increased in the Mediterranean basin along with climate change. Therefore, forecasts of this region by using fire indices are crucial to take necessary precautions. In the present study, the projected changes for the period 2070 - 2099 concerning the control period 1971 - 2000 were used to estimate forest fire risk by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (IPCC) outputs of MPI-ESM-MR and HadGEM2-ES dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain with the use of the RegCM4 were utilized. ERA-Interim observational data from ECMWF covering the period 1980-2012 were also used to test the performances of models. The output of MPI-ESM-MR gave more similar fire risk prediction with the reforecast of observational data (ERA-Interim). Thus, the MPI-ESM-MR model could be more suitable to estimate fire risk by FWI. According to future projection, forest fire risk will significantly increase throughout the region for the last 30 years of this century.</p>

scholarly journals Development of a national index for the purpose of forest fire risk assessments on the example of southern Serbia

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6 Part A) ◽  
pp. 3307-3316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatjana Ratknic ◽  
Mihailo Ratknic ◽  
Nikola Rakonjac ◽  
Ivana Zivanovic ◽  
Zoran Poduska
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Moderate Correlation ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
Future Concepts

The paper presents the results on the study of the possible application of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Modified Angstrom Index in forest fire risk assessments. The daily values of these indices for the period 2005-2015 were related to the forest fire database. It was found that there is a relatively weak to moderate correlation between forest fires and the values of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. In order to improve the wildfire risk assessments (including forest fires), the index was modified. The modified index has a significantly greater correlation with the actual events of forest fires and consequently a much wider application in southern Serbia. The modified index can be of great importance in the future concepts of forest fire risk management.

scholarly journals Proposal of an Iot Solution to Fire Risk Assessment Problem

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bernardo ◽  
Pedro Silva ◽  
Paulo Fazendeiro
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Keywords Internet ◽  
The Common ◽  
Civic Awareness ◽  
Municipal Level

Several of the fighting weaknesses evidenced by the forest fires tragedies of the last years are rooted in the disconnection between the current technical/scientific resources and the availability of the resulting information to operational agents on the ground. In order to be effective, a pre-emptive response to similar disasters must include the articulation between local authorities at municipal level - in prevention, preparedness and initial response - and the common citizen who is on the field, resides there, and has a deeper knowledge about the field of operation. This work intends to take a first step in the development of a tool that can serve to improve the civic awareness of all and to support the decision-making of the competent authorities. Keywords: Internet of things, Citizen science, Fire weather index

Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Douglas J. McRae ◽  
Jizhong Jin ◽  
Lifu Shu ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

scholarly journals Forest Fire Prediction in Northern Sumatera using Support Vector Machine Based on the Fire Weather Index

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darwis Robinson Manalu ◽  
Muhammad Zarlis ◽  
Herman Mawengkang ◽  
Opim Salim Sitompul
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Data Mining Approach ◽  
Prevention Activity

Forest fires are a major environmental issue, creating economical and ecological damage while dangering human lives. The investigation and survey for forest fire had been done in Aek Godang, Northern Sumatera, Indonesia. There is 26 hotspot in 2017 close to Aek Godang, North Sumatera, Indonesia. In this study, we use a data mining approach to train and test the data of forest fire and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from meteorological data. The aim of this study to predict the burned area and identify the forest fire in Aek Godang areas, North Sumatera. The result of this study indicated that Fire fighting and prevention activity may be one reason for the observed lack of correlation. The fact that this dataset exists indicates that there is already some effort going into fire prevention.

Environmental determinants of lightning- v. human-induced forest fire ignitions differ in a temperate mountain region of Switzerland

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Reineking ◽  
Patrick Weibel ◽  
Marco Conedera ◽  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Fire Ignitions

Understanding the environmental and human determinants of forest fire ignitions is crucial for landscape management. In this study, we consider lightning- and human-induced fires separately and evaluate the relative importance of weather, forest composition and human activities on the occurrence of forest fire ignitions in the most fire-prone region of Switzerland, the Canton Ticino. Independent variables included 14 drought and fire weather indices, forest composition and human influences. Logistic regression models were used to relate these independent variables to records of forest fires over a 37-year period (1969–2005). We found large differences in the importance of environmental and human controls on forest fire ignitions between lightning- and human-induced events: lightning-induced fires occurred in a small range of weather conditions well captured by the Duff Moisture Code from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and the LandClim Drought Index, and with negligible influence of distance to human infrastructure, whereas human-induced fires occurred in a wider range of weather conditions well captured by the Angstroem and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index, mainly in deciduous forests, and strongly depending on proximity to human infrastructure. We conclude that the suitability of fire indices can vary dramatically between ignition sources, suggesting that some of these indices are useful within certain regions and fire types only. The ignition source is an important factor that needs to be taken into account by fire managers and when developing models of forest fire occurrence.

scholarly journals Forest fire risk analysis via integration of GIS, RS and AHP: The Case of Çanakkale, Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 2127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cengiz Akbulak ◽  
Hasan Tatlı ◽  
Gurcu Aygün ◽  
Bülent Sağlam
Keyword(s):  
Human Factors ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Western Anatolia ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Forest Fire Risk

Forest fire is one of the high-risk natural disasters in the north-western Anatolia section of Turkey. This paper suggests a new approach based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the development of forest fire-risk model. The proposed approach includes human factors as well as environmental factors. In this context, the 12 variables defined under anthropogenic and physical factors in the proposed model are the slope, elevation, aspect, vegetation type, crown closure, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance to road, settlement, and agricultural areas, population density, previous fires, and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). For each variable, a layer was created in the GIS database environment. GIS-layers were classified, considering the risk of potentially generating forest-fire of the relevant variables. In addition, to generate risk maps, the weights used in these GIS-layers were obtained by applying the AHP technique. One of the major results of the study shows that the rates of “extreme”, “very high”, “high”, and “moderate” risk areas are 3.87%, 63.46%, 32.13% and 0.53%, respectively. Another important result is that there are not observed the so called “no risk" and "low risk" classes in the region. The results let us to make a conclusion that the natural and human factors having significant contributions the region to be fire-prone. Yet, these results also indicate that rather than emphasizing forest-fire preparedness and mitigation, policy-makers manage forest-fires through reactive, crisis-oriented approaches. In contrast to crisis-based management plans, this study suggests that risk-based preventive plans should be developed and implemented.

scholarly journals Forest fire hazard assessment by clustering and using neural networks under unstability and uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-69
Author(s):  
Tatiana Sergeevna Stankevich
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Minimum Distance ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
Natural And Anthropogenic Factors

The paper focuses on the data on forest fires and identification of key natural and anthropogenic factors that are crucial for forest management, especially, for developing and implementing the fire safety measures. In recent decades, there have been observed the increased environmental, social and economic losses from the forest fires on a global scale, which has required stepped-up fire-fighting surveillance, especially in the preventive forest fire risk assessment. In all the variety of modern approaches aimed at assessing the fire hazards to the forests and taking into account the effecting environmental factors, most of them are based on simplified calculations and do not take into account different factors, mainly anthropological ones. The purpose of the study is to assess the forest fire risk depending on the environmental factors by using cluster analysis in conditions of instability and uncertainty. It could help applying the integrated approach to forest fire risk assessing in order to take into account both natural and anthropogenic factors in difficult conditions. To assess the forest fire risk, there were used the data obtained by MODIS spectroradiometer from January 1, 2014 to November 24, 2019: latitude; longitude; acquisition time and date. The following parameters were used as additional: Fire Weather Index; minimum distance to an inhabited locality; minimum distance to the road (highway or railway); minimum distance to the water area; holiday / day off; potential value. According to the results of the spatial distribution of forest fires and taking into account the data on the environmental factors there have been formed three clusters; there has been revealed a key relationship between the probability of a forest fire and proximity to the inhabited locality. There has been submitted the index of forest fire risk assessment (the Fire Weather and Human Index (FWHI)) based on the natural and anthropogenic impacts. Identification of social and biophysical aspects of the community exposure to fires and the adaptation of the existing fire prevention strategy will improve the forest fire safety system.

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