scholarly journals A INÉRCIA DA TAXA DE JUROS NA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA

2004 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando De Holanda Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Smoothing Parameter ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Bank Behavior ◽  
Inflation Inertia

Um fato estilizado no comportamento dos bancos centrais consiste na suavização da taxa de juros, na qual o reajuste da taxa de juros depende de sua própria história recente. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as condições que o parâmetro de suavização tem de satisfazer a regra de política monetária estável. A análise é feita em dois modelos, num existe inércia da taxa de inflação e no outro a taxa de inflação pode mudar instantaneamente de valor. Abstract A stylized fact of central bank behavior is interest rate smoothing. This paper takes this fact as given and analyses the conditions that the smoothing parameter of the monetary policy rule has to attend for the model to be stable. This analysis is done in two models, one with inflation inertia and the other one with inflation rate as a jump variable.

Monetary-Policy Rule as a Bridge: Predicting Inflation without Predictive Regressions

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 2559-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Hua ◽  
Liuren Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Predictive Regressions ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Out Of Sample

A major issue with predicting inflation rates using predictive regressions is that estimation errors can overwhelm the information content. This article proposes a new approach that uses a monetary-policy rule as a bridge between inflation rates and short-term interest rates and relies on the forward-interest-rate curve to predict future interest-rate movements. The 2-step procedure estimates the predictive relation not through a predictive regression but far more accurately through the contemporaneous monetary-policy linkage. Historical analysis shows that the approach outperforms random walk out of sample by 30%–50% over horizons from 1 to 5 years.

scholarly journals The Economics of Inflation, Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rule, and Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Pakistan

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 215-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ather Maqsood Ahmed ◽  
Wasim Shahid Malik
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Price Hike ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Reaction Function

The objective of this study is to estimate a monetary policy reaction function for Pakistan. To do this, we use data for the period 1992Q4–2010Q2. Our results show that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in the inflation rate and economic activity in a manner that is consistent with the Taylor (1993) rule, and with the explicit objective of interest rate smoothing and exchange rate management. This policy has remained consistent for most of the sample period, except for the last two years, during which a price hike and the massive depreciation of domestic currency led to a significant change in the parameters of the policy reaction function. We also find evidence of nonlinearity in the reaction function as the response to an inflation rate above 6.4 percent is found to be more aggressive than that in low inflationary episodes.

scholarly journals The bank lending channel and monetary policy rules for Eurozone banks: further extensions

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Stephen M. Miller ◽  
Effrosyni Alevizopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Loan Supply

AbstractThe monetary authorities affect macroeconomic activity through various channels of influence. This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how central bank actions affect the loan supply through its main indicator of policy, the real short-term interest rate. This paper employs the endogenously determined target interest rate, emanating from the European Central Bank’s monetary policy rule, to examine the operation of the bank lending channel. Furthermore, it examines whether different bank-specific characteristics affect how Eurozone banks react to monetary shocks. That is, do sounder banks react more to the monetary policy rule than less-sound banks? The paper finds evidence of an active and statistically and economically significant bank lending channel for the Eurozone between 2000 and 2009.

scholarly journals Monetary policy rule for Poland – results for various specifactions

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Baranowski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
The Interest Rate

The aim of the paper is to analyse monetary policy rules for Poland. We estimate models based on the proposition of Taylor (1993), augmented with interest rate smoothing. We deal with the case of instantaneous as well as forward-looking relationship between interest rate and inflation. In the latter case, the proposition of data-rich reaction function (Bernanke and Boivin, 2003) was also considered. The evidence show that Polish monetary authority reaction to inflation is strong, contrary to the output gap. In addition, we found strong interest smoothing, which implies time-distributed response of the interest rate.

scholarly journals The Effect of Interest Rate on The Volume of Cash and Pledge Credit in Iraq (2004-2016)

2021 ◽  
pp. 60-70
Author(s):  
هيثم الجنابي ◽  
نجوى كاظم
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Standard Analysis ◽  
Cubic Model ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Oil Revenues

The interest price is one of the important tools of monetary policy to affect the financial and economic variables, including cash and pledge credit, with the aim of activating the economic movement in the country. The Central Bank followed a policy of reducing the base interest price until it reached 4.33% in 2016, but this decrease didn't lead to the energizing of cash and pledging credit in a way that leads to the productive sector's advancement, as the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy and oil revenues have acquired a large proportion of the domestic income of Iraq. Also, individuals hoarding their money away from the banking system have made the interest price lose its role in influencing at the credit extant. The research aims to measure the effect of basic interest price changes on the extant of cash and credit through descriptive and standard analysis for the period (2004-2016). The research is based on the hypothesis that weakness of the correlation and significant impact between interest prices and the extant of cash and pledge credit led to weakness the credit of both types in stimulating investment. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a weak relationship and there is no statistically significant effect of the independent variable (interest price) on the dependent variable (cash and pledge credit) and there is an inverse relationship between them, which is consistent with economic theory. The research concluded with a set of recommendations, the most important of which is the activation of the interest price role as one of the monetary policy tools to influence cash and pledge credit, and commercial banks must coordinate and cooperate with the Central Bank of Iraq to study and determine the interest price and review interest rates periodically and continuously. Keywords : Interest rate, cash credit, pledge credit, cash interest rate, real interest rate, inflation rate, linear model and cubic model

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document