scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Karachi Stock Market Returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javed Pervaiz ◽  
Junaid Masih ◽  
Teng Jian-Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Index Value ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated The study examines the impact of selected macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, interest rate) on Karachi stock market returns. Mainly secondary data used in the research process. The study consists of data for the period of 10 years and 5 months starting from January 2007 till May 2017. For this purpose, monthly data of KSE-100 index has been observed for the period January 2007 to May 2017. The market returns have been calculated through the opening and closing index value of each month. The inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate has been taken as independent variables. Hypotheses have been tested to find out whether there exists a significant relationship between the Stock market return and macroeconomic variables or not. To test this hypothesis, Regression analysis used and results are calculated through Stata software.

scholarly journals Nexus between Stock Market Returns and Economic Variables: Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanitha Chawla ◽  
Shweta .
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on the Indian stock market. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are interest rate, exchange rate, index of industrial production (IIP) and gold price. BSE Sensex is used as proxy for Indian stock market. We have used the monthly data for all the variables from January 2001 to December 2016. Regression analysis and Granger Causality test is used to establish the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables. The results show significant impact of only exchange rate on stock returns. All the other variables have shown insignificant impact on the stock market returns. The results of Granger causality test show unidirectional relationship between exchange rate and stock prices and bi-directional relation between IIP and SENSEX.

Effects of Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Inflation on Stock Market Returns Volatility in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 38-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izunobi Anthony Okechukwu ◽  
Nzotta Samuel Mbadike ◽  
Ugwuanyim Geoffrey ◽  
Benedict Anayochukwu Ozurumba
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
The Impact

This study employed GARCH (1.1) techniques to evaluate the existence of high stock market returns volatility, and the impact of the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation on stock market returns in Nigeria, using monthly series data from 1995 – 2014. Excessive volatility hinders the stock market from playing its role of Mobilizing, financial resources from surplus units to deficit units and may cause a financial crisis. The research finding shows that interest rate has a negative relationship with stock market returns, while the inflation rate and exchange rate have a positive relationship with stock market returns. The conclusion therefore is, there is high and persistent volatility in the Nigerian stock market returns. Exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation significantly impact stock market return volatility in Nigeria. The study recommends that regulatory authorities should take proactive steps to minimize stock market return in order to restore confidence in the market.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Sunday Mlanga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

Stock market is an essential part of a nation’s economy and requires adequate evaluation of all factors that militate against its performance. This study investigates the role of macroeconomic variables in determining the stock market performance in Nigeria using annual time series data covering a period from 2009 to 2018. These data have been sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators, International Monetary Fund and CBN Statistical Bulletin. The results from the regression analysis indicate that exchange rate and interest rate do not have significant impact on share price index while inflation rate exerts a significant negative influence on share price index. On the contrary and in line with the concept of GDP and stock market performance, GDP significantly and positively impacts on share price index. The study among others suggests that the growth of the economy should be maintained to keep stock market flourishing while macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate and exchange rate should be appropriately regulated by the relevant authorities to curtail all negative influences on stock market performance.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Sri Lanka

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 206
Author(s):  
Saseela Balagobei
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return

The stock market is one of the most energetic sectors that play an important role in contributing to the wealth of the economy. It plays a crucial role in the economic growth and development of an economy which would benefit industries, trade and commerce as a whole. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market returns in Sri Lanka. Dependent variable of this study is stock market return measured by All Share Price Index (ASPI) and All Share Total Return Index (ASTRI) and independent variables are macroeconomic variables, such as Interest Rate (IR), Inflation Rate (INF), Exchange Rate (ER), Factory Industry Production Index (FIPI) and money supply (MS).  The study targets all the companies listed and active in Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) from 2006 to 2015. For analysis, secondary data was collected from annual reports of Central bank of Sri Lanka, Colombo Stock Exchange, Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Census and Statistics. The results of the study reveal that the stock market returns is influenced by macroeconomic variables except money supply in Sri Lanka. Interest rate and factory industry production have negative influence on stock market return in Colombo Stock exchange while inflation rate and exchange rate have positive influence on stock market return. The findings of the study may be useful to public and economy especially stock market investors to focus the macroeconomic variables for making their effective decisions in order to enhance their stock market returns.

scholarly journals The The Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Markets Dynamics in Tunisia and Turkey: An Artificial Neural Network Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Nesrine Mechri ◽  
Christian De Peretti ◽  
Salah BEN HAMAD
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Impact

The present research provides an overview of links between exchange rate volatility and the dynamics of stock market returns in order to identify the influence of several macroeconomic variables on the volatility of stock markets, useful for political decision makers as well as investors to better control the portfolio risk level. More precisely, this research aims to identify the impact of exchange rate volatility on the fluctuations of stock market returns, considering two countries that belong to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) zone: Tunisia and Turkey. Previous works in the literature used very specified and short periods of study, many important variables were neglected, and most of the earlier research was concentrated on the developed countries. In this research, we integrate several control variables of stock market returns that have not been simultaneously studied before. In addition, we spread out our research period up to 15 years including many events and dynamics. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and multiple regression models are first employed. Then, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used and compared with the results of the multiple regression. Hence, the results show that for both Tunisia and Turkey, exchange rate volatility has a significant effect on stock market fluctuations.

scholarly journals Economic Interactions among Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables with Mediating Role of Gold Prices Volatilities: An Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Rukhsana Rasheed ◽  
Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq ◽  
Rabia Anwar ◽  
Mehwish Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

In all emerging economies, one of the most challenging issues for investors is the multifaceted inter-relationship between volatility of gold prices and stock market index. During the COVID-19 sub-periods, gold has shown a strong hedging behavior against stock market performance. The main objective of this study was to quantify the long-run relationship among multiple independent macroeconomic variables (predictors) on stock market index (response variable) using the volatilities of gold prices as a mediator factor. This study applied the descriptive statistics, correlation, t-test and OLS multiple regression Model. The specific data comprised of period 2011-2020 regarding the fluctuations in gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and performance of stock market index has been utilized. The statistical outputs of models showed that exchange rate (Dollar to PKR) was positively affecting the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-100 Index, whereas inflation rate and interest rate were negatively affecting the overall performance of KSE100 index. The findings of this study suggested that to achieve better performance of stock market, relatively low interest rate and inflation rate contribute a significant role. However, to increase the generalization capabilities of this study the impact of mentioned macroeconomic variables in other sectors like industrial production, oil & gas and energy sectors with wider time span can be more helpful.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 6-18
Author(s):  
Erhan Cankal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks

Financial sector is considered to be important in signaling about economic development. It is a common belief that stock market returns contain significant information on economic well-being and act as a good source of market indicator in a country. This common belief is tested for a number of countries using various methods in literature. Whether stock market returns are affected by changes in primary macroeconomic variables have been tested for different time periods in many countries. The findings of the previous studies proved that the results may vary depending on country specific characteristics. The directions and magnitudes of the examined relationships seemed to be different for various economies. However, the mainstream of the findings is consistent with theoretical expectations. This study attempts to bring a light to the relationship between stock market returns and basic macroeconomic variables using monthly data between 2003 and 2015 and employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for the Turkish economy. Turkey is considered as one of the most vulnerable five countries whose stock prices are most responsive to, exchange rate shocks. This study concludes that the stock prices in Turkey responsive to the shocks in exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation in order. The results of the analyses are in accordance with theoretical expectations as well as with the findings of the vast majority in the literature.

The Impact of Treasury Bill Rate and Interest Rate On The Stock Market Returns: Case Of Ghana Stock Exchange

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustine  Addo ◽  
Fidelis Sunzuoye
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ghana Stock Exchange ◽  
The Impact

Several studies have suggested that macroeconomic variables affect Stock market returns using Treasury bill rate as a measure of interest rate. The study examines the joint impact of  interest rates and Treasury bill rate on  stock market returns on Ghana Stock Exchange over the period between January 1995 and December 2011. Using Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Model and Vector Error  Correction Model the study establish that there is cointegration between Interest rate, Treasury bill rate and stock market returns indicating long run relationship. On the basis of the Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS) carried out by Eviews 7 program, the results show that Treasury bill rate and interest rate both have a negative relationship with stock market returns but  are not  significant. These results lend support to the idea that interest rate and Treasury bill rate has both  negative  relationship  but  weak predictive  power on stock market returns independently. The study conclude that interest rate and Treasury bill rate jointly impact on stock market returns in the long run. Understanding the effects of both  Treasury bill rate and interest rate dynamics on stock market returns will help investors, fund  and portfolio managers and firms make better investment decisions.

Does Parasocial Breakup Affect the Stock Market Returns?

2019 ◽  
pp. 70-87
Author(s):  
İbrahim Bozkurt ◽  
Mercan Hatipoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Mood ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Robust Evidence

This chapter analyzes the impact of parasocial breakup on the stock returns in Borsa Istanbul as an emerging stock market. In this study, 129 Turkish TV series finales, broadcast between 2005 and 2015, are employed as a negative mood proxy. In line with the purpose of this chapter, GARCH-M model is used to obtain a more efficient parameter and alternative mood proxy dummies and other macroeconomic variables are incorporated into the analyses to examine the robustness of the effect of parasocial breakup on stock market returns. The analysis presents robust evidence that the negative mood increases the stock market returns. It also found that the effect of parasocial breakup on returns depends on the types of TV series and the channels they are broadcast on.

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