scholarly journals IcePAC – a Probabilistic Tool to Study Sea Ice Spatiotemporal Dynamic: Application to the Hudson Bay area, Northeastern Canada

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Gignac ◽  
Monique Bernier ◽  
Karem Chokmani
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Reliable Knowledge ◽  
Informative Content

Abstract. A reliable knowledge and assessment of the sea ice conditions and their evolution in time is a priority for numerous decision makers in the domains of coastal and offshore management and engineering as well as in commercial navigation. As of today, countless research projects aimed at both modelling and mapping past, actual and future sea ice conditions were realized using sea ice numerical models, statistical models, educated guesses or remote sensing imagery. From these research, reliable information helping to understand sea ice evolution in space and in time are available to stakeholders. However, no research has, as of today, assessed the evolution of the sea ice cover with a frequency modelling approach, by identifying the underlying theoretical distribution describing the sea ice behaviour at a given point in space and time. This project suggests the development of a probabilistic tool, named IcePAC, based on frequency modelling of historical 1978–2015 passive microwave sea ice concentrations maps from EUMETSAT OSI-409 product, to study the sea ice spatiotemporal behaviour in the waters of the Hudson Bay System in Northeastern Canada. Pixel scale models are based on the generalized Beta distribution and generated at a weekly temporal resolution. Results showed coherent with the Canadian Ice Service 1980–2010 Sea Ice Climatic Atlas average freeze-up and meltdown dates for numerous coastal communities in the study area and showed that it is possible to evaluate a range of plausible events, such as the shortest and longest probable ice free season duration, for any given location on the simulation domain. This innovative research opens a path towards various analyses on sea ice dynamics that would gain in informative content and value by relying on the kind of probabilistic information and simulation data available from the IcePAC tool.

scholarly journals IcePAC – a probabilistic tool to study sea ice spatio-temporal dynamics: application to the Hudson Bay area

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Gignac ◽  
Monique Bernier ◽  
Karem Chokmani
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. A reliable knowledge and assessment of the sea ice conditions and their evolution in time is a priority for numerous decision makers in the domains of coastal and offshore management and engineering as well as in commercial navigation. As of today, countless research projects aimed at both modelling and mapping past, actual and future sea ice conditions were completed using sea ice numerical models, statistical models, educated guesses or remote sensing imagery. From this research, reliable information helping to understand sea ice evolution in space and in time is available to stakeholders. However, no research has, until present, assessed the evolution of sea ice cover with a frequency modelling approach, by identifying the underlying theoretical distribution describing the sea ice behaviour at a given point in space and time. This project suggests the development of a probabilistic tool, named IcePAC, based on frequency modelling of historical 1978–2015 passive microwave sea ice concentrations maps from the EUMETSAT OSI-409 product, to study the sea ice spatio-temporal behaviour in the waters of the Hudson Bay system in northeast Canada. Grid-cell-scale models are based on the generalized beta distribution and generated at a weekly temporal resolution. Results showed coherence with the Canadian Ice Service 1981–2010 Sea Ice Climatic Atlas average freeze-up and melt-out dates for numerous coastal communities in the study area and showed that it is possible to evaluate a range of plausible events, such as the shortest and longest probable ice-free season duration, for any given location in the simulation domain. Results obtained in this project pave the way towards various analyses on sea ice concentration spatio-temporal distribution patterns that would gain in terms of information content and value by relying on the kind of probabilistic information and simulation data available from the IcePAC tool.

A new coupled model to shed light on sea-ice--ocean interactions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Boutin ◽  
Einar Ólason ◽  
Pierre Rampal ◽  
Camille Lique ◽  
Claude Talandier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Damage Propagation ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

<p>Sea ice is a key component of the earth’s climate system as it modulates air-sea interactions in polar regions. These interactions strongly depend on openings in the sea ice cover, which are associated with fine-scale sea ice deformations. Visco-plastic sea ice rheologies used in most numerical models struggle at representing these fine-scale sea ice dynamics without going to very costly horizontal resolutions (~1km). A solution is to use damage propagation sea ice models, which were shown to reproduce well sea ice deformations with little dependency on the mesh resolution. </p><p>Here we present results from the first ocean--sea-ice coupled model using a rheology with damage propagation. The ocean component is the NEMO-OPA model. The sea ice component is neXtSIM, introducing the newly developed Brittle Bingham-Maxwell rheology. Results show that sea ice dynamics are very well represented from large scales (sea ice drift) to small-scales (sea ice deformation). Sea ice properties relevant for climate, i.e volume and area, also show a remarkable match with satellite observations. This coupled framework opens new opportunities to quantify the impact of small-scale sea ice dynamics on ice-ocean interactions.</p>

scholarly journals Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e2957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H. Ferguson ◽  
Brent G. Young ◽  
David J. Yurkowski ◽  
Randi Anderson ◽  
Cornelia Willing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Body Condition ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Southern Limit ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

scholarly journals Demographic, ecological and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H Ferguson ◽  
Brent G Young ◽  
David J Yurkowski ◽  
Randi Anderson ◽  
Cornelia Willing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Body Condition ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Southern Limit ◽  
Environmental Event ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida ) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003-2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995-2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open waterperiods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (NAO, AO, ENSO) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with the highest stress levels and the lowest recorded ovulation rate and low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

Simulation of Sea Ice Dynamics During AIDJEX

1977 ◽  
Vol 99 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Pritchard ◽  
M. D. Coon ◽  
M. G. McPhee
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Pack Ice ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Ice

A mathematical model is used to simulate sea ice conditions observed during May 15–25, 1975 as part of the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment. Calculated motions and forces within the region are compared with observed values. Ice velocity and tractions exerted on the upper and lower ice surface compare well with observed values. Results of another calculation using different boundary layer parameters help assess the effect of boundary layer models on the computed ice drift. The calculated strain field does not compare with observed strains well enough to allow prediction of stress in the pack ice. Several sources of error have been identified for future study.

scholarly journals The influence of sea ice dynamics on population energetics of Western Hudson Bay polar bears

Authorea ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Johnson ◽  
Jody Reimer ◽  
Nicholas Lunn ◽  
Ian Stirling ◽  
David McGeachy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Polar Bears ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Western Hudson Bay ◽  
Population Energetics

scholarly journals What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic Archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Laliberté ◽  
Stephen E. L. Howell ◽  
Jean-François Lemieux ◽  
Frédéric Dupont ◽  
Ji Lei
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Landfast Ice ◽  
Ice Conditions

Abstract. Arctic landfast ice extent and duration from observations, ice assimilations, ocean re-analyses and coupled models are examined. From observations and assimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions last more than 5 months the first-year ice grows typically to more than 2 m and is rarely less than 1 m. The observed spatial distribution of landfast ice closely matches assimilation products but less so for ocean re-analyses and coupled models. Although models generally struggle to represent the landfast ice necessary to emulate the observed sea ice dynamics in regions favourable to landfast ice conditions, some do exhibit both a realistic climatology and a realistic decline of landfast ice extent under an anthropogenic forcing scenario. In these more realistic simulations, projections show that an extensive landfast ice cover should remain for at least 5 months of the year well until the end of the 21st century. This is in stark contrast with the simulations that have an unrealistic emulation of landfast ice conditions. In these simulations, slow and packed ice conditions shrink markedly over the same period. In all simulations and in areas with landast ice that last more than 5 months, the end-of-winter sea ice thickness remains between 1 m and 2 m well beyond the second half of the century. It is concluded that in the current generation of climate models, projections of winter sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Laptev Sea are overly sensitive to the representation of landfast ice conditions and that ongoing development in landfast ice parametrization will likely better constrain these projections.

scholarly journals Demographic, ecological and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H Ferguson ◽  
Brent G Young ◽  
David J Yurkowski ◽  
Randi Anderson ◽  
Cornelia Willing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Body Condition ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Southern Limit ◽  
Environmental Event ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida ) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003-2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995-2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open waterperiods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (NAO, AO, ENSO) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with the highest stress levels and the lowest recorded ovulation rate and low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.

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