Monetary-Policy Rule as a Bridge: Predicting Inflation without Predictive Regressions

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 2559-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Hua ◽  
Liuren Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Predictive Regressions ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Out Of Sample

A major issue with predicting inflation rates using predictive regressions is that estimation errors can overwhelm the information content. This article proposes a new approach that uses a monetary-policy rule as a bridge between inflation rates and short-term interest rates and relies on the forward-interest-rate curve to predict future interest-rate movements. The 2-step procedure estimates the predictive relation not through a predictive regression but far more accurately through the contemporaneous monetary-policy linkage. Historical analysis shows that the approach outperforms random walk out of sample by 30%–50% over horizons from 1 to 5 years.

scholarly journals Brexit’s Protectionist Policy and Implications for the British Pound

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Lara Joy Dixon ◽  
Hoje Jo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Purchase Power Parity ◽  
Spot Rate ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Inflation Rates

In this paper, we examine the association among the macroeconomic variables - interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment, and the expected spot rate of the British pound with respect to the Euro around the announcement of “Brexit”, June 2016, using the two international parity relationships, Purchase Power Parity (PPP) and International Fisher effect (IFE). We use the two international parity relationships to examine the significance of change in daily interest rates and monthly inflation rates on the change in actual daily spot rates. In addition, we postulate that the protectionist nature of Brexit policy has contributed to lowering U.K. unemployment and prompted wage growth, resulting in higher inflation rates. Our analysis, examining both the magnitude and directional deviation of the actual spot rate compared to the spot rate using the two parity relations, indicate that spot rates predicted based on the PPP and the IFE relations suggest the weakening of the British pound after the Brexit announcement. Furthermore, we find that U.K. unemployment has reduced due to the expanded monetary policy, consistent with the prediction of the Phillip’s curve.

scholarly journals Redefining monetary policy rules: A threshold approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252316
Author(s):  
Carmen Diaz-Roldan ◽  
María A. Prats ◽  
Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, we try to analyse the extent to which a redefinition of the monetary policy rule would help to avoid the zero-lower bound, as well as to explore the conditions needed to avoid that constraint. To that aim, we estimate the threshold values of the key variables of the policy rule: the inflation gap and the output gap. The threshold model allows us to know which are the turning points from which the relationship between the key variables and the interest rate revert. In the Eurozone countries, we have found that the inflation gap always contributes to increasing the nominal interest rate. On the contrary, the output gap works differently when it reaches values above or below the threshold value, which would favour the reduction of the interest rates towards the zero level.

scholarly journals The bank lending channel and monetary policy rules for Eurozone banks: further extensions

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Stephen M. Miller ◽  
Effrosyni Alevizopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Loan Supply

AbstractThe monetary authorities affect macroeconomic activity through various channels of influence. This paper examines the bank lending channel, which considers how central bank actions affect the loan supply through its main indicator of policy, the real short-term interest rate. This paper employs the endogenously determined target interest rate, emanating from the European Central Bank’s monetary policy rule, to examine the operation of the bank lending channel. Furthermore, it examines whether different bank-specific characteristics affect how Eurozone banks react to monetary shocks. That is, do sounder banks react more to the monetary policy rule than less-sound banks? The paper finds evidence of an active and statistically and economically significant bank lending channel for the Eurozone between 2000 and 2009.

scholarly journals A INÉRCIA DA TAXA DE JUROS NA POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA

2004 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando De Holanda Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Smoothing Parameter ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Bank Behavior ◽  
Inflation Inertia

Um fato estilizado no comportamento dos bancos centrais consiste na suavização da taxa de juros, na qual o reajuste da taxa de juros depende de sua própria história recente. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as condições que o parâmetro de suavização tem de satisfazer a regra de política monetária estável. A análise é feita em dois modelos, num existe inércia da taxa de inflação e no outro a taxa de inflação pode mudar instantaneamente de valor. Abstract A stylized fact of central bank behavior is interest rate smoothing. This paper takes this fact as given and analyses the conditions that the smoothing parameter of the monetary policy rule has to attend for the model to be stable. This analysis is done in two models, one with inflation inertia and the other one with inflation rate as a jump variable.

scholarly journals Monetary policy rule for Poland – results for various specifactions

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Baranowski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
The Interest Rate

The aim of the paper is to analyse monetary policy rules for Poland. We estimate models based on the proposition of Taylor (1993), augmented with interest rate smoothing. We deal with the case of instantaneous as well as forward-looking relationship between interest rate and inflation. In the latter case, the proposition of data-rich reaction function (Bernanke and Boivin, 2003) was also considered. The evidence show that Polish monetary authority reaction to inflation is strong, contrary to the output gap. In addition, we found strong interest smoothing, which implies time-distributed response of the interest rate.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

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