The Macroeconomy and the Real Estate Market: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-383
Author(s):  
My-Linh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Toan Ngoc Bui
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanwool Jang ◽  
Yena Song ◽  
Sungbin Sohn ◽  
Kwangwon Ahn

This paper studies the contribution of real estate bubble to a financial crisis. First, we document symptoms of a real estate bubble along with a slowdown of the real economy and find indicators of an imminent crash of the stock market, triggering a sense of déjà vu from the 2008 crisis. However, we show that the relationship between real estate and financial markets has changed since the crisis. The empirical analyses provide evidence that the monetary policy has recovered its control over mortgage rates, which had been lost prior to the global financial crisis, and that the real estate market does not have a Granger causality relationship with the stock market any more. Findings suggest that an imminent financial market crash is not likely to be catalyzed by a real estate bubble.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 224
Author(s):  
Eddison T. Walters

Data analysis in recent studies by the current researcher presented evidence suggesting the existence of a real estate bubble preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 was a false conclusion. Data analysis from Walters (2019) resulted in 194.041 Mean Dependent Variable, 0.989 Adjusted R-square, 5.908 Square Error of Regression, and 488.726 Sum-of-Square Residual, from nonlinear regression analysis with the independent variable of “advancement in technology”, which proved to be the most significant factor causing the dependent variable of “home purchase price” to increase preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Based on the findings of data analysis in Walters (2019), the researcher concluded the data confirmed the assertion agreed upon by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, it was impossible to have a real estate bubble, while citing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in 2005. Subsequent to 2005, alternative attempts to explain the existence of a real estate bubble were made by both former Chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board. Subprime lending and low interest rates were ruled out as the cause of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 in Walters (2019). As a result of the findings from Walters (2019), further investigation to gain an understanding of the impact of how the rapid adaption of advancement in technology influence on the rapid increase in home purchase price preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 is required. The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding of the role the rapid adaption of advancement in technology played in the mortgage industry and real estate industry in the United States, and the influence on to the rapid increase in home purchase prices preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 as a result of the changes. Insight into the rapid transformation of the mortgage industry and the real estate industry in the United States, and the role the transformation played in the crisis is a critical factor to understanding the impact of advancement in technology on the real estate market in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Failure to consider the impact of rapid adaption of advancement in technology on the mortgage industry and real estate industry, and the transformation of the real estate market preceding the Global Financial Crisis 2007 and 2008, was a significant error which led to the false conclusion of the existence of a real estate bubble. An understanding of how the rapid transformation of the real estate market as a result of advancement in technology in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008, will provide the critical knowledge to evaluate mistakes leading to the false conclusion of a real estate bubble preceding the crisis. The information gained from the current study will help avoid a future financial crisis of the same magnitude.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 278
Author(s):  
Andrejs Čirjevskis

The real estate market of EU countries has undergone a severe global financial crisis 2008–2009, recovered successfully later, and now experiencing significant uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic event. Significant volatility of the real estate business is once again evident, just as it was following the global financial crisis. The paper aims to provide a case study of a real estate project by giving insight into the Latvian real estate project that had been experiencing similar economic uncertainty, to demonstrate hybrid real options valuation (ROV) method to adapt real estate investments to changing circumstances and to develop the decision-making solution to similar EU real estate problems during the pandemic. The paper provides the “step-by-step” ROV application’s methodology in real estate development projects. The presented methodology is a powerful managerial risk management tool for the executives of similar real estate development projects in the EU countries struggling to make investment decisions in the pandemic and post-pandemic period. Since any estimation includes assumptions, ROV results should be interpreted and perceived as approximations only. The future works can provide robust ROV analyses and interpretations regarding the demand for real estate, showing quantitatively how competition can impact strategic investment decisions.


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