Potential wood supply losses to spruce budworm in New Brunswick estimated using the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System

2002 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 739-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
D A MacLean ◽  
K P Beaton ◽  
K B Porter ◽  
W E MacKinnon ◽  
M G Budd
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Support System ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Timber Harvesting ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Forest Protection

The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) was used to estimate potential volume losses to a future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak in New Brunswick. The SBW DSS was implemented separately on each of the ten Crown Timber Licenses, using data from forest industry management plan timber yields and harvest schedules; values were then compiled for all of New Brunswick. Potential volume losses on privately owned forest (industrial freehold and private woodlots) were estimated by matching stand types with those for Crown land. Total potential volume losses of 83 million and 195 million m3 of spruce–fir (Picea spp. – Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) were predicted for "normal" and "severe" budworm outbreak scenarios, defined based on past outbreaks in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and assumed to start in 2000. Simulated timber supply losses were 42 million, 40 mil-lion, and 1 million m3 on Crown, freehold, and federal land, respectively, under a normal outbreak scenario, versus 99 million, 92 million, and 3 million m3 under a severe outbreak scenario. On Crown land, 33% of the predicted loss in a severe outbreak occurred in stands scheduled for harvest over the next 30 years, 26% occurred in stands not scheduled for harvest for at least 30 years, and 41% was in the non-timber harvesting landbase (11% in Old Softwood Forest Habitat, 12% in Deer Wintering Areas, 14% in riparian buffers, and 3% in inaccessible areas). Harvest levels 11–20 years in the future were very sensitive to reduction in yields caused by defoliation. Under a severe outbreak scenario, if 40% of the landbase was not protected for 2, 5, or 8 years to limit defoliation (simulating spraying the insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis, B.t.), 2007–2011 harvest level reductions of 4.0, 6.0, and 8.4 million m3 , respectively, would be necessary. We conclude that the only way that planned harvest levels for New Brunswick can be maintained, under a future spruce budworm outbreak, is with effective targeted use of insecticides for forest protection. Key words: defoliation, growth reduction, mortality, protection planning

The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System: forest protection planning to sustain long-term wood supply

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 1742-1757 ◽  
Author(s):  
D A MacLean ◽  
T A Erdle ◽  
W E MacKinnon ◽  
K B Porter ◽  
K P Beaton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Planning System ◽  
System Component ◽  
Volume Loss ◽  
Forest Protection

The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) quantifies the marginal timber supply (m3/ha) benefits of protecting stands against spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) defoliation. It allows the user to quantify the volume benefit of protecting alternative areas and determine effects on forest development and annual allowable cut. Implementing the SBW DSS on a land base involves seven steps: (i) defining the base defoliation, or an explicit forecast of the defoliation level included in yield forecasts; (ii) compiling historical defoliation; (iii) defining base volume yields; (iv) obtaining the harvest schedule from the land base management plan; (v) building the stand impact matrix, which quantifies direct impacts of defoliation; (vi) building the forest impact matrix, which quantifies indirect impacts of defoliation on harvest schedules; and (vii) building the stand-history file, which contains all stand-level and defoliation data. These tasks are usually completed every 5 years. The remaining aspects of the planning methodology are implemented annually, including (i) recording the previous year's defoliation, (ii) estimating potential defoliation in the current year from budworm survey data, (iii) calculating volume loss or protection priority, (iv) generating budworm-caused volume loss maps, (v) digitizing potential spray blocks, and (vi) evaluating the protection program. Using ARC/INFO® and ArcView® geographic information system programs, the Protection Planning System component (PROPS) generates volume loss maps that can be used to help design and analyze costs and benefits of insecticide spray programs. Implementation of PROPS for the 450 000 ha Upper Miramichi Crown License in New Brunswick is described. Under "normal" and "severe" budworm outbreak scenarios, defined based on predictions of 1999–2008 defoliation, losses of 6.6 × 106 and 16.7 × 106 m3 of spruce (Picea sp.) – balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) volume were projected to occur on this land base.

scholarly journals Forest management strategies to reduce spruce budworm damage in the Fundy Model Forest

1996 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Timber Supply

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks cannot be prevented, but the amount of damage that occurs can be managed. Tree species, stand age, hardwood content, and drainage class, as well as the outbreak severity and length, determine the amount of tree mortality during budworm outbreaks. Silviculture and forest management can be used to reduce the incidence of the most damaged stand types across the landscape. The amount of defoliation in mixed balsam fir-hardwood stands is strongly negatively related to hardwood content, especially with hardwoods > 40%. The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (DSS) links models of stand and forest response to budworm outbreaks and inventory interpretation to a GIS, and can be used to evaluate effects of outbreaks and management on forest structure and timber supply. An example using the Spruce Budworm DSS for a portion of the Fundy Model Forest indicated that losses from a future budworm outbreak could be reduced 34% by directing harvesting and silviculture towards conversion of one-half of the most vulnerable stand types into low susceptibility or non-susceptible species. Key words: decision support system, vulnerability, silviculture, insect damage

scholarly journals Tools for Risk Management of Technical Facilities Operation

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-500
Author(s):  
Dana Prochazkova ◽  
Jan Prochazka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Present Knowledge ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Risk Management Plan ◽  
The Past

The article shows the results of research directed to detection of technical facilities accidents and failures sources at their operation. The research aim is to create the effective tools for management of risks so the coexistence of technical facilities with their vicinity would be ensured throughout their life cycles. The problems solution way is based on the simultaneously preferred concept, in which the safety is preferred over the reliability.  Respecting the present knowledge on technical facilities´ safety and the lessons learned from the past technical facilities accidents and  failures, the causes of which were connected with their operation, two tools are developed:  Decision Support System and Risk Management Plan that were reviewed by experts and tested in practice.

Windthrow and growth response following a spruce budworm inspired, variable retention harvest in New Brunswick, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 659-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Wilson ◽  
David A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Growth Release ◽  
Variable Retention ◽  
Variable Retention Harvest

Forest management regimes increasingly focus on the emulation of natural disturbance events, e.g., fire or insect outbreaks, to help increase ecosystem sustainability. We determined the residual stand response to a variable retention harvest inspired by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreaks in New Brunswick, Canada. Our objectives were to analyze the differences between surviving residual trees and those that succumbed to windthrow and to quantify growth release. The treatment was based on harvesting the estimated spruce budworm outbreak mortality, i.e., 90% of mature balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., 60% of mature spruce (Picea spp.), and no hardwoods. Windthrow increased with the proportion of trees harvested and averaged 52% over 7–9 years in these stands with high balsam fir – spruce content. One-third of 42 harvested plots sustained >30% windthrow, whereas 73% of 11 similar unharvested plots had <10% windthrow. Balsam fir had higher windthrow than spruce at 53% and 41%, respectively. Windthrown balsam fir trees had significantly larger diameters at breast height (DBH, 1.3 m), larger heights, and smaller crown ratios than surviving residual trees. Substantial growth release occurred, with DBH increment of residual trees 48%–64% greater than trees in unharvested plots. Balsam fir and intolerant hardwoods exhibited the largest growth response. We suggest that future spruce budworm inspired harvests in stands with high balsam fir – spruce content use two or three entries about 5 years apart to reduce windthrow.

Spruce budworm decision support system: lessons learned in development and implementation

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 293-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A MacLean ◽  
Kevin B Porter ◽  
Wayne E MacKinnon ◽  
Kathy P Beaton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Lessons Learned

Use of forest inventory and monitoring data in the spruce budworm decision support system

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A MacLean ◽  
Wayne E MacKinnon ◽  
Kevin B Porter ◽  
Kathy P Beaton ◽  
Gerry Cormier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Inventory And Monitoring

Re-examining wood supply in light of future spruce budworm outbreaks: A case study in New Brunswick

2013 ◽  
Vol 89 (01) ◽  
pp. 42-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.R. Hennigar ◽  
T.A. Erdle ◽  
J.J. Gullison ◽  
D.A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
Wood Supply ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Biological Insecticide ◽  
Salvage Harvesting

Forest protection (spraying of biological insecticide), salvage harvesting, and strategic re-planning are typical mitigation options to reduce wood supply impacts caused by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) defoliation. However, all such measures are expensive and difficult to implement, and decisions about if and to what extent such measures should be applied hinge on the magnitude of benefits and associated costs. We used an integrated forest estate pest-impact planning model to quantify harvest impacts for three plausible outbreak scenarios, and the effect of these typical mitigation strategies for 3.0 million ha in New Brunswick. Cumulative harvest reductions, relative to the no defoliation case, reached 18% and 25% by 2052 under moderate and severe defoliation patterns, respectively. We demonstrate that up to 30% to 50% of these projected reductions could be avoided through foliage protection treatments, depending on the outbreak scenario. Salvage and re-planning mitigated harvest losses by up to 20% in the short term (20 to 25 years), but had little benefit over the long run (40+ years). Even with aggressive implementation of all mitigation measures, significant harvest impacts (10% reduction from 2017 to 2042) were unavoidable, regardless of outbreak scenario.

scholarly journals Validation of Spruce Budworm Outbreak History Developed from Aerial Sketch Mapping of Defoliation in New Brunswick

2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 139-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Taylor ◽  
David A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Growth Reduction ◽  
Increment Core ◽  
Permanent Sample Plots ◽  
Ground Survey

Abstract Aerial sketch mapping (ASM) of annual defoliation provides a means to quantify spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreak histories, but accuracy is affected by factors such as navigation and weather conditions. We used ground-based defoliation estimates from 123 permanent sample plots (PSP) in New Brunswick and increment core growth data from a subset of PSPs, to validate ASM estimates of defoliation. From 1985 to 1993, 85% of 332 cases were correctly classified by aerial estimates as nil–light (0–30%) or moderate–severe (31–100%), with the proportion correct varying by measurement year, defoliation severity, and host species. Growth indices generated from 81 visually cross-dated and verified balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.) tree-ring series in 23 PSPs were significantly negatively correlated with aerial-derived cumulative defoliation for 87% of the PSPs, and correlation increased when aerial estimates were combined with ground survey data. We conclude that aerial surveys provide a reasonable estimate of defoliation history to estimate growth reduction.

scholarly journals Positive Results of an Early Intervention Strategy to Suppress a Spruce Budworm Outbreak after Five Years of Trials

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 448 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Peter Amirault ◽  
Luke Amos-Binks ◽  
Drew Carleton ◽  
Chris Hennigar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Intervention ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Treatment Programs ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Insecticide Treatment ◽  
Salvage Harvesting

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.; SBW) outbreaks are one of the dominant natural disturbances in North America, having killed balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and spruce (Picea sp.) trees over tens of millions of hectares. Responses to past SBW outbreaks have included the aerial application of insecticides to limit defoliation and keep trees alive, salvage harvesting of dead and dying trees, or doing nothing and accepting the resulting timber losses. We tested a new ‘early intervention strategy’ (EIS) focused on suppressing rising SBW populations before major defoliation occurs, from 2014 to 2018 in New Brunswick, Canada. The EIS approach included: (1) intensive monitoring of overwintering SBW to detect ‘hot spots’ of low but rising populations; (2) targeted insecticide treatment to prevent spread; and (3) proactive public communications and engagement on project activities and results. This is the first attempt of area-wide (all areas within the jurisdiction of the province of New Brunswick) management of a native forest insect population. The project was conducted by a consortium of government, forest industry, researchers, and other partners. We developed a treatment priority and blocking model to optimize planning and efficacy of EIS SBW insecticide treatment programs. Following 5 years of over 420,000 ha of EIS treatments of low but increasing SBW populations, second instar larvae (L2) SBW levels across northern New Brunswick were found to be considerably lower than populations in adjacent Québec. Treatments increased from 4500 ha in 2014, to 56,600 ha in 2016, and to 199,000 ha in 2018. SBW populations in blocks treated with Bacillus thuringiensis or tebufenozide insecticide were consistently reduced, and generally did not require treatment in the subsequent year. Areas requiring treatment increased up to 2018, but SBW L2 populations showed over 90% reductions in that year. Although this may be a temporary annual decline in SBW population increases, it is counter to continued increases in Québec. Following 5 years of tests, the EIS appears to be effective in reducing the SBW outbreak.

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