Generating unfavourable VaR scenarios under Solvency II with patchwork copulas

The central idea of the paper is to present a general simple patchwork construction principle for multivariate copulas that create unfavourable VaR (i.e. Value at Risk) scenarios while maintaining given marginal distributions. This is of particular interest for the construction of Internal Models in the insurance industry under Solvency II in the European Union. Besides this, the Delegated Regulation by the European Commission requires all insurance companies under supervision to consider different risk scenarios in their risk management system for the company’s own risk assessment. Since it is unreasonable to assume that the potential worst case scenario will materialize in the company, we think that a modelling of various unfavourable scenarios as described in this paper is likewise appropriate. Our explicit copula approach can be considered as a special case of ordinal sums, which in two dimensions even leads to the technically worst VaR scenario.

On copulas of self-similar Ito processes

We characterize the cumulative distribution functions and copulas of two-dimensional self-similar Ito processes, with randomly correlated Wiener margins, as solutions of certain elliptic partial differential equations.

Diagonal sections of copulas, multivariate conditional hazard rates and distributions of order statistics for minimally stable lifetimes

As a motivating problem, we aim to study some special aspects of the marginal distributions of the order statistics for exchangeable and (more generally) for minimally stable non-negative random variables T 1, ..., Tr. In any case, we assume that T 1, ..., Tr are identically distributed, with a common survival function ̄G and their survival copula is denoted by K. The diagonal sections of K, along with ̄G, are possible tools to describe the information needed to recover the laws of order statistics. When attention is restricted to the absolutely continuous case, such a joint distribution can be described in terms of the associated multivariate conditional hazard rate (m.c.h.r.) functions. We then study the distributions of the order statistics of T 1, ..., Tr also in terms of the system of the m.c.h.r. functions. We compare and, in a sense, we combine the two different approaches in order to obtain different detailed formulas and to analyze some probabilistic aspects for the distributions of interest. This study also leads us to compare the two cases of exchangeable and minimally stable variables both in terms of copulas and of m.c.h.r. functions. The paper concludes with the analysis of two remarkable special cases of stochastic dependence, namely Archimedean copulas and load sharing models. This analysis will allow us to provide some illustrative examples, and some discussion about peculiar aspects of our results.

Dispersive order comparisons on extreme order statistics from homogeneous dependent random vectors

In this paper, we investigate sufficient conditions for preservation property of the dispersive order for the smallest and largest order statistics of homogeneous dependent random vectors. Moreover, we establish sufficient conditions for ordering with the dispersive order the largest order statistics from dependent homogeneous samples of different sizes.

Asymptotic normality of the relative error regression function estimator for censored and time series data

Consider a survival time study, where a sequence of possibly censored failure times is observed with d-dimensional covariate The main goal of this article is to establish the asymptotic normality of the kernel estimator of the relative error regression function when the data exhibit some kind of dependency. The asymptotic variance is explicitly given. Some simulations are drawn to lend further support to our theoretical result and illustrate the good accuracy of the studied method. Furthermore, a real data example is treated to show the good quality of the prediction and that the true data are well inside in the confidence intervals.

On partially Schur-constant models and their associated copulas

Schur-constant vectors are used to model duration phenomena in various areas of economics and statistics. They form a particular class of exchangeable vectors and, as such, rely on a strong property of symmetry. To broaden the field of applications, partially Schur-constant vectors are introduced which correspond to partially exchangeable vectors. First, their copulas of survival, said to be partially Archimedean, are explicitly obtained and analyzed. Next, much attention is devoted to the construction of different partially Schur-constant models with two groups of exchangeable variables. Finally, partial Schur-constancy is briefly extended to the modeling of nested and multi-level dependencies.

Generalized Bernoulli process: simulation, estimation, and application

A generalized Bernoulli process (GBP) is a stationary process consisting of binary variables that can capture long-memory property. In this paper, we propose a simulation method for a sample path of GBP and an estimation method for the parameters in GBP. Method of moments estimation and maximum likelihood estimation are compared through empirical results from simulation. Application of GBP in earthquake data during the years of 1800-2020 in the region of conterminous U.S. is provided.

Generalized Bernoulli process with long-range dependence and fractional binomial distribution

Bernoulli process is a finite or infinite sequence of independent binary variables, X i , i = 1, 2, · · ·, whose outcome is either 1 or 0 with probability P(X i = 1) = p, P(X i = 0) = 1 – p, for a fixed constant p ∈ (0, 1). We will relax the independence condition of Bernoulli variables, and develop a generalized Bernoulli process that is stationary and has auto-covariance function that obeys power law with exponent 2H – 2, H ∈ (0, 1). Generalized Bernoulli process encompasses various forms of binary sequence from an independent binary sequence to a binary sequence that has long-range dependence. Fractional binomial random variable is defined as the sum of n consecutive variables in a generalized Bernoulli process, of particular interest is when its variance is proportional to n 2 H , if H ∈ (1/2, 1).