Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011
Abstract. Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas with a complex topography. This case study examines outputs of several fire danger rating systems based on data from two meteorological stations in different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion with cool, humid conditions in the lower and warmer, dryer conditions in the upper layer. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to a high fire danger level and multiple fire occurrences at higher elevations were contrasted by moderate fire danger in the valleys. The relative accuracy of fire danger rating indices was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices. Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models in combination with fire danger indices that accept hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.