Wildfire-Atmosphere Interaction Index for Extreme Fire behaviour

During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Often, the prediction of the extreme behaviour is essential for the safety of citizens and fire fighters. Currently, there are several fire danger indices routinely used by firefighting services, but they are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index, extreme fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires as an alternative to the use of traditional fire danger indices. The EFBI evaluates the ease of interaction between wildfires and the atmosphere that could lead to convective, erratic and extreme wildfires. Results of this research in the analysis of some of the critical fires in the last years show that the EFBI can potentially be used to provide valuable information to identify convective fires and to enhance fire danger rating schemes worldwide.

Establishing Relationships between Drought and Wildfire Danger Indices: A Test Case for the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E0) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E0 (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E0 decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E0 (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

Establishing Relationships between Drought and Wildfire Danger Indices: A Test Case for the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System

Relationships between drought and fire danger indices are examined to 1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and 2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E0) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger indices were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E0 (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index [EDDI] and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI]) at approximately annual time scales that reflect buildup of antecedent drought conditions. Results indicate that EDDI and SPEI can inform seasonal fire potential outlooks at the beginning of summer. An E0 decomposition case study of conditions prior to the Tubbs Fire in Northern California indicate high E0 (97th percentile) driven predominantly by low humidity signaled increased fire potential several days before the start of the fire. Initial use of EDDI by fire management groups during summer and fall 2018 highlights several value-added applications, including seasonal fire potential outlooks, funding fire severity level requests, and assessing set-up conditions prior to large, explosive fire cases.

Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

Forest Fire Danger Index Based on Static and Dynamic Parameters Using Satellite Datasets

Forest fire is a major ecological disaster, which has economic, social and environmental impacts on humans and also causes the loss of biodiversity. Forest officials issue the warnings to the public on the basis of fire danger index classes. There is no fire danger index for the country India due to the sparsely distributed meteorological stations. Previous studies suggest that Static Fire Danger Index (SFDI) as well as Dynamic Fire Danger Index (DFDI) have been derived from the satellite datasets. In this study, we have made an attempt to integrate both the Static and Dynamic fire danger indices and also used the Near Real Time (NRT) data sets that can be available for download through NASA FTP server after one hour of the satellite overpass. In this study, DFDI has been calculated from the MODIS Terra NRT Land Surface Temperature (MOD11_L2) and MODIS TERRA NRT surface reflectance MOD09. Finally, The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) has been developed from the static and dynamic fire danger indices by the additive model and the overall accuracy was around 81.27%. Thus, the FFDI has been useful to predict the fire danger accurately and can be useful anywhere, where the meteorological stations are un-available.

A comparison of the US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with recorded fire occurrence and final fire size

Most previous research has assessed the ability of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) to portray fire activity at either single sites or on small spatial scales, despite it being a nation-wide system. This study seeks to examine the relationships between a set of NFDRS fire danger indices (Fire Danger Ratings, Staffing Level and the Ignition Component) and measures of fire activity (fire occurrence and final fire size) across the entire conterminous US over an 8-year period. We reveal that different regions of the US display different levels of correspondence between each of the fire danger indices and recorded fire activity. Areas in the Southern and Eastern Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) exhibit weaker correlations than those in the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Basin and Northern California GACCs. Peaks in fire occurrence are shown to occur at mid–low values of fire danger whereas final fire sizes increase monotonically with each fire danger index. Our findings appear to align with perceived shifts in management practices currently employed across the US and indicate that the ability of the NFDRS to apportion the resources required to combat large fires is in general well developed.

ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF FIRE DANGER INDICES IN FOREST FIRE PREDICTION

ABSTRACT Despite the existence of different fire danger indices, the use of an inefficient index can lead to making wrong decisions on the appropriate procedures for preventing and fighting forest fires, while a trusted prediction index can help the most quantification and allocation of resources for prevention. Thereat, the objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Fire Weather Index (FWI), Logarithmic of Telicyn Index, Nesterov Index, cumulative indexes of precipitation - evaporation (P-EVAP) and evaporation / precipitation (EVAP/P), Monte Alegre Index (FMA) and Monte Alegre Changed Index (FMA+) in the prediction of forest fires for the city of Viçosa (MG). The indices were compared using the method known as Skill Score (SS) taking into account the days that the indexes pointed to the risk of events with focus fire identified by satellite images on the 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2014 period. According to the results, the Logarithm of Telicyn Index (0.53257) as the most efficient for the study area, followed by the indices EVAP/P (0.46553), P-EVAP (0.43724), Nesterov (0.40445), FWI (0.39213), FMA+(0.34595) and FMA (0.28982).