Simulations of Colorado Potato Beetle Development in Poland Based on Four Climate Change Scenarios

SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

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The change of the potential occurence of Colorado Potato Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) in the Czech Republic till 2050

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis ◽

10.11118/actaun200856020087 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 56 (2) ◽

pp. 87-94 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Eva Kocmánková ◽

Miroslav Trnka ◽

Daniela Semerádová ◽

Zdeněk Žalud ◽

Martin Dubrovský ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Czech Republic ◽

Colorado Potato Beetle ◽

Leptinotarsa Decemlineata ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Czech Republic ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Potato Beetle

This present study is focused on the modeling of the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) development in relation to the climate conditions over the area of the Czech Republic. The aim was to develop a model allowing the assessment of the CPB possible spread under the climate change. For the estimation of the CPB occurrence in expected climate conditions we used a dynamic model CLIMEX that enables to determine the suitability of a given location climate for the pests survival and infestation capability based on known pests requirements to the climate conditions. Following the validation and calibration of the model outputs, the meteorological data were altered according to three Global Circulation Models (ECHAM4, HadCM3, NCARPCM) that were driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A2, B1) with two assumed levels of climate system sensitivity for period 2025 and 2050. Model output, for current and expected climate conditions, were visualized by GIS using a digital landscape model. Under all climate change scenarios we noted a widening of CPB distribution area and change in the infestation pressure of the pest.

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