scholarly journals Reconstructing the glacier contribution to sea-level rise back to 1850

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
M. Dyurgerov ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Direct Evidence ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Continuous Mass ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract. We present a method to estimate the glacier contribution to sea-level rise from glacier length records. These records form the only direct evidence of glacier changes prior to 1946, when the first continuous mass-balance observations began. A globally representative length signal is calculated from 197 length records from all continents by normalisation and averaging of 14 different regions. Next, the resulting signal is calibrated with mass-balance observations for the period 1961–2000. We find that the glacier contribution to sea level rise was 5.5±1.0 cm during the period 1850–2000 and 4.5±0.7 cm during the period 1900–2000.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the glacier contribution to sea-level rise back to 1850

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
M. Dyurgerov ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Direct Evidence ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract. We present a method to estimate the glacier contribution to sea-level rise from glacier length records. These records form the only direct evidence of glacier changes prior to 1946, when the first systematic mass-balance observations began. A globally representative length signal is calculated from 197 length records from all continents by normalisation and averaging of 14 different regions. Next, the resulting signal is calibrated with mass-balance observations for the period 1961–2000. We find that the glacier contribution to sea level rise was 5.5±1.0 cm during the period 1850–2000 and 4.5±0.7 cm during the period 1900–2000.

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

The Andes Cordillera. Part III: glacier surface mass balance and contribution to sea level rise (1979-2014)

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 3154-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian H. Mernild ◽  
Glen E. Liston ◽  
Christopher Hiemstra ◽  
Ryan Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Andes Cordillera

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

scholarly journals The response of glaciers to climatic persistence

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (233) ◽  
pp. 440-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
GERARD H. ROE ◽  
MARCIA B. BAKER
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Glacier Changes ◽  
Actual Degree ◽  
Glacier Length ◽  
Temporal Persistence ◽  
Random Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe attribution of past glacier length fluctuations to changes in climate requires characterizing glacier mass-balance variability. Observational records, which are relatively short, are consistent with random fluctuations uncorrelated in time, plus an anthropogenic trend. However, longer records of other climate variables suggest that, in fact, there is a degree of temporal persistence associated with internal (i.e. unforced) climate variability, and that it varies with location and climate. Therefore, it is likely that persistence does exist for mass balance, but records are too short to confirm its presence, or establish its magnitude, with conventional statistical tests. Extending the previous work, we explore the impact of potential climatic persistence on glacier length fluctuations. We use a numerical model and a newly developed analytical model to establish that persistence, even of a degree so small as to be effectively undetectable in the longest mass-balance records, can significantly enhance the resulting glacier length fluctuations. This has a big impact on glacier-excursion probabilities: what was an extremely unlikely event (<1%) can become virtually certain (>99%), when persistence is incorporated. Since the actual degree of climatic persistence that applies to any given glacier is hard to establish, these results complicate the attribution of past glacier changes.

Ice sheet mass balance and sea level

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Allison ◽  
R.B. Alley ◽  
H.A. Fricker ◽  
R.H. Thomas ◽  
R.C. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Measurement Technology ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance

AbstractDetermining the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) has long been a major challenge for polar science. But until recent advances in measurement technology, the uncertainty in ice sheet mass balance estimates was greater than any net contribution to sea level change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) was able, for the first time, to conclude that, taken together, the GIS and AIS have probably been contributing to sea level rise over the period 1993–2003 at an average rate estimated at 0.4 mm yr-1. Since the cut-off date for work included in AR4, a number of further studies of the mass balance of GIS and AIS have been made using satellite altimetry, satellite gravity measurements and estimates of mass influx and discharge using a variety of techniques. Overall, these studies reinforce the conclusion that the ice sheets are contributing to present sea level rise, and suggest that the rate of loss from GIS has recently increased. The largest unknown in the projections of sea level rise over the next century is the potential for rapid dynamic collapse of ice sheets.

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. Aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute to global sea level rise between 1.9 and 13.0 cm until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking Helheim and Store Glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

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