scholarly journals Tipping point analysis of ocean acoustic noise

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie N. Livina ◽  
Albert Brouwer ◽  
Peter Harris ◽  
Lian Wang ◽  
Kostas Sotirakopoulos ◽  
...  

Abstract. We apply tipping point analysis to a large record of ocean acoustic data to identify the main components of the acoustic dynamical system and study possible bifurcations and transitions of the system. The analysis is based on a statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the data using time-series techniques. We analyse long-term and seasonal trends, system states and acoustic fluctuations to reconstruct a one-dimensional stochastic equation to approximate the acoustic dynamical system. We apply potential analysis to acoustic fluctuations and detect several changes in the system states in the past 14 years. These are most likely caused by climatic phenomena. We analyse trends in sound pressure level within different frequency bands and hypothesize a possible anthropogenic impact on the acoustic environment. The tipping point analysis framework provides insight into the structure of the acoustic data and helps identify its dynamic phenomena, correctly reproducing the probability distribution and scaling properties (power-law correlations) of the time series.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie N. Livina ◽  
Albert Brouwer ◽  
Peter Harris ◽  
Lian Wang ◽  
Kostas Sotirakopoulos ◽  
...  

Abstract. We apply tipping point analysis to a large record of ocean acoustic data to identify the main components of the acoustic dynamical system and study possible bifurcations and transitions of the system. The analysis is based on a statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the data using time series techniques. We analyse long-term and seasonal trends, system states and acoustic fluctuations to reconstruct a one-dimensional stochastic equation to approximate the acoustic dynamical system. We apply potential analysis to acoustic fluctuations and detect several changes in the system states in the past 14 years. These are most likely caused by climatic phenomena. We analyse trends in sound pressure level within different frequency bands and hypothesise a possible anthropogenic impact on the acoustic environment. The tipping point analysis framework provides insight into the structure of the acoustic data and helps identify its dynamic phenomena, correctly reproducing the probability distribution and scaling properties (power-law correlations) of the time series.


Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Pedro Carpena ◽  
Manuel Gómez-Extremera ◽  
Pedro A. Bernaola-Galván

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) has become a standard method to quantify the correlations and scaling properties of real-world complex time series. For a given scale ℓ of observation, DFA provides the function F(ℓ), which quantifies the fluctuations of the time series around the local trend, which is substracted (detrended). If the time series exhibits scaling properties, then F(ℓ)∼ℓα asymptotically, and the scaling exponent α is typically estimated as the slope of a linear fitting in the logF(ℓ) vs. log(ℓ) plot. In this way, α measures the strength of the correlations and characterizes the underlying dynamical system. However, in many cases, and especially in a physiological time series, the scaling behavior is different at short and long scales, resulting in logF(ℓ) vs. log(ℓ) plots with two different slopes, α1 at short scales and α2 at large scales of observation. These two exponents are usually associated with the existence of different mechanisms that work at distinct time scales acting on the underlying dynamical system. Here, however, and since the power-law behavior of F(ℓ) is asymptotic, we question the use of α1 to characterize the correlations at short scales. To this end, we show first that, even for artificial time series with perfect scaling, i.e., with a single exponent α valid for all scales, DFA provides an α1 value that systematically overestimates the true exponent α. In addition, second, when artificial time series with two different scaling exponents at short and large scales are considered, the α1 value provided by DFA not only can severely underestimate or overestimate the true short-scale exponent, but also depends on the value of the large scale exponent. This behavior should prevent the use of α1 to describe the scaling properties at short scales: if DFA is used in two time series with the same scaling behavior at short scales but very different scaling properties at large scales, very different values of α1 will be obtained, although the short scale properties are identical. These artifacts may lead to wrong interpretations when analyzing real-world time series: on the one hand, for time series with truly perfect scaling, the spurious value of α1 could lead to wrongly thinking that there exists some specific mechanism acting only at short time scales in the dynamical system. On the other hand, for time series with true different scaling at short and large scales, the incorrect α1 value would not characterize properly the short scale behavior of the dynamical system.


Author(s):  
Paul Ritchie ◽  
Özkan Karabacak ◽  
Jan Sieber

A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the threshold. We derive a simple criterion that relates how far the parameter exceeds the tipping threshold maximally and how long the parameter stays above the threshold to avoid tipping in an inverse-square law to observable properties of the dynamical system near the fold. For the case when the dynamical system is subject to stochastic forcing we give an approximation to the probability of tipping if a parameter changing in time reverses near the tipping point. The derived approximations are valid if the parameter change in time is sufficiently slow. We demonstrate for a higher-dimensional system, a model for the Indian summer monsoon, how numerically observed escape from the equilibrium converge to our asymptotic expressions. The inverse-square law between peak of the parameter forcing and the time the parameter spends above a given threshold is also visible in the level curves of equal probability when the system is subject to random disturbances.


2006 ◽  
Vol 06 (01) ◽  
pp. L7-L15
Author(s):  
ALEXANDROS LEONTITSIS

The paper introduces a method for estimation and reduction of calendar effects from time series, which their fluctuations are governed by a nonlinear dynamical system and additive normal noise. Calendar effects can be considered deviations of the distribution(s) of particular group(s) of observations that have a common characteristic related to the calendar. The concept of this method is the following: since the calendar effects are not related to the dynamics of the time series, the accurate estimation and reduction will result a time series with a smaller amount of noise level (i.e. more accurate dynamics). The main tool of this method is the correlation integral, due to its inherit capability of modeling both the dynamics and the additive normal noise. Experimental results are presented on the Nasdaq Cmp. index.


1998 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Harris ◽  
M. Menabde ◽  
A. Seed ◽  
G. Austin

Abstract. The theory of scale similarity and breakdown coefficients is applied here to intermittent rainfall data consisting of time series and spatial rain fields. The probability distributions (pdf) of the logarithm of the breakdown coefficients are the principal descriptor used. Rain fields are distinguished as being either multiscaling or multiaffine depending on whether the pdfs of breakdown coefficients are scale similar or scale dependent, respectively. Parameter  estimation techniques are developed which are applicable to both multiscaling and multiaffine fields. The scale parameter (width), σ, of the pdfs of the log-breakdown coefficients is a measure of the intermittency of a field. For multiaffine fields, this scale parameter is found to increase with scale in a power-law fashion consistent with a bounded-cascade picture of rainfall modelling. The resulting power-law exponent, H, is indicative of the smoothness of the field. Some details of breakdown coefficient analysis are addressed and a theoretical link between this analysis and moment scaling analysis is also presented. Breakdown coefficient properties of cascades are also investigated in the context of parameter estimation for modelling purposes.


Population ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1320
Author(s):  
J.-M. Z. ◽  
Tong Howell

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