Achieving Net Zero: Understanding the Potential Hydrological Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Cover in the UK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Buechel ◽  
Simon Dadson ◽  
Louise Slater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Drainage Basins ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Streamflow Trends

<p>Climate change is set to increase the magnitude and frequency of fluvial flooding in many regions across the world, making it a growing risk to billions of people living near rivers. Changing drainage basin land cover and hydrological connectivity further complicates how these streamflow extremes may evolve. Engineered solutions to mitigate the risk of future high magnitude runoff events to populations may no longer be suitable to meet these needs due to these changes in climate and land cover.</p><p>By reducing the level of global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, climate models predict that we can reduce the severity of climate change impacts upon communities. To achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming, the UK has proposed a range of policies to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. One of these proposals includes widespread afforestation across the UK. Where to plant this woodland and the scale of impact it may have on the future hydrological cycle is currently unquantified. This project seeks to investigate three aspects of how future streamflow trends my change due to afforestation in respect to: woodland location, differing afforestation rates, and the hydrological responsiveness of drainage basins to land cover changes.</p><p>Physics-based models provide the possibility to explore the relative importance of climate and land cover on future streamflow trends, both together and separately. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is used to explore catchment responses across the UK to potential extreme weather events with theoretical changes in land cover at a 1 km resolution. Theoretical land cover scenarios of afforestation were generated according to proximity to existing land cover, drainage basin structure and proposed afforestation sites. An extreme precipitation scenario (the winter of 2013/14) is explored to comprehend streamflow regime response to high magnitude precipitation events caused by changing climate and land cover using the Weather@home perturbed model ensembles and CHESS-met datasets. This approach provides the potential to explore how increasing afforestation could change the discharge dynamics of landscapes across the UK and thus its potential benefits and drawbacks to flood risk management. </p><p>Results show how potential land cover changes will impact streamflow response to storms across the UK. These results help provide a clearer picture of how changing landscape systems impact river response to external climatic forcing and may provide evidence for management and policy strategies tailored to the requirements of individual drainage basins to reduce the risk of flooding upon downstream populations.</p>

A qualitative assessment of the impact of smart homes and environmentally beneficial technologies on the UK 2050 net-zero carbon emission target

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghasson Shabha ◽  
Francesca Barber ◽  
Paul Laycock
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Smart Home ◽  
Smart Homes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Home Technology ◽  
Smart Home Technology

PurposeThere are 29 million homes in the UK, accounting for 14% of the UK's energy consumption. This is given that UK has one of the highest water and energy demands in Europe which needs to be addressed according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC). Smart homes technology holds a current perception that it is principally used by “tech-savvy” users with larger budgets. However, smart home technology can be used to control water, heat and energy in the entire house. This paper investigates how smart home technology could be effectively utilised to aid the UK government in meeting climate change targets and to mitigate the environmental impact of a home in use towards reducing carbon emissions.Design/methodology/approachBoth primary and secondary data were sought to gain insight into the research problem. An epistemological approach to this research is to use interpretivism to analyse data gathered via a semi-structured survey. Two groups of participants were approached: (1) professionals who are deemed knowledgeable about smart home development and implementation and (2) users of smart home technology. A variety of open-ended questions were formulated, allowing participants to elaborate by exploring issues and providing detailed qualitative responses based on their experience in this area which were interpreted quantitatively for clearer analysis.FindingsWith fossil fuel reserves depleting, there is an urgency for renewable, low carbon energy sources to reduce the 5 tonnes annual carbon emissions from a UK household. This requires a multi-faceted and a multimethod approach, relying on the involvement of both the general public and the government in order to be effective. By advancing energy grids to make them more efficient and reliable, concomitant necessitates a drastic change in the way of life and philosophy of homeowners when contemplating a reduction of carbon emissions. If both parties are able to do so, the UK is more likely to reach its 2050 net-zero carbon goal. The presence of a smart meter within the household is equally pivotal. It has a positive effect of reducing the amount of carbon emissions and hence more need to be installed.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research is needed using a larger study sample to achieve more accurate and acceptable generalisations about any future course of action. Further investigation on the specifics of smart technology within the UK household is also needed to reduce the energy consumption in order to meet net-zero carbon 2050 targets due to failures of legislation.Practical implicationsFor smart homes manufacturers and suppliers, more emphasis should be placed to enhance compatibility and interoperability of appliances and devices using different platform and creating more user's friendly manuals supported by step-by-step visual to support homeowners in the light of the wealth of knowledge base generated over the past few years. For homeowners, more emphasis should be placed on creating online knowledge management platform easily accessible which provide virtual support and technical advice to home owners to deal with any operational and technical issues or IT glitches. Developing technical design online platform for built environment professionals on incorporating smart sensors and environmentally beneficial technology during early design and construction stages towards achieving low to zero carbon homes.Originality/valueThis paper bridges a significant gap in the body of knowledge in term of its scope, theoretical validity and practical applicability, highlighting the impact of using smart home technology on the environment. It provides an insight into how the UK government could utilise smart home technology in order to reduce its carbon emission by identifying the potential link between using smart home technology and environmental sustainability in tackling and mitigating climate change. The findings can be applied to other building types and has the potential to employ aspects of smart home technology in order to manage energy and water usage including but not limited to healthcare, commercial and industrial buildings.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate and Land-Cover Changes on Soil Erosion in Brazilian Pantanal

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina Colman ◽  
Paulo Oliveira ◽  
André Almagro ◽  
Britaldo Soares-Filho ◽  
Dulce Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Comprehensive Planning ◽  
Brazilian Pantanal

The Pantanal biome integrates the lowlands of the Upper Paraguay Basin (UPB), which is hydrologically connected to the biomes of the Cerrado and Amazon (the highlands of the UPB). The effects of recent land-cover and land-use (LCLU) changes in the highlands, combined with climate change, are still poorly understood in this region. Here, we investigate the effects of soil erosion in the Brazilian Pantanal under climate and LCLU changes by combining different scenarios of projected rainfall erosivity and land-cover management. We compute the average annual soil erosion for the baseline (2012) and projected scenarios for 2020, 2035, and 2050. For the worst scenario, we noted an increase in soil loss of up to 100% from 2012 to 2050, associated with cropland expansion in some parts of the highlands. Furthermore, for the same period, our results indicated an increase of 20 to 40% in soil loss in parts of the Pantanal biome, which was associated with farmland increase (mainly for livestock) in the lowlands. Therefore, to ensure water, food, energy, and ecosystem service security over the next decades in the whole UPB, robust and comprehensive planning measures need to be developed, especially for the most impacted areas found in our study.

Assessing the effects of the climate change on land cover changes in different time periods

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Khosravi ◽  
Ali Azareh ◽  
Hadi Eskandari Dameneh ◽  
Elham Rafiei Sardoii ◽  
Hamed Eskandari Dameneh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Time Periods

scholarly journals Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan De Niel ◽  
Patrick Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Catchment Characteristics ◽  
Flows Over Time

Abstract. Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the hydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), the intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is projected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changes could amplify these effects by, for example, making runoff on paved surfaces faster. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is still uncertain, and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet well understood. In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variations and land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted a statistical model for historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments in Flanders. The model is able to explain 60 % of the changes in river peak flows over time. It was found that catchment characteristics explain up to 18 % of changes in river peak flows, 6 % of changes in climate variability and 8 % of land cover changes. Steep catchments and catchments with a high proportion of loamic soils are subject to higher peak flows, and an increase in urban area of 1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to 5 %. Interactions between catchment characteristics, climate variations and land cover changes explain up to 32 % of the peak-flow changes, where flat catchments with a low loamic soil content are more sensitive to land cover changes with respect to peak-flow anomalies. This shows the importance of including such interaction terms in data-based attribution studies.

scholarly journals Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan De Niel ◽  
Patrick Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Catchment Characteristics ◽  
Interaction Terms

Abstract. Climate change and land cover changes are influencing the hydrological regime of our rivers. The intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change is projected to cause more flooding in winters and an increased urbanization could amplify these effects by a quicker runoff on paved surfaces. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is still uncertain and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet well understood. In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variability and land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted a statistical model to historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments in Flanders, covering various catchment characteristics. It was found that the catchment characteristics explain up to 18 % of changes in river peak flows, climate variability 6 % and land cover changes 8 %. Interaction terms explain up to 32 %. An increase in urban area of +1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to +5 %.

Temporal Evaluation of Climate Change on Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Southeastern Region of Bangladesh from 2001 to 2016

2021 ◽  
pp. 509-525
Author(s):  
Shahidul Islam ◽  
Mingguo Ma ◽  
Md. Nuralam Hossain ◽  
Sumon Ganguli ◽  
Md Nazirul Islam Sarker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Southeastern Region

scholarly journals Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 21-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
N. Høegh Ravn ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
H. Madsen ◽  
M. Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding

Abstract. The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

scholarly journals Impact of future land cover changes on HNO<sub>3</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> surface dry deposition

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 18459-18485
Author(s):  
T. Verbeke ◽  
J. Lathière ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Vegetation Distribution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is a key component of surface–atmosphere exchange of compounds, acting as a sink for several chemical species. Meteorological factors, chemical properties of the trace gas considered and land surface properties are strong drivers of dry deposition efficiency and variability. Under both climatic and anthropogenic pressure, the vegetation distribution over the Earth has been changing a lot over the past centuries, and could be significantly altered in the future. In this study, we perform a modeling investigation of the potential impact of land-cover changes between present-day (2006) and the future (2050) on dry deposition rates, with special interest for ozone (O3) and nitric acid vapor (HNO3), two compounds which are characterized by very different physico-chemical properties. The 3-D chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA is used, considering changes in vegetation distribution based on the three future projections RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The 2050 RCP 8.5 vegetation distribution leads to a rise up to 7 % (+0.02 cm s−1) in VdO3 and a decrease of −0.06 cm s−1 in VdHNO3 relative to the present day values in tropical Africa, and up to +18 and −15 % respectively in Australia. When taking into account the RCP 4.5 scenario, which shows dramatic land cover change in Eurasia, VdHNO3 increases by up to 20 % (annual-mean value) and reduces VdO3 by the same magnitude in this region. When analyzing the impact of dry deposition change on atmospheric chemical composition, our model calculates that the effect is lower than 1 ppb on annual mean surface ozone concentration, for both for the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. The impact on HNO3 surface concentrations is more disparate between the two scenarios, regarding the spatial repartition of effects. In the case of the RCP 4.5 scenario, a significant increase of the surface O3 concentration reaching locally up to 5 ppb (+5 %) is calculated on average during the June–August period. This scenario induces also an increase of HNO3 deposited flux exceeding locally 10 % for monthly values. Comparing the impact of land-cover change to the impact of climate change, considering a 0.93 °C increase of global temperature, on dry deposition velocities, we estimate that the strongest increase over lands occurs in the North Hemisphere during winter especially in Eurasia, by +50 % (+0.07 cm s−1) for VdO3 and +100 % (+0.9 cm s−1) for VdHNO3. However, different regions are affected by both changes, with climate change impact on deposition characterized by a latitudinal gradient, while the land-cover change impact is much more heterogeneous depending on vegetation distribution modification described in the future RCP scenarios. The impact of long-term land-cover changes on dry deposition is shown to be non-negligible and should be therefore considered in biosphere-atmospheric chemistry interaction studies in order to have a fully consistent picture.

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