scholarly journals Early Warning System for Government Debt Crisis in Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
pp. 103-124
Author(s):  
Rani Wijayanti ◽  
Sagita Rachmanira
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Signal Ratio ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Binomial Logistic Regression

AbstractThis study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the binomial logistic regression to construct a more general model. The binomial logistic regression offers a better predictive power relative to the noise to signal ratio. The binomial logistic regression can predict 61.5% of the government debt crisis 2 years in advance. An increase in inflation, government and private debt exposures, external debt to exports, ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves, and the ratio of external interest payments to gross national income can signal an upcoming debt crisis. Similarly, a continuous decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) and government consumption also increase the likelihood of government debt crisis.

scholarly journals The Association between Maternal Mortality and Non-Medical factors in African Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 351-362
Author(s):  
P. Lalthapersad-Pillay
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
National Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Maternal Deaths ◽  
Medical Factors ◽  
Pregnancy And Childbirth ◽  
Sub Saharan

The medical expertise to treat to complications arising from pregnancy and childbirth has not spared girls and women in developing countries from dying of such conditions. Developing countries account for the bulk of the global share of maternal deaths with complications of pregnancy and childbirth being the leading cause of death in young women aged between 15 and 49. Sub-Saharan Africa is responsible for nearly three-fifths of all global maternal deaths which have saddled it with notoriously high levels of maternal mortality ratios, a concern that has been red-flagged internationally and regionally. Most studies on maternal mortality in Africa have been confined to an examination of factors impinging on maternal mortality from both medical and socioeconomic standpoints for individual country’s based on survey data. Our study differs from others as it employs logistic regression to look at the association between non-medical factors and maternal mortality nationally for all African countries. Whilst the results from the logistic regression suggests that there is no statistically significant relationship between any of the variables and maternal mortality, the odds ratio for Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross National Income per capita (GNI) imply that African countries with low HDI are about three time more likely to have high maternal mortality compared to high HDI countries. Similarly, African countries with low GNI are about five times more likely to have high maternal mortality compared to high GNI countries.

The Political Performance of Third World Governments and the Debt Crisis

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 1263-1280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lewis W. Snider
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Political Capacity ◽  
Political Performance

The developing countries' suspension of payments on their external debt is as much a consequence of the political weakness of their governments and the excessive politicization of their economic policies as it is a result of unfavorable structural changes in the international economy. Differences in debtor governments' political performances are treated as an explicit variable rather than as residuals to an economic explanation in estimating the probability of developing countries' suspending their external debt service payments. Using a logit model, I analyze fifty-eight developing countries for the years 1970–1984. The results show that political capacity can be decisive in corrrectly predicting the probability of a government's suspending its external debt service payments. The model predicts 96% of the total outcomes correctly and 80% of the debt payment suspension cases correctly.

scholarly journals An Analysis of External Debts of Turkey (1980–2012)

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Çisil Erkan ◽  
Erdinç Tutar ◽  
Filiz Tutar ◽  
Mehmet Vahit Eren
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Domestic Capital

One of the most important goals of developing countries is to materialize sustainable economic growth and development. Foreign external debts play a key role in accelerating economic growth, investment and exports. Insufficient level of domestic capital accumulation generally forces developing countries to source finances by means of debts from foreign countries, banks and international organizations. External debt is also important resource for Turkey. In Turkish economy, external debt is taken generally in order to counter the saving deficit and foreign Exchange deficit and reach the high growth rate. External debts, which are initially taken as additional resources, can accelerate the investments, economic growth and development when they are used efficiently. But if the external debts aren’t used efficiently and the principal and interest payments of the external debts become higher than national income increase, it is required to get debts again to pay debts and thereby it causes to increase external debt burden and decrease the country welfare. In this study, development of external debts has been analyzed, starting from Ottoman Period until today. it is concluded that, external debts have created a negative impact on total investments between 1980 and 2010 in Turkey, and this negative impact on total investments has prevented economic growth. This conclusion suggests that the amount of foreign debt should be reduced so as to increase the level of economic growth in Turkey.

scholarly journals An Analytical Assessment of Financial Crisis in Developing Countries, Its Effects, Consequences and Implications

2020 ◽  
pp. 155-168
Author(s):  
Araniyar C. Isukul ◽  
John J. Chizea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Analytical Assessment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This research was borne out of the need to revisit the global financial crisis and re-examine the issue of how well policy responses by developing countries in Africa have fared in addressing the crisis. In the analysis of the effect of financial crisis, two specific periods were chosen, the period during the financial crisis, and a period after the financial crisis, a decade later. The data used in the analysis of the crisis include: Current account as a percentage of GDP, external debt as a percentage of gross national income, exports of goods as a percentage of GDP, openness of the economy, economic growth rate, inflation rate, credit to the private sector by banks as a percentage of GDP and foreign direct investment inflows as a percentage of GDP. The findings of this research reveal that the global financial crisis is long gone, but its effect on many developing countries continues to deepen as the prolong and protracted effect of the crisis continues to linger. The crisis has not only caused a serious setback on the growth momentum gained by developing countries, but it also may endanger hard won economic development striders garnered over the recent years.

scholarly journals EXAMINING THE EXTERNAL DEBT CRISIS IN INDONESIA FROM ISLAMIC PERSPECTIVE

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khonsa Tsabita
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Current System ◽  
External Debt ◽  
State Level ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Islamic Perspective ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
To Come ◽  
Alternative Solutions

One of major economic problems particularly in developing countries is external debt crisis. Several developing countries including Indonesia have paid their external debt more than total fund they have received from developed countries. Moreover, the indebted country has to pay the interest every year which the amount keeps accruing. Debt is the main causes of poverty since most of them are “unjust” debt. Islam discourages Muslims to depend their lives on borrowing money, including at the state level. This research attempts to scrutinize the issue of external debt crisis and try to come out with a solution to the problem of the external debt crisis in Indonesia from Islamic perspective. This paper is using a qualitative analysis approach and collecting external debt data from the Central Bank of Indonesia and the World Bank. Findings indicate that the current system on managing external debt crisis in Indonesia has not been successful and need to be examined from different frameworks. Overall, this paper contributes to literatures on the debt crisis and provides some alternative solutions to government to manage the external debt crisis.===============================================Pengkajian Krisis Utang Luar Negeri Di Indonesia Dari Perspektif Islam - Salah satu persoalan ekonomi utama khususnya di negara berkembang adalah krisis utang luar negeri. Negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia membayar utang luar negeri mereka kepada negara-negara maju melebihi total dana yang diterima. Selain itu, negara-negara tersebut juga harus membayar bunga setiap tahun yang jumlahnya terus meningkat. Utang merupakan penyebab utama kemiskinan disebakan sebagian besar dari utang bersifat "tidak adil". Islam melarang umat Islam untuk menggantungkan hidupnya pada pinjaman uang, termasuk pada level negara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji masalah krisis utang luar negeri Indonesia dan mencoba menawarkan solusi dari perspektif Islam dalam mengatasi masalah tersebut. Artikel ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis kualitatif, dan mengumpulkan data utang luar negeri dari Bank Indonesia dan Bank Dunia. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa sistem pengelolaan krisis utang luar negeri di Indonesia belum berjalan dengan dengan baik sehingga perlu dilakukan dengan kerangka kerja yang berbeda. Secara keseluruhan, artikel ini berkontribusi dalam memperkaya literatur tentang krisis utang dan juga menyediakan beberapa solusi alternatif kepada pemerintah untuk mengelola krisis utang luar negeri.

scholarly journals A Study of External Debt Trap Threat Faced by Indian Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Mansi Kukreja ◽  
Heena Upadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Debt Obligation

A debt trap occur to a country when somebody takes debt on a high-interest rate acceptance and is barely able to disburse back the responsibility of interest, thus being continuously trap in debt even by refinancing. Public debt is often a country’s major accountability: This is principally factual in developing countries, where a substantial sum of national income is exhausted repay such debt obligation. High debt servicing has thrown developing countries into a "debt trap", depriving them of the resources needed to secure long-term economic development and build up strong social and physical infrastructures. In current decades, unsustainable debt – mostly external – has brought country after country into deep economic crisis, with dramatic social consequences for their populations. This is a concealed virus eating India's Budget and it is quite untreatable. It is called a "debt trap" and its reason is simple — greed. India's problem is that it spends much more than it earns. That is all the term "fiscal deficit" means. The focus of paper in this study is to investigate the impact of debt on Indian economy and how government fills the gap between its earnings and spending through relentless borrowing.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document