scholarly journals Probable maximum precipitation for the catchment of Koyna dam

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-216
Author(s):  
P. R. RAKHECHA ◽  
A. K. A. K. KULKARNI A. K. KULKARNI ◽  
B. N. MANDAL ◽  
R. B. SANGAM ◽  
N. R. DESHPANDE
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation

Estimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for different durations were made for the catchment above Koyna dam on the Koyna river. The catchment spans an area of          892 km2 and the PMP estimates were made for a range of durations of 1 to 3 days. The PMP estimates for Koyna dam were found to be 48, 87 and 117 cm by the physical method and 54, 89 and 124 cm by statistical method for 1, 2 and 3 day respectively. These estimates can be used to check the existing spillway design flood of Koyna dam.

Évaluation des méthodes utilisées pour l'estimation de la crue maximale probable en régions nordiques

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Debs ◽  
D Sparks ◽  
J Rousselle ◽  
S Birikundavyi
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Response ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Among all existing methods for estimating extreme floods, the probable maximum flood method is the safest, since it is a flood with a probability of excedance that is theoretically zero. In the early 1970s, this flood was calculated as the combination of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and the probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA). In the 1990s, this combination has been considered to be highly improbable. Experts advise against combining two maximized events and, instead, recommend combining one maximized event with a relatively typical extreme event. This article presents a sensitivity analysis on the return period to be used for the typical extreme event to be combined with the maximized event to obtain a "more realistic" PMF. To achieve this, all the steps of a PMF study were reviewed and applied to the Sainte-Marguerite watershed, i.e., calibration and (or) validation of SSARR model, estimation of the PMP, the PMSA, and the temperature sequence. Different flood scenarios have been simulated including accumulated snowfall corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years, followed by PMP and PMSA, followed by precipitation corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years. It has been noticed that the use of a return period of 50, 100, or 500 years, to represent the unmaximized extreme event, has little effect on the hydrologic response of the basin. Based on the results of this work the use of a return period of 100 years is recommended.Key words: probable maximum flood, probable maximum precipitation, probable maximum snow accumulation, design flood, SSARR model.

scholarly journals Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation for Linau River Basin in Sarawak

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
M. Hussain ◽  
S. Nadya ◽  
F.J. Chia
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

 The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year. PMP is very important to be considered for the design of river regulating structures i.e Dams and Barrages to overcome any possible chance of overtopping failure as well as for public safety and hazards downstream of any of these structures. Especially if these structures located in the upstream of the of the populated town or city than the failure could damage severely such areas. As such the PMP convention is always a requirement as primary design dam/reservoir criteria when public safety is of concern. The PMP is used to derive Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which further used in hydraulic modeling to check the impact assessments for such occasions. This paper focuses on estimation of PMP for Linau River Basin in Sarawak using statistical method proposed by World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is described in its operational manual. Long Lidam and Long Laku are located in Linau River Basin but Long Laku has long discontinuity in the data set thus the rainfall series at Long Lidam is further used for PMP estimation. The missing data was in-filled using Belaga rain gauge station as Long Lidam rainfall has good correlation with Belaga rainfall data. Hershfield statistical method has been adopted to estimate the 24-hour duration PMP. The Probable Maximum Precipitation for 24-hour duration storm is estimated as 691 mm for the Linau River Basin.

scholarly journals Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation in a Humid Climate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Afzali Gorouh ◽  
Bahram Bakhtiari ◽  
Kourosh Qaderi
Keyword(s):  
Physical Method ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Java Programming ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Water Resources Projects ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Convergence Model

Abstract. Due to the importance of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for designing and planning hydraulic structures, the aim of this study is the estimation of 24-hour PMP (PMP24) by using the statistical and physical methods in a humid climate of Qareh-Su Basin which is located in the northern part of Iran. For statistical estimate of PMP, the equations of empirical curves of Hershfield method were extracted. Then the standard and revised approaches of Hershfield method were written in JAVA programming language, as a user friendly and multi-platform application called the PMP Calculator. Convergence model was considered to calculate PMP by physical method. The depth–area–duration (DAD) curves were extracted to estimate PMP24 using physical method and then PMP24 was estimated for each storm. The results showed that for the standard and revised approaches, Km was found to be varied the range of 17–18.0 and 2.2–5.3, respectively. The maximum values of PMP24 for the first approach was obtained 447.7 mm and for second approach was 200.7 mm. Using the physical method, PMP24 was 143.1 mm. The results of this study will be helpful for planning, designing, and management of hydraulic structures and water resources projects in the study area.

scholarly journals Probable Maximum Precipitation Comparison using Hershfield’s Statistical Method and Hydro-Meteorological Method for Sungai Perak Hydroelectric Scheme

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.35) ◽  
pp. 603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Razali J ◽  
Sidek L.M ◽  
Rashid M.A ◽  
Hussein A ◽  
M. Marufuzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Dam Overtopping ◽  
Downstream Area

One of the potential risks attributed to the occurrence of dam overtopping and dam wall failure due to the inadequacy of the spillway capacities is the loss of life and property damages in the downstream area. The current practices in most countries in minimizing these risks are by analyzing the extreme precipitation that leads to extreme flood. Extreme precipitation is best known as Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and this estimation is useful in determining Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in reviewing the spillway adequacy of dam structures. This paper presented PMP estimations using two approaches; physical method (Hydro-meteorological Method) and statistical approach (Hershfield’s Method) at the Sungai Perak Hydroelectric Scheme that consists of four cascading dams namely Temengor dam, Bersia dam, Kenering dam and Chenderoh dam. The highest PMP estimates from these two methods will be chosen as the rainfall input to establish PMF hydrographs. Estimations using Hydro-meteorological generalized map produces 40-50% higher estimates compared to Hersfield’s method with the PMP values of 550mm (1hours), 600mm (3hours), 800mm (6hours), 820mm (12hours), 1300mm (24hour) and 1600mm (72 hours). Accepting the Hydro-meteorological Method to determine PMF values for this hydroelectric scheme may be the best course since the estimations of the extreme precipitations using this method are the highest.

scholarly journals Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for tropical catchment

2018 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 03012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Sammen ◽  
Thamer Mohamed ◽  
Abd Alhalim Ghazali ◽  
Lariyah Sideq ◽  
Azlan Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Storm Duration ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum precipitation depth for specific region or station within a certain time. The main purpose of PMP estimation is calculate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The PMF is considered necessary for design and manage the hydraulic structures. PMP can be estimate using two methods, either using a physical method or by using statistical method. In this study, statistical approach was used to estimate the PMP for Temengor catchment in Perak state, Malaysia. Extreme value type-1 distribution (EV1) is adopted to estimate the extreme rainfall and Hershfeid method was used to estimate PMP value. Also, intensity duration curve (IDC) was derived for 1, 2 and 3 days storm duration with return period 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 years. The results showed that the values of PMP for 1000 return period are 222.361mm, 311.847mm and 348.307mm for 1, 2 and 3 days respectively.

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