scholarly journals Application of Lévy processes in modelling (geodetic) time series with mixed spectra

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-134
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽  
Xiaoxing He ◽  
Kegen Yu ◽  
Changliang Xiong

Abstract. Recently, various models have been developed, including the fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to analyse the stochastic properties of geodetic time series together with the estimated geophysical signals. The noise spectrum of these time series is generally modelled as a mixed spectrum, with a sum of white and coloured noise. Here, we are interested in modelling the residual time series after deterministically subtracting geophysical signals from the observations. This residual time series is then assumed to be a sum of three stochastic processes, including the family of Lévy processes. The introduction of a third stochastic term models the remaining residual signals and other correlated processes. Via simulations and real time series, we identify three classes of Lévy processes, namely Gaussian, fractional and stable. In the first case, residuals are predominantly constituted of short-memory processes. The fractional Lévy process can be an alternative model to the fBm in the presence of long-term correlations and self-similarity properties. The stable process is here restrained to the special case of infinite variance, which can be only satisfied in the case of heavy-tailed distributions in the application to geodetic time series. Therefore, the model implies potential anxiety in the functional model selection, where missing geophysical information can generate such residual time series.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽  
Xiaoxing He ◽  
Kegen Yu ◽  
Changliang Xiong

Abstract. Recently, various models have been developed, including the fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to analyse the stochastic properties of geodetic time series, together with the estimated geophysical signals. The noise spectrum of these time series is generally modelled as a mixed spectrum, with a sum of white and coloured noise. Here, we are interested in modelling the residual time series, after deterministically subtracting geophysical signals from the observations. This residual time series is then assumed to be a sum of three stochastic processes, including the family of Lévy processes. The introduction of a third stochastic term models the remaining residual signals and other correlated processes. Via simulations and real time series,we identify three classes of Lévy processes: Gaussian, fractional and stable. In the first case, residuals are predominantly constituted of short-memory processes. Fractional Lévy process can be an alternative model to the fBm in the presence of long-term correlations and self-similarity property. Stable process is here restrained to the special case of infinite variance, which can be only satisfied in the case of heavy-tailed distributions in the application to geodetic time series. Therefore, it implies potential anxiety in the functional model selection where missing geophysical information can generate such residual time series.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Montillet ◽  
Xiaoxing He ◽  
Kegen Yu

Abstract. Recently, various models have been developed, including the fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to analyse the stochastic properties of geodetic time series, together with the extraction of geophysical signals. The noise spectrum of these time series is generally modeled as a mixed spectrum, with a sum of white and coloured noise. Here, we are interested in modelling the residual time series, after deterministically subtracting geophysical signals from the observations. This residual time series is then assumed to be a sum of three random variables (r.v.), with the last r.v. belonging to the family of Levy processes. This stochastic term models the remaining residual signals and other correlated processes. Via simulations and real time series, we identify three classes of Levy processes: Gaussian, fractional and stable. In the first case, residuals are predominantly constituted of short-memory processes. Fractional Levy process can be an alternative model to the fBm in the presence of long-term correlations and self-similarity property. Stable process is characterized by a large variance, which can be satisfied in the case of heavy-tailed distributions. The application to geodetic time series implies potential anxiety in the functional model selection where missing geophysical information can generate such residual time series.


1998 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Cohen ◽  
Sidney Resnick ◽  
Gennady Samorodnitsky

When the elements of a stationary ergodic time series have finite variance the sample correlation function converges (with probability 1) to the theoretical correlation function. What happens in the case where the variance is infinite? In certain cases, the sample correlation function converges in probability to a constant, but not always. If within a class of heavy tailed time series the sample correlation functions do not converge to a constant, then more care must be taken in making inferences and in model selection on the basis of sample autocorrelations. We experimented with simulating various heavy tailed stationary sequences in an attempt to understand what causes the sample correlation function to converge or not to converge to a constant. In two new cases, namely the sum of two independent moving averages and a random permutation scheme, we are able to provide theoretical explanations for a random limit of the sample autocorrelation function as the sample grows.


2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (03) ◽  
pp. 636-648
Author(s):  
David Applebaum ◽  
Stefan Blackwood

We extend the Kalman-Bucy filter to the case where both the system and observation processes are driven by finite dimensional Lévy processes, but whereas the process driving the system dynamics is square-integrable, that driving the observations is not; however it remains integrable. The main result is that the components of the observation noise that have infinite variance make no contribution to the filtering equations. The key technique used is approximation by processes having bounded jumps.


2007 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 1012-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowen Zhou

For a spectrally negative Lévy process X on the real line, let S denote its supremum process and let I denote its infimum process. For a > 0, let τ(a) and κ(a) denote the times when the reflected processes Ŷ := S − X and Y := X − I first exit level a, respectively; let τ−(a) and κ−(a) denote the times when X first reaches Sτ(a) and Iκ(a), respectively. The main results of this paper concern the distributions of (τ(a), Sτ(a), τ−(a), Ŷτ(a)) and of (κ(a), Iκ(a), κ−(a)). They generalize some recent results on spectrally negative Lévy processes. Our approach relies on results concerning the solution to the two-sided exit problem for X. Such an approach is also adapted to study the excursions for the reflected processes. More explicit expressions are obtained when X is either a Brownian motion with drift or a completely asymmetric stable process.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ostap Okhrin

AbstractThe paper uses Lévy processes and bivariate Lévy copulae in order to model the behavior of intraday log-returns. Based on assumptions about the form of marginal tail integrals and a Clayton Lévy copula, the model allows for capturing intraday cross-dependency. The model is applied to VaR of the portfolios constructed on stock returns as well as on cryptocurrencies. The proposed method shows fair performance compared to classical time series models.


2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 636-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Applebaum ◽  
Stefan Blackwood

We extend the Kalman-Bucy filter to the case where both the system and observation processes are driven by finite dimensional Lévy processes, but whereas the process driving the system dynamics is square-integrable, that driving the observations is not; however it remains integrable. The main result is that the components of the observation noise that have infinite variance make no contribution to the filtering equations. The key technique used is approximation by processes having bounded jumps.


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