Causes of External Debt Crisis in Developing Countries: An Analysis using Panel VECM

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 258
Author(s):  
Harpreet ◽  
Sharanjit Singh Dhillon
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
pp. 103-124
Author(s):  
Rani Wijayanti ◽  
Sagita Rachmanira

AbstractThis study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the binomial logistic regression to construct a more general model. The binomial logistic regression offers a better predictive power relative to the noise to signal ratio. The binomial logistic regression can predict 61.5% of the government debt crisis 2 years in advance. An increase in inflation, government and private debt exposures, external debt to exports, ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves, and the ratio of external interest payments to gross national income can signal an upcoming debt crisis. Similarly, a continuous decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) and government consumption also increase the likelihood of government debt crisis.


1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 1263-1280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lewis W. Snider

The developing countries' suspension of payments on their external debt is as much a consequence of the political weakness of their governments and the excessive politicization of their economic policies as it is a result of unfavorable structural changes in the international economy. Differences in debtor governments' political performances are treated as an explicit variable rather than as residuals to an economic explanation in estimating the probability of developing countries' suspending their external debt service payments. Using a logit model, I analyze fifty-eight developing countries for the years 1970–1984. The results show that political capacity can be decisive in corrrectly predicting the probability of a government's suspending its external debt service payments. The model predicts 96% of the total outcomes correctly and 80% of the debt payment suspension cases correctly.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khonsa Tsabita

One of major economic problems particularly in developing countries is external debt crisis. Several developing countries including Indonesia have paid their external debt more than total fund they have received from developed countries. Moreover, the indebted country has to pay the interest every year which the amount keeps accruing. Debt is the main causes of poverty since most of them are “unjust” debt. Islam discourages Muslims to depend their lives on borrowing money, including at the state level. This research attempts to scrutinize the issue of external debt crisis and try to come out with a solution to the problem of the external debt crisis in Indonesia from Islamic perspective. This paper is using a qualitative analysis approach and collecting external debt data from the Central Bank of Indonesia and the World Bank. Findings indicate that the current system on managing external debt crisis in Indonesia has not been successful and need to be examined from different frameworks. Overall, this paper contributes to literatures on the debt crisis and provides some alternative solutions to government to manage the external debt crisis.===============================================Pengkajian Krisis Utang Luar Negeri Di Indonesia Dari Perspektif Islam - Salah satu persoalan ekonomi utama khususnya di negara berkembang adalah krisis utang luar negeri. Negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia membayar utang luar negeri mereka kepada negara-negara maju melebihi total dana yang diterima. Selain itu, negara-negara tersebut juga harus membayar bunga setiap tahun yang jumlahnya terus meningkat. Utang merupakan penyebab utama kemiskinan disebakan sebagian besar dari utang bersifat "tidak adil". Islam melarang umat Islam untuk menggantungkan hidupnya pada pinjaman uang, termasuk pada level negara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji masalah krisis utang luar negeri Indonesia dan mencoba menawarkan solusi dari perspektif Islam dalam mengatasi masalah tersebut. Artikel ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis kualitatif, dan mengumpulkan data utang luar negeri dari Bank Indonesia dan Bank Dunia. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa sistem pengelolaan krisis utang luar negeri di Indonesia belum berjalan dengan dengan baik sehingga perlu dilakukan dengan kerangka kerja yang berbeda. Secara keseluruhan, artikel ini berkontribusi dalam memperkaya literatur tentang krisis utang dan juga menyediakan beberapa solusi alternatif kepada pemerintah untuk mengelola krisis utang luar negeri.


1986 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence Harris
Keyword(s):  

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