Re-examining wood supply in light of future spruce budworm outbreaks: A case study in New Brunswick

2013 ◽  
Vol 89 (01) ◽  
pp. 42-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.R. Hennigar ◽  
T.A. Erdle ◽  
J.J. Gullison ◽  
D.A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
Wood Supply ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Biological Insecticide ◽  
Salvage Harvesting

Forest protection (spraying of biological insecticide), salvage harvesting, and strategic re-planning are typical mitigation options to reduce wood supply impacts caused by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) defoliation. However, all such measures are expensive and difficult to implement, and decisions about if and to what extent such measures should be applied hinge on the magnitude of benefits and associated costs. We used an integrated forest estate pest-impact planning model to quantify harvest impacts for three plausible outbreak scenarios, and the effect of these typical mitigation strategies for 3.0 million ha in New Brunswick. Cumulative harvest reductions, relative to the no defoliation case, reached 18% and 25% by 2052 under moderate and severe defoliation patterns, respectively. We demonstrate that up to 30% to 50% of these projected reductions could be avoided through foliage protection treatments, depending on the outbreak scenario. Salvage and re-planning mitigated harvest losses by up to 20% in the short term (20 to 25 years), but had little benefit over the long run (40+ years). Even with aggressive implementation of all mitigation measures, significant harvest impacts (10% reduction from 2017 to 2042) were unavoidable, regardless of outbreak scenario.

scholarly journals Positive Results of an Early Intervention Strategy to Suppress a Spruce Budworm Outbreak after Five Years of Trials

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 448 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Peter Amirault ◽  
Luke Amos-Binks ◽  
Drew Carleton ◽  
Chris Hennigar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Intervention ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Treatment Programs ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Insecticide Treatment ◽  
Salvage Harvesting

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.; SBW) outbreaks are one of the dominant natural disturbances in North America, having killed balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and spruce (Picea sp.) trees over tens of millions of hectares. Responses to past SBW outbreaks have included the aerial application of insecticides to limit defoliation and keep trees alive, salvage harvesting of dead and dying trees, or doing nothing and accepting the resulting timber losses. We tested a new ‘early intervention strategy’ (EIS) focused on suppressing rising SBW populations before major defoliation occurs, from 2014 to 2018 in New Brunswick, Canada. The EIS approach included: (1) intensive monitoring of overwintering SBW to detect ‘hot spots’ of low but rising populations; (2) targeted insecticide treatment to prevent spread; and (3) proactive public communications and engagement on project activities and results. This is the first attempt of area-wide (all areas within the jurisdiction of the province of New Brunswick) management of a native forest insect population. The project was conducted by a consortium of government, forest industry, researchers, and other partners. We developed a treatment priority and blocking model to optimize planning and efficacy of EIS SBW insecticide treatment programs. Following 5 years of over 420,000 ha of EIS treatments of low but increasing SBW populations, second instar larvae (L2) SBW levels across northern New Brunswick were found to be considerably lower than populations in adjacent Québec. Treatments increased from 4500 ha in 2014, to 56,600 ha in 2016, and to 199,000 ha in 2018. SBW populations in blocks treated with Bacillus thuringiensis or tebufenozide insecticide were consistently reduced, and generally did not require treatment in the subsequent year. Areas requiring treatment increased up to 2018, but SBW L2 populations showed over 90% reductions in that year. Although this may be a temporary annual decline in SBW population increases, it is counter to continued increases in Québec. Following 5 years of tests, the EIS appears to be effective in reducing the SBW outbreak.

Potential wood supply losses to spruce budworm in New Brunswick estimated using the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System

2002 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 739-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
D A MacLean ◽  
K P Beaton ◽  
K B Porter ◽  
W E MacKinnon ◽  
M G Budd
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Support System ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Timber Harvesting ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Forest Protection

The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) was used to estimate potential volume losses to a future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak in New Brunswick. The SBW DSS was implemented separately on each of the ten Crown Timber Licenses, using data from forest industry management plan timber yields and harvest schedules; values were then compiled for all of New Brunswick. Potential volume losses on privately owned forest (industrial freehold and private woodlots) were estimated by matching stand types with those for Crown land. Total potential volume losses of 83 million and 195 million m3 of spruce–fir (Picea spp. – Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) were predicted for "normal" and "severe" budworm outbreak scenarios, defined based on past outbreaks in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and assumed to start in 2000. Simulated timber supply losses were 42 million, 40 mil-lion, and 1 million m3 on Crown, freehold, and federal land, respectively, under a normal outbreak scenario, versus 99 million, 92 million, and 3 million m3 under a severe outbreak scenario. On Crown land, 33% of the predicted loss in a severe outbreak occurred in stands scheduled for harvest over the next 30 years, 26% occurred in stands not scheduled for harvest for at least 30 years, and 41% was in the non-timber harvesting landbase (11% in Old Softwood Forest Habitat, 12% in Deer Wintering Areas, 14% in riparian buffers, and 3% in inaccessible areas). Harvest levels 11–20 years in the future were very sensitive to reduction in yields caused by defoliation. Under a severe outbreak scenario, if 40% of the landbase was not protected for 2, 5, or 8 years to limit defoliation (simulating spraying the insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis, B.t.), 2007–2011 harvest level reductions of 4.0, 6.0, and 8.4 million m3 , respectively, would be necessary. We conclude that the only way that planned harvest levels for New Brunswick can be maintained, under a future spruce budworm outbreak, is with effective targeted use of insecticides for forest protection. Key words: defoliation, growth reduction, mortality, protection planning

scholarly journals Economics of Early Intervention to Suppress a Potential Spruce Budworm Outbreak on Crown Land in New Brunswick, Canada

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Ye Liu ◽  
Van A. Lantz ◽  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Chris Hennigar
Keyword(s):  
Early Intervention ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Biological Insecticide ◽  
Protection Strategies

We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of ‘what if’ EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick.

Spruce budworm and management effects on forest and wood product carbon for an intensively managed forest

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (9) ◽  
pp. 1736-1750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris R. Hennigar ◽  
David A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Wood Product ◽  
Managed Forest ◽  
Insecticide Application ◽  
C Storage ◽  
Biological Insecticide ◽  
Intensively Managed ◽  
Forest C

An integrated forest management optimization model was developed to calculate potential spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) effects on forest and wood product carbon (C) from 2007 to 2057 and to evaluate potential C sequestration benefits of alternative management strategies (salvage, biological insecticide application). The model was tested using simulated spruce budworm outbreaks on a 210 000 ha intensively managed forest in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Under a severe spruce budworm outbreak scenario from 2007 to 2020, harvest volume and forest and wood product C storage in 2027 were projected to be reduced by 1.34 Mm3, 1.48 Mt, and 0.26 Mt, respectively, compared with the levels under no defoliation. Under the same severe outbreak scenario, implementation of salvage and harvest replanning plus a biological insecticide applied aerially to 40% of susceptible forest area, reduced harvest, forest C, and wood product C impacts by 73%, 41%, and 56%, respectively. Extrapolation of these results to all of New Brunswick suggests that a future severe spruce budworm outbreak could effectively increase total provincial annual C emissions (all sources) by up to 40%, on average, over the next 20 years. This modeling approach can be used to identify to what extent insecticide application, as a forest-C-offset project, could result in additional C storage than without forest and pest management.

The Interaction of the Spruce Budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), and the Parasite Glypta fumiferanae (Vier.)

1960 ◽  
Vol 92 (11) ◽  
pp. 839-850 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Adult Emergence ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Emergence Period ◽  
Realistic Estimate ◽  
Host Generation

This is the second of a series of papers (Miller, 1959) describing the interaction of primary parasites and the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), based on data collected during an outbreak of the budworm in northern New Brunswick during the period 1947–1958. The first paper showed that the interaction between the spruce budworm and Apanteles fumiferanae Vier. is adequately described by the general mathematicai model developed by Watt (1959). The data on the parasite Glypta fumiferanae (Vier.) to be presented in this paper are also analysed by means of Watt's model and consequently the method is essentially the same. There is, however, one important difference. In the case of A. fumiferanae, the estimated number of adult parasites was only an index based on the potential number emerging from the previous host generation. The observed density of G. fumiferanae is a more realistic estimate. It is based on the actual number of cocoons found on the foliage during the adult emergence period.

Evidence of DDT Resistance in Populations of Spruce Budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), From DDT-sprayed Areas of New Brunswick

1965 ◽  
Vol 97 (12) ◽  
pp. 1281-1293 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Randall
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Data Interpretation ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Mortality Curve ◽  
Progressive Development ◽  
Ddt Resistance

AbstractA series of laboratory toxicological experiments using various concentrations of oil formulated DDT solutions (AR-50/fuel oil (2:7 V/V)) was carried out on 5th and 6th instar spruce budworm larvae collected in the field from DDT-sprayed and untreated areas of New Brunswick, Canada, and Maine, U.S.A.Results obtained in 1959, 1961, and 1962 with larvae collected from isolated, unsprayed areas in New Brunswick showed a consistent, straight log-dosage probit mortality curve. Larvae collected in 1962 and 1963 from infestation centres previously subjected to three, four, and five applications of non-consecutive large-scale aerial sprays of DDT showed a significant departure from the straight log-dosage probit curve previously obtained. The departure occurs as a change in the shape of the curve as well as a shift to the higher concentration range of DDT. The magnitude of change appears to be correlated with the number of sprays to which the population was exposed. Results obtained in 1962 and 1963, from untreated control and inter-spray areas, bounded by DDT-sprayed forest lands, showed a small but significant departure from the normal straight probit line of a susceptible population. These changes are indicative of a progressive development of DDT resistance in wild populations of spruce budworm.Studies on the effect of the tolerance of spruce budworm larvae within instar classes to the action of DDT showed that the early phase of instar development immediately after moulting is more susceptible to the action of DDT, whereas the latter phase of instar development immediately prior to moulting is more tolerant to topical application of DDT than the average for the instar. This effect is evident in both susceptible and resistant populations.The data interpretation assumes that a deviation from the straight line probit dosage – mortality curve is indicative of a difference in the DDT-susceptibility factor of the budworm population and that in the course of the tests, the amount of toxicant causing mortality was not proportional to the dosage.

scholarly journals Monitoring Spruce Budworm with Light Traps: The Effect of Trap Position

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Rhainds ◽  
Edward G. Kettela
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Flight Period ◽  
Light Traps ◽  
Tree Canopies ◽  
Trap Location ◽  
Median Date ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Highly Correlated

Daily records of adult spruce budworms,Choristoneura fumiferana(Clemens) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), captured at light traps at multiple locations in New Brunswick in the 1970s, are analyzed in relation to the physical position of light traps (tree canopies or forest clearings). Captures at light traps deployed in tree canopies were 4–400 times greater than those in forest clearings, especially for males. The phenology of captures (median date or duration of flight period) did not differ in relation to trap location. Captures of both males and females in tree canopies were highly correlated with egg densities, whereas no significant relationship was observed for either sex in forest clearings. Monitoring programs for spruce budworm adults using light traps should be standardized by deploying traps in tree canopies.

Biological Consequences in Streams of Aerial Spraying with Fenitrothion Against Spruce Budworm in New Brunswick

1975 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.A. Hall ◽  
D.C. Eidt ◽  
P.E.K. Symons ◽  
D. Banks
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Fish Biomass ◽  
Organophosphate Insecticide ◽  
Fish Food

Abstract The effects of the organophosphate insecticide fenitrothion in streams in New Brunswick from operational spraying against spruce budworm larvae, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), have been investigated for four years. A number of streams have been studied and several agencies have documented insecticide concentrations in streams, effects of the insecticide on benthos drift and mortality, changes in benthos standing crop, and changes in fish populations, biomass, and growth. The concentration of fenitrothion found in streams immediately following forest spraying by aircraft varies greatly and is influenced by spray regime, weather conditions, forest cover, and water depth. At application rates of 210 g/ha or two applications of 140 g/ha, fenitrothion concentrations in streams with one exception were less than 15 ppb. Concentrations in streams usually peaked within the first hour following spray application and diminished to less than 1.0 ppb within 24 to 48 hrs. Insecticide applications at 210 g/ha have resulted in measurable concentrations of fenitrothion in streams as far as 4.0 km from the area of application. Using nets, sharply increased numbers of drifting Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera were measured in several streams that had peak fenitrothion concentrations up to 7 .6 ppb, following operational sprays over all or part of the drainage basins. Benthic sampling in one stream sprayed with fenitrothion in 1971, 1972, and 1973, but not in 1974, indicated a substantial decline in benthos between 1971 and 1972, and that recovery had not occurred by 1974. Kill of arthropods in another stream, containing a peak fenitrothion concentration of 6.38 ppb, was measured using drift nets. The stoneflies Leuctra spp. , Amphinemoura spp., and the mayflies, Baetis spp. were most strongly affected, although benthos sampling did not indicate a decline in numbers. Field studies in three sprayed streams suggested that early summer increases in fish biomass may be slowed by the spray program. In field and laboratory experiments, extreme doses were necessary to affect fish behaviour and survival. Evidence indicates that at worst the forest spray program in New Brunswick may sometimes reduce normal summer increases in fish biomass through a reduction in fish-food organisms. It is concluded that in streams the consequences of spruce budworm spraying with fenitrothion by the methods and rates studied in New Brunswick are environmentally tolerable.

Windthrow and growth response following a spruce budworm inspired, variable retention harvest in New Brunswick, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 659-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Wilson ◽  
David A. MacLean
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Growth Release ◽  
Variable Retention ◽  
Variable Retention Harvest

Forest management regimes increasingly focus on the emulation of natural disturbance events, e.g., fire or insect outbreaks, to help increase ecosystem sustainability. We determined the residual stand response to a variable retention harvest inspired by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreaks in New Brunswick, Canada. Our objectives were to analyze the differences between surviving residual trees and those that succumbed to windthrow and to quantify growth release. The treatment was based on harvesting the estimated spruce budworm outbreak mortality, i.e., 90% of mature balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., 60% of mature spruce (Picea spp.), and no hardwoods. Windthrow increased with the proportion of trees harvested and averaged 52% over 7–9 years in these stands with high balsam fir – spruce content. One-third of 42 harvested plots sustained >30% windthrow, whereas 73% of 11 similar unharvested plots had <10% windthrow. Balsam fir had higher windthrow than spruce at 53% and 41%, respectively. Windthrown balsam fir trees had significantly larger diameters at breast height (DBH, 1.3 m), larger heights, and smaller crown ratios than surviving residual trees. Substantial growth release occurred, with DBH increment of residual trees 48%–64% greater than trees in unharvested plots. Balsam fir and intolerant hardwoods exhibited the largest growth response. We suggest that future spruce budworm inspired harvests in stands with high balsam fir – spruce content use two or three entries about 5 years apart to reduce windthrow.

AN APPROACH TO MEASURING CHANGES IN THE REPRODUCTION OF SPRUCE BUDWORM (LEPIDOPTERA: TORTRICIDAE) FIELD POPULATIONS FROM SURVEY DATA

1979 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Sample Points

AbstractSurvey counts of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), female pupae, and eggs recorded annually at about 1000 sample points in New Brunswick from 1960 to 1975 provided ratios of eggs to females (E/F ratios) which are a measure of apparent reproduction. The 10-fold variation in the ratios was inversely associated with the frequency of July storm tracks. A positive relationship between E/F ratios and changes in the area of the budworm infestation in the province was also shown.

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