The causal relationships between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui-Ching Sana Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causal Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Southeast Asian Countries

Purpose – The real estate markets in Asia have attracted significant investor attention as they have grown rapidly in recent years. Both local and foreign investors continue to display a strong appetite for Asian real estate investment projects. Given the different characteristics of listed real estate stocks, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the causal relations between the financial variables of these stocks. This financial analysis can help investors to understand the characteristics of listed real estate companies, provide implications for optimal asset allocation decisions, and also increase the predictability of portfolio returns. Design/methodology/approach – In this research, the paper investigates the contemporaneous and causal relations between stock returns, trading volume and volatility in a domestic market context and between different national markets for listed real estate companies in seven Asian economies. Findings – The paper finds that there are positive contemporaneous relations between trading volume and both returns and absolute returns. When the paper examines the causal relations between the financial variables, the evidence implies that current trading volume helps to explain the returns indirectly by leading return volatility; however, trading volume does not help to explain future returns directly. Extending the causality test to international markets, the listed real estate portfolios of the four Southeast Asian countries are found to be more closely correlated than those of the other three countries studied here. Among the four Southeast Asian countries, Singapore, the only developed country, is found to play an influential role, its current financial variables having predictive power for the other countries. Originality/value – This research provides global investors with a better understanding of the Asian listed real estate market, showing that trading volume contains important information regarding returns, that the characteristics of listed real estate companies are closer to those of the financial market than those of the real estate markets, and that the markets of the major economies have extensive influence over the smaller markets. Moreover, given the scarcity of research on the performance of Asian listed real estate companies themselves, this study improves the completeness of the academic literature.

European emerging real estate markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Haran ◽  
Michael McCord ◽  
Peadar Davis ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Colm Lauder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to improve the transparency of European emerging real estate market dynamics and performance attributes in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis (GFC). The paper examines the extent and nature of inter-relationships between three emerging real estate markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland as well as determining the rationale for including emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment portfolio. The paper affords a timely update following the reinstatement of lending provision for European emerging real estate investment markets in 2014. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs lead-lag correlations and Grainger causality to examine inter and intra relationships across three emerging European real estate markets, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over the period 2006-2014. Optimal portfolio analysis is undertaken to explore the role of emerging real estate markets within the confines of a multi-asset investment portfolio as well as a Pan-European real estate investment portfolio. Findings – The findings demonstrate the opportunities afforded by the European emerging real estate markets in terms of both performance enhancement and risk diversification. Significantly, the findings highlight the lack of “uniformity” across the European emerging markets in terms of their investment potential, with Grainger causality confirming that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are not endogenous functions of one-another’s performance. Practical implications – This paper makes a considered contribution to the analytical interpretation of European emerging property market performance across the real estate cycle. The research demonstrates that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland exhibit specific investment characteristics which differentiate them from the more developed real estate markets across Europe. Indeed emerging markets have the propensity to serve as both a risk diversifier as well as performance enhancer within the confines of a pan-European real estate investment portfolio. However, as the research clearly articulates, intricate understanding of the attributes afforded by the different emerging markets as well as the divergence in sectoral dynamics/performance is integral to portfolio allocation strategies. Originality/value – Robust academic research on Europe’s emerging real estate markets has been hampered by deficiencies in data provision. This study makes an innovative and timely contribution to redressing the research vacuum through delineated examination of the performance dynamics of three markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, across the real estate cycle. The role and function of emerging markets is depicted within the confines of a Pan-European direct real estate investment portfolio at the all property level and in terms of sectoral specific allocations comprising retail, office and industrial. The explicit added value of the paper is the propensity to bench-mark the performance of emerging markets real estate markets on a like-for-like basis with developed real estate markets across Europe facilitating the exploration of the role and function of emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment context.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108
Author(s):  
Ko Wang ◽  
◽  
Yuqing Zhou ◽  
Su Han Chan ◽  
K. W. Chau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Rational Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

A longitudinal study of the impact of the Sydney Olympics on real estate markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang (Steven) Lu ◽  
Yupin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games on the residential real estate markets of the host city during the bidding, pre-Olympic and post-Olympic periods. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a difference-in-differences model to analyze the transaction prices for all properties in New South Wales, Australia for the period from 1980 to 2007. Findings – The paper finds that the impact on real estate markets varies across different suburbs in the host city and over time. The real estate markets of host suburbs experience substantially higher growth during the bidding and pre-Olympic periods but not during the post-Olympic period. However, the property prices in non-host suburbs in the host city increase at a higher rate during the pre- and post-Olympic periods but not during the bidding period. Originality/value – This study offers insights into the long-term impact of the Olympic Games on host suburbs and non-host suburbs in the host city during different periods by analyzing a large longitudinal data set over a period of 27 years.

Glocal real estate market: evidence from European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoslaw Wisniewski ◽  
Justyna Brzezicka
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Characteristic Features

Purpose This paper aims to analyse globalisation, localisation and glocalisation on the real estate market and define the characteristic features of a glocal real estate market (GREM). The GREM involves real estate properties and real estate products, as well as linking the local and global dimensions of real estate market. Further aims of the study were to provide a methodology for developing the glocal real estate market index (GREMI), and compare selected European markets by analysing their glocalisation potential. Design/methodology/approach A novel method of identifying and assessing the GREM was prepared in the work. The methodology provides tools for calculating the GREMI. This is an index based on a few dozen variables from various thematic scopes, describing the glocalisation potential of a selected market, calibrated to a range <0, 1>. GREMI values were calculated for 12 countries, which accessed European Union (EU) in 2004. The sample covers period from 2004 to 2017. Findings The study shows that the GREMI continues to increase in all countries over time and the results are becoming synchronised. Romania is a country with the highest number of minimum GREMI values in all years (2004–2017). The highest values of the GREMI were determined in Estonia over the period of nine years (2004–2006, 2008 and 2013–2017). Research limitations/implications The prepared index may be applied to analyse different real estate markets, though the necessity to select an identical set of variables for analysis to allow for comparing between markets is a limitation for applying the method. The actual selection of variables is also a study limitation, which was of an opening nature to research in this scope and may be disputable. Originality/value This paper provides the original methodology of the GREMI index for countries joining the EU from 2004 onwards.

Integration between real estate and stock markets: new evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Shoaib Ali
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between real estate and stock market of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The data of two real estate indices (house price index and plot price index) are taken for the Pakistan and its four big cities, i.e. Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. It estimates the integration between series by applying the Johansen cointegration test. Moreover, the vector error correction model is applied to examine the short and long-run causal relationships between series. Findings The findings show that the real estate markets are cointegrated with the stock market. They imply that the real estate and stock markets are good substitutes in investment allocation, but investors cannot get the benefit of diversification by making a portfolio of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan. Moreover, the long-run causality is observed from majority house markets to the stock market, whereas short-run causality is evident from majority plot markets to the stock market. Hence, the real estate market leads the stock market in the short run and long run, suggesting the credit-price effect in the majority of real estate markets in Pakistan. These causality results are helpful for investors in the forecasting of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the study is the lower number of observations (107), because house and land prices are only available in monthly frequency from January 2011 in Pakistan. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no researcher has investigated the real estate and stock market nexus in Pakistan. Therefore, this study focuses on examining the relationship between the real estate and stock market of Pakistan. The link between real estate and stock markets will provide useful insights to the portfolio managers, real estate companies, property agents, stockbrokers and investors.

Value-relevance of reported changes in fair values and measurement-related fair value disclosures: evidence from the Australian real estate industry

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinprapa Sangchan ◽  
Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan ◽  
Ahsan Habib
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Reporting Standards

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the value-relevance of changes in fair values of investment property reported under International Accounting Standards (IAS) 40 and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13.Design/methodology/approachMultivariate regression models are used to regress cumulative market-adjusted stock returns of real estate firms on changes in fair values, along with control variables and corporate governance variables, in order to examine the research question.FindingsUsing hand-collected data from the Australian Real Estate Industry (AREI), the authors find that changes in fair values of investment property are value-relevant for equity investors. The authors further find that using unobservable inputs in an active market (Level 3 inputs) does not diminish the information content of fair values. The authors document that properties valued exclusively by directors have a significantly reduced value-relevance, whereas property valuations made collectively by both directors and independent valuers have superior value-relevance, possibly owing to the combination of inside knowledge and externally imposed monitoring. Collectively, the findings suggest that in the real estate industry, where unobservable inputs are commonly used to determine fair values of properties, the fair values determined subjectively are perceived to be sufficiently informative and relevant.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' findings have important implications for accounting standard-setters in considering whether an external valuation should be required and whether the extensive measurement-related fair value disclosure requirements are useful.Originality/valueThe study extends previous archival evidence and complements prior commentaries on experimental and analytical work in the Australian regulatory environment.

scholarly journals Trust in a viable real estate economy with disruption and blockchain

Facilities ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Veuger
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The real estate world finds itself at a tipping point of a transition: a dramatic and irreversible shift in (real estate) systems in society. This paper is a State of the art of Disruption, Blockchain and Real Estate in the Netherlands and international. Design/methodology/approach The following questions were asked to all those involved: What do you think is the essence of Blockchain for real estate? What is the most current situation with respect to Blockchain and real estate from your perspective? Which publications are important from your perspective? What do you expect with respect to the impact of Blockchain on real estate for (social) real estate? What are questions for the future for real estate and Blockchain? In addition, interviews, exploratory conversations and correspondence took place, and the content was peer reviewed. Findings Changes in value concepts affect the valuation of real estate and the thinking about it. The orientation of changing users and owners of real estate affects innovativeness, values and flexibility in managing that property. Orientation on disruption must be seen as proof that the real estate world is able to actually innovate the accumulated assets and consolidate this. The financial and real estate markets are markets that exaggerate through irrational behaviour. Fear of “eat or be eaten” determines people’s behaviour. Financial and thus real estate markets are always unstable and must always be regulated by people and organizations. Research limitations/implications The question that remains is whether it is important to look at disruptive innovations in existing markets or newcomers in the real estate market and Blockchain. The question is whether Blockchain is only a technological disruption, or a real game changer, and whether the entire value chain of the real estate market will embrace it. No two disruptions are the same. Trust in Blockchain is a prerequisite for guiding the predictable form of that disruption where start-up companies use new technology to offer cheaper and inferior alternatives to real estate in the market. You could also talk about anti-fragile value: “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile” (Taleb, 2012), in other words: attention to disruption and Blockchain creates a viable real estate economy. Practical implications The true meaning of the Blockchain technology for real estate still needs to be investigated. The author is still curious to understand and clarify the value of Blockchain for real estate processes. Doubt continues to exist and is therefore a feeding ground for further research, because we do not know what we have not seen. Social implications Looking at the impact of Blockchain on real estate, a number of conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the relationship between Blockchain and real estate has not yet been proven in practice. It is expected to develop further in the form of registering transaction processes and the DNA passport of a real estate object. Secondly, completeness and transparency are the basic ingredients for trust in the system. Third, real estate wants to remain viable. For this reason, taking the offense is necessary for real estate and management to connect with social demand. Behaviour also leads to new earnings models of the social and economic spin-off of disruptive real estate. If the Dutch real estate sector embraces Blockchain and is able to realize innovations, there are opportunities for real estate entrepreneurs to exploit the disruptive character to provide those new services. Originality/value The way in which disruption, Blockchain and real estate will develop in the coming years are not the only obvious characteristics of a particular era but also its social impact and user behaviour. This also applies to how this real estate transition can best be tracked, guided and utilized in society at the international, national and regional level. Disruptive organizations clearly respond to the viability of the (built) environment and therefore determine competitive strength. This affects the current and future valuation of real estate.

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