The Role of El Nino Variability and Peatland in Burnt Area and Emitted Carbon in Forest Fire Modeling

This study was conducted to model fire occurrence within El Nino variability and peatland distribution. These climate and geographical factors have a significant impact on forest fires in tropical areas such as Indonesia. The re-analysis dataset from ECMWF was observed with respect to climate characteristics in Indonesian El Nino events. The INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) was utilized to simulate fires over Borneo Island due to its capability to simulate large-scale fires with simplified parameters. There were some adjustments in this INFERNO model, especially for peat fire as peatland has a significant impact on fires. The first was the contribution of climate to the peat fire which is represented by long-term precipitation. The second was the combustion completeness of peat fire occurrence that is mainly affected by human-induced peat drainage. The result of the model shows that El Nino variability mainly affected peat fires but was unable to well simulate the above-ground fire. It increased the burnt area during strong El Nino but overestimated the fires during low/no El Nino season due to lack of peat fire ignition in the calculation. Moreover, as the model did not provide peat drainage simulation, it underestimated the carbon emission. This model has shown promising results by addressing key features in limited input data, but improving some simulations is necessary for regulating weak/no El Nino conditions and carbon combustion of peat fire.

Utilization of Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Imagery for Improving Burnt Area Mapping Accuracy

Wildfires pose a direct threat when occurring close to populated areas. Additionally, their significant carbon and climate feedbacks represent an indirect threat on a global, long-term scale. Monitoring and analyzing wildfires is therefore a crucial task to increase the understanding of interconnections between fire and ecosystems, in order to improve wildfire management activities. This study investigates the suitability of 232 different red/near-infrared band combinations based on hyperspectral imagery of the DESIS sensor with regard to burnt area detection accuracy. It is shown that the selection of wavelengths greatly influences the detection quality, and that especially the utilization of lower near-infrared wavelengths increases the yielded accuracy. For burnt area analysis based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the optimal wavelength range has been found to be 660–670 nm and 810–835 nm for the red band and near-infrared band, respectively.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ЕСТЕСТВЕННОГО ЛЕСОВОЗОБНОВЛЕНИЯ ГАРИ УРАЙСКОГО ЛЕСНИЧЕСТВА ХМАО

Приведены данные исследований естественного лесовозобновления гари в условиях Западно-Сибирского среднетаежного равнинного лесного района таежной лесорастительной зоны (на примере Урайского лесничества, расположенного в юго-западной части Ханты-Мансийского автоном- ного округа – Югры на территории кондинского административного района). Оценка лесовозобновле- ния проведена по методу учетных лент, заложенных на расстоянии 50 и 100 м от стены леса. Данные исследований показали непрерывность лесовосстановительного процесса на гари. Отмечается наличие всходов, самосева и подроста высотных категорий «мелкий», «средний» и «крупный». лесовозобновле- ние гари происходит двумя древесными породами – сосной и березой. По существующим нормативам возобновление сосны оценивается как хорошее. По количеству всходов и подроста преобладает сосна. При удалении от стены леса на 100 м происходит уменьшение количества всходов и подроста всех кате- горий крупности в 2–3 раза в сравнении с аналогичными показателями на расстоянии 50 м от стены леса независимо от вида древесной породы. Во всех высотных категориях отмечается преобладание жизне- способного подроста сосны – до 90–100 %, что является основным показателем успешности лесовос- становления исследуемой гари на данном этапе развития. береза в большинстве случаев представлена сомнительными по жизнеспособности экземплярами. В качестве лесохозяйственных мероприятий мож- но предложить проведение мониторинга за состоянием подроста и уходные мероприятия за подростом. The results of features formations of post-fire pine undergrowth on burnt area of the middle taiga zone of Western Siberia (for example, Uraisk forestry department) in location of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area. Undergrowth was studied on tapes laid out parallel to the forest edges at a distance of 50 and 100. According to studies it is observed of reafforestation continuity of burned areas. The presence of sprouting and undergrowth of the high- elevation categories «small», «medium» and «large» is noted. The burned areas reforestation with two tree species – pine and birch proceed. According to current specification, the pine natural regeneration is assessed as «normal». The amount of pine undergrowth is greater than the amount of birch undergrowth. To be at 100 m from forest edges the number of seedlings and undergrowth decreases by 2–3 times in comparison with the same indicators at 50 m from the forest edges. There is a predominance of vital pine undergrowth – up to 90–100 %. This is evidence of the successful reforestation of burned areas at this stage of development.

Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective

Recent extreme wildfire seasons in several regions have been associated with exceptionally hot, dry conditions, made more probable by climate change. Much research has focused on extreme fire weather and its drivers, but natural wildfire regimes – and their interactions with human activities – are far from being comprehensively understood. There is a lack of clarity about the ‘causes’ of wildfire, and about how ecosystems could be managed for the co-existence of wildfire and people. We present evidence supporting an ecosystem-centred framework for improved understanding and modelling of wildfire. Wildfire has a long geological history and is a pervasive natural process in contemporary plant communities. In some biomes, wildfire would be more frequent without human settlement; in others they would be unchanged or less frequent. A world without fire would have greater forest cover, especially in present-day savannas. Many species would be missing, because fire regimes have co-evolved with plant traits that resist, adapt to or promote wildfire. Certain plant traits are favoured by different fire frequencies, and may be missing in ecosystems that are normally fire-free. For example, post-fire resprouting is more common among woody plants in high-frequency fire regimes than where fire is infrequent. The impact of habitat fragmentation on wildfire crucially depends on whether the ecosystem is fire-adapted. In normally fire-free ecosystems, fragmentation facilitates wildfire starts and is detrimental to biodiversity. In fire-adapted ecosystems, fragmentation inhibits fires from spreading and fire suppression is detrimental to biodiversity. This interpretation explains observed, counterintuitive patterns of spatial correlation between wildfire and potential ignition sources. Lightning correlates positively with burnt area only in open ecosystems with frequent fire. Human population correlates positively with burnt area only in densely forested regions. Models for vegetation-fire interactions must be informed by insights from fire ecology to make credible future projections in a changing climate.

Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burnt area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there is currently 133 000 km2 at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km2 at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.

Distribution of carbon stocks in drainage areas on peatlands of Sungai Tohor Village, Meranti Islands District, Indonesia

Silviana SH, Saharjo BH, Sutikno S. 2021. Distribution of carbon stocks in drainage areas on peatlands of Sungai Tohor Village, Meranti Islands District, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 22: 5106-5114. Peatland ecosystems provide a variety of environmental services and biodiversity with their ability to store and absorb carbon. The increase of land clearing followed by the construction of drainage or canal has resulted in the degradation of peatlands and is prone to fire incidences. Canal construction, whether we realize it or not, has a negative ecological impact on the in situ (local) environment, namely land degradation and subsidence, as well as a wider (global) impact in the form of loss of carbon stocks, increased GHG emissions that can trigger global warming. This study aims to identify the distribution of carbon in the area where drainage is made where the distribution of carbon stock in starting at a distance of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, 250 m, and 350 m from the canal. The study was conducted on the community plantations including unburned areas (rubber plantations and secondary forests) and burned areas. The influence of land use and drainage development on carbon stock distribution is rarely known. The results showed a decrease in C-Stock with a decrease in drainage distance. The quantity of carbon stock in secondary forests ranged from 13.275 ton ha-1 - 24.839 ton ha-1, Burnt Area-1 ranged from 6.995 ton ha-1 - 11.59 ton ha-1, and Burnt Area 2 ranged from 4.677 ton ha-1 - 12.580 ton ha-1. In contrast, rubber plantations had higher C-stock in the initial observation distance, around 9.064 ton ha-1 - 11.805 ton ha-1, which may be due to intensive land use near the canal.

Combining Landscape Fire Simulations with Stand-Level Growth Simulations to Assist Landowners in Building Wildfire-Resilient Landscapes

The wildfire regime in Portugal has been responsible for millions of hectares of burnt area, and Alvares parish is no exception. In 2017, a severe wildfire burnt 60% of its area. Land abandonment has been increasing since the mid 20th century, and a large fraction of the forest area belongs to quasi-absent landowners. This has given rise to large, almost unbroken expanses of undermanaged forests that, in combination with rugged topography, originates a landscape prone to large, intense wildfires. Thus, a change in landscape composition and structure capable of reducing flammability and promoting fuel discontinuity is urgently needed. A fire spread simulator and a forest growth simulator were combined to show the impact of improving management at landscape level. It was assumed that the probability of large wildfires may be reduced by setting aside forest area for the implementation of a fuel break network (FBN) and increasing the area under sustainable forest management. Three levels of management intensity were simulated by restricting the area of Quasi-absent non-industrial owners to 34.5%, 20.1%, and 8.5% of the Alvares forest area, in favor of increasing the area of active and semi-active non-industrial owners (current, moderate, and high management scenarios). Different FBN extents, representing four levels of network implementation priority were combined with the management levels, resulting in 12 scenarios. To evaluate the impact of fire, simulations assuming no-fire, no-FBN, and current management intensity were performed, whereas the impact of operation costs was assessed assuming reduced costs for silvicultural operations. Per hectare simulations were then scaled up to the parish level and volume harvested and net present values were used to compare the management improvement scenarios. Results showed that fire has major repercussions on forest income, but these impacts can be minimized. Intensifying forest management and implementing the first priority FBN segments originated substantial improvements in financial outcome from timber production, close to those obtained for the full FBN implementation. Results also evidenced contrasting contributions from industrial and non-industrial owners with the later evidencing unbalanced cash-flows derailing the possibility for interesting forest incomes. The coupling of fire and forest growth simulations can be an interesting approach to assess the impact of different management and policy scenarios and inform policies.

Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020

Understanding the carbon (C) balance in global forest is key for climate-change mitigation. However, land use and environmental drivers affecting global forest C fluxes remain poorly quantified. Here we show, following a counterfactual modelling approach based on global Forest Resource Assessments, that in 1990–2020 deforestation is the main driver of forest C emissions, partly counteracted by increased forest growth rates under altered conditions: In the hypothetical absence of changes in forest (i) area, (ii) harvest or (iii) burnt area, global forest biomass would reverse from an actual cumulative net C source of c. 0.74 GtC to a net C sink of 26.9, 4.9 and 0.63 GtC, respectively. In contrast, (iv) without growth rate changes, cumulative emissions would be 7.4 GtC, i.e., 10 times higher. Because this sink function may be discontinued in the future due to climate-change, ending deforestation and lowering wood harvest emerge here as key climate-change mitigation strategies.

Immunized Token-Based Approach for Autonomous Deployment of Multiple Mobile Robots in Burnt Area

Collaborative exploration, sensing and communication in previously unknown environments with high network latency, such as outer space, battlefields and disaster hit areas are promising in multi-agent applications. When disasters such as large fires or natural disasters occur, previously established networks might be destroyed or incapacitated. In these cases, multiple autonomous mobile robots (AMR) or autonomous unmanned ground vehicles carrying wireless devices and/or thermal sensors can be deployed to create an end-to-end communication and sensing coverage to support rescue efforts or access the severity of damage. However, a fundamental problem is how to rapidly deploy these mobile agents in such complex and dynamic environments. The uncertainties introduced by the operational environment and wide range of scheduling problem have made solving them as a whole challenging. In this paper, we present an efficient decentralized approach for practical mobile agents deployment in unknown, burnt or disaster hit areas. Specifically, we propose an approach that combines methods from Artificial Immune System (AIS) with special token messages passing for a team of interconnected AMR to decide who, when and how to act during deployment process. A distributed scheme is adopted, where each AMR makes its movement decisions based on its local observation and a special token it receives from its neighbors. Empirical evidence of robustness and effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through simulation.

ASSESSMENT OF FIREFIGHTING EFFICIENCY OF VEGETATION FIRES IN CURITIBA-PARANÁ

Vegetation fires, when not controlled, cause economic disruption, temporary loss of vegetation, and damage to soil, fauna and health. To improve the process of fire prevention and firefighting, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of the involved agents. The objective of this study was to evaluate the firefighting efficiency of vegetation fires in the municipality of Curitiba, Paraná, from 2011 to 2015, using records from the Fire Department of the Military Police of Paraná. Once the consistency of the fire records was verified, they were classified and information was gathered regarding the extent of burnt area, time of first attack, combat time, main fire-extinguishing methods used, and amount of water used. The results indicate that 88% of the records registered a burnt area inferior or equal to four hectares. In addition, the mean burnt area was of 2,399.21 m², the mean attack time was of 14.1 minutes, and the mean combat time was of 29.9 minutes, all lower than the ones presented by studies from different locations. As for the fire-extinguishing methods, it was verified that smothering equipment and water were used in 66.4 and 60.6% of the records, respectively. The mean amount of water used was of 1,186.56 liters per fire, indicating a minimum volume necessary for water storage containers for firefighting in the study area. Based on the results, we concluded that the firefighting of vegetation fires in Curitiba is efficient.