scholarly journals Statistical behaviours of earthquake occurrences in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey: region-time-magnitude analyses

Baltica ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 157-173
Author(s):  
Serkan Öztürk
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
B Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Recurrence Times ◽  
Z Value ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The main objective of this work is to make detailed region-time-magnitude analyses by describing the statistical behaviours of earthquakes in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey. In this scope, several seismic and tectonic parameters such as Mcomp, b-value, Dc-value, Z-value, recurrence times and annual probabilities were evaluated. For the analyses, a homogeneous catalogue including 10,146 earthquakes with 1.0 ≤ Md ≤ 5.7 between 30 July 1975 and 29 December 2018 was used and spatio-temporal changes of earthquake behaviours were mapped for the beginning of 2019. Earthquake magnitudes varied from 1.9 to 3.0 on average, and hence Mcomp was considered to be 2.6. The b-value was calculated as 1.26 ± 0.07, and this relatively large value indicates that small-magnitude events are dominant. The Dc-value was computed as 1.31 ± 0.03. This small value means that distances between epicentres approach the diameter of the cluster, and seismic activity is more clustered at smaller scales or in larger regions. The spatio-temporal analyses of recurrence times suggest that the Central Anatolian Region has an intermediate/long-term earthquake hazard in comparison to occurrences of strong earthquakes in the short term. Several anomaly regions of a small b-value and a large Z-value were found in and around the Tuzgölü Fault Zone, Central Anatolian Fault Zone, Salanda fault and Niğde fault at the beginning of 2019. Thus, a combination of the regions with a lower b-value, a higher Z-value and also moderate recurrence times may give significant clues for the future possible earthquakes, and detected regions may be thought to be the most likely areas for strong/large events in the Central Anatolian Region.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ashworth ◽  
◽  
Antonis Analitis ◽  
David Whitney ◽  
Evangelia Samoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals Assessing the Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Forest Species via Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Óscar Rodríguez de Rivera ◽  
Antonio López-Quílez ◽  
Marta Blangiardo
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Address Climate Change ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Relationship

Climatic change is expected to affect forest development in the short term, as well as the spatial distribution of species in the long term. Species distribution models are potentially useful tools for guiding species choices in reforestation and forest management prescriptions to address climate change. The aim of this study is to build spatial and spatio-temporal models to predict the distribution of four different species present in the Spanish Forest Inventory. We have compared the different models and showed how accounting for dependencies in space and time affect the relationship between species and environmental variables.

Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (6) ◽  
pp. 2340-2355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziyao Xiong ◽  
Jiancang Zhuang ◽  
Shiyong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Method ◽  
North China ◽  
Voronoi Tessellation ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
B Value ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Function Estimation ◽  
Simulation Experiments

Abstract In this study, to obtain optimal estimates of the earthquake hazard in North China based on the modern earthquake catalog, we used two variable kernel function estimation methods, proposed by Stock and Smith, and Zhuang, the Bayesian Delaunay tessellation smoothing method by Ogata (ODTB), and a newly proposed incomplete centroidal Voronoi tessellation (ICVT) method, to calculate the total and background seismic spatial occurrence rates for the study area. The sophisticated ODTB method is more stable than the others, but is relatively expensive, in terms of computation demands, whereas Zhuang et al.’s kernel estimate and the new ICVT method are able to provide reasonable estimates and easier to implement. We also calculated the spatial variations of the b‐value, using the Bayesian method with smoothness prior proposed by Ogata. Using comparative analyses and simulation experiments, we show that all of the methods give similar spatial patterns of seismic occurrences.

Development and amplification of mid-afternoon surges of prolactin secretion in ovariectomized immature rats

1986 ◽  
Vol 110 (2) ◽  
pp. 361-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. F. Urbanski ◽  
S. R. Ojeda
Keyword(s):  
Prolactin Secretion ◽  
Ovariectomized Rats ◽  
Female Rat ◽  
Plasma Prolactin ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Neuroendocrine Mechanisms ◽  
Phases Of Development ◽  
Juvenile Development

ABSTRACT The immature female rat shows a mid-afternoon surge of prolactin secretion which reaches a maximum on the day of first pro-oestrus. The present experiments were undertaken to elucidate the mechanisms which underly the development of this prolactin discharge. Detailed plasma prolactin profiles were obtained from short-term (48 h) ovariectomized rats at 23, 28 or 37 days of age. In the two older groups, but not the youngest, a mid-afternoon surge of prolactin secretion occurred in spite of the absence of the ovaries. To exclude the possibility that such an apparent ovarian-independent discharge of prolactin was due to an oestradiol effect which persisted for 2 days following ovariectomy, another study was conducted using long-term ovariectomized animals. Plasma profiles were obtained from neonatally ovariectomized rats at ages equivalent to juvenile (26–28 days), peripubertal (38–41 days) or adult (46–49 days) phases of development. A mid-afternoon surge of prolactin secretion was observed in the majority of animals (eight out of twelve) irrespective of the interval after ovariectomy; this finding further indicates that in the female rat there is a centrally originated mid-afternoon episode of prolactin secretion which is expressed during juvenile development even in the absence of the ovaries. The relatively small magnitude of these ovarian-independent prolactin discharges (c.f. the preovulatory prolactin surge) suggested that in the intact animal they are amplified by ovarian secretions. To test this hypothesis, oestradiol-containing silicone elastomer capsules were implanted s.c. into juvenile rats, immediately after ovariectomy, and plasma prolactin profiles examined 2 days later (28 days of age). In all cases the prolactin surge was greatly amplified and in many instances the magnitude was identical to that observed at first pro-oestrus. These data suggest that development of the large pro-oestrous surge of prolactin secretion involves the interplay of at least two distinct neuroendocrine mechanisms: (1) a centrally originated ovarian-independent signal and (2) an amplification effect exerted by ovarian oestradiol. J. Endocr. (1986) 110, 361–366

scholarly journals Finding Action Tubes with a Sparse-to-Dense Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (07) ◽  
pp. 11466-11473
Author(s):  
Yuxi Li ◽  
Weiyao Lin ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
John See ◽  
Rui Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Feature ◽  
Video Streams ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Benchmark Datasets ◽  
Tube Output ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
First Time ◽  
Temporal Action

The task of spatial-temporal action detection has attracted increasing researchers. Existing dominant methods solve this problem by relying on short-term information and dense serial-wise detection on each individual frames or clips. Despite their effectiveness, these methods showed inadequate use of long-term information and are prone to inefficiency. In this paper, we propose for the first time, an efficient framework that generates action tube proposals from video streams with a single forward pass in a sparse-to-dense manner. There are two key characteristics in this framework: (1) Both long-term and short-term sampled information are explicitly utilized in our spatio-temporal network, (2) A new dynamic feature sampling module (DTS) is designed to effectively approximate the tube output while keeping the system tractable. We evaluate the efficacy of our model on the UCF101-24, JHMDB-21 and UCFSports benchmark datasets, achieving promising results that are competitive to state-of-the-art methods. The proposed sparse-to-dense strategy rendered our framework about 7.6 times more efficient than the nearest competitor.

A Logic-Based Approach to Activity Recognition

2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Alexander Artikis ◽  
Marek Sergot ◽  
Georgios Paliouras
Keyword(s):  
Activity Recognition ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Video Content ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Event Calculus ◽  
Video Frames ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Complex Activities

The authors have been developing a system for recognising human activities given a symbolic representation of video content. The input of the system is a stream of time-stamped short-term activities detected on video frames. The output of the system is a set of recognised long-term activities, which are pre-defined spatio-temporal combinations of short-term activities. The constraints on the short-term activities that, if satisfied, lead to the recognition of a long-term activity, are expressed using a dialect of the Event Calculus. The authors illustrate the expressiveness of the dialect by showing the representation of several typical complex activities. Furthermore, they present a detailed evaluation of the system through experimentation on a benchmark dataset of surveillance videos.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Landslides in Java and the Triggering Factors

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danang Sri Hadmoko ◽  
Franck Lavigne ◽  
Junun Sartohadi ◽  
Christopher Gomez ◽  
D Daryono
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Gis Environment

Java Island, the most populated island of Indonesia, is prone to landslide disasters. Their occurrence and impact have increased mainly as the result of natural factors, aggravated by human imprint. This paper is intended to analyse: (1) the spatio-temporal variation of landslides in Java during short term and long-term periods, and (2) their causative factors such as rainfall, topography, geology, earthquakes, and land-use. The evaluation spatially and temporally of historical landslides and consequences were based on the landslide database covering the period of 1981 – 2007 in the GIS environment. Database showed that landslides distributed unevenly between West Java (67 %), Central Java (29 %) and East Java (4 %). Slope failures were most abundant on the very intensively weathered zone of old volcanic materials on slope angles of 30O – 40O. Rainfall threshold analysis showed that shallow landslides and deep-seated landslides were triggered by rainfall events of 300 – 600 mm and > 600 mm respectively of antecedent rainfall during 30 consecutive days, and many cases showed that the landslides were not always initiated by intense rainfall during the landslide day. Human interference plays an important role in landslide occurrence through land conversion from natural forest to dryland agriculture which was the host of most of landslides in Java. These results and methods can be used as valuable information on the spatio-temporal characteristics of landslides in Java and their relationship with causative factors, thereby providing a sound basis for landslide investigation in more detail.

Is competition with livestock detrimental for native wild ungulates? A case study of chital (Axis axis) in Gir Forest, India

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (03) ◽  
pp. 239-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chittaranjan Dave ◽  
Yadvendradev Jhala
Keyword(s):  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Axis Axis ◽  
Habitat Productivity ◽  
Average Group ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Term Response

Abstract:Livestock graze Indian forests to varying extents but their impact on wild native ungulates is rarely understood. Negative impacts of sympatric livestock on chital (Axis axis) demography and food availability were assessed and compared in the Gir Forest, India, at different spatio-temporal scales. No difference in average group size (mean ± SE) (7.11 ± 0.8 indiv.) (short-term response), fawn to doe ratio (0.43 ± 0.03) (short- to medium-term response), chital density (44.8 ± 7.1 indiv. km−2) (medium- to long-term response), and rate of population increase (r= 0.07 ± 0.014) (long-term response) was found between areas sympatric and livestock-free at the larger spatial scale of Gir Forest. Instead, chital density was correlated with rainfall (r= 0.92). After controlling for confounding factors of rainfall, vegetation community, terrain and lion density, chital density was 62% higher for livestock-free compared with sympatric areas but other demographic parameters showed no statistical difference. Peak above-ground biomass was greater in livestock-free (3255 ± 209 kg ha−1) compared to sympatric areas (1438 ± 152 kg ha−1), but chital food was more abundant in moderately grazed areas compared to livestock-free areas. Overall, long-term livestock grazing has depressive effects on chital but in the short term habitat productivity and suitability overrides the depressive effects of sympatric livestock.

Comparison of long-term and short-term uplift rates along an active blind reverse fault zone (Bajo Segura, Se Spain)

2009 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Giménez ◽  
Maria J. Borque ◽  
Antonio J. Gil ◽  
Pedro Alfaro ◽  
Antonio Estévez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Reverse Fault ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Se Spain ◽  
Uplift Rates
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