La calle proyectada en el planeamiento urbanístico reciente. Murcia, 2001-2016

The 'prodigious decade' of Spanish urbanism caused a large expansion of urban lands, but also a much greater amount of planned but undeveloped land. The planning for this 'expectant city' is a challenge for the future of our cities. In this work, the streets proposed in these plans are analysed by evaluating their dimensional characteristics (surface and width) and their habitability (pedestrian-cyclist space and previsions of tree lines). The research is focused on the city of Murcia, paradigmatic case of the expansive urbanism typical of the real estate bubble. We have studied 2,096 streets from 92 partial plans approved during the period 2002-2013. The results show how the analysed variables change according to the use and density of the sectors and can be useful to evaluate the improvement of the habitability of these streets before their execution.

Digitalisation, pandemics and current world (2019-2021)

The new millennium saw the collapse of the real estate bubble in the United States and, together with other variables such as the high price of raw materials, a major global economic crisis began in October 2008. In 2011, as a result of the confluence of technologies and connected objects (Internet of Things) sparked thoughts that, we began to speak the Fourth Industrial Revolution. On 31 December 2019, pneumonia of unknown origin was discovered in Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, P.R. China. This unexpected event is being a driver of the great digital transformation of the world that began after the 2008 crisis.

Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior.

Does real estate bubble affect corporate innovation? Evidence from China

With the rapid increase of downward pressure on China’s economy, the stability of the property market, as an important part of the economic transformation process, also has a far-reaching impact on enterprises’ R&D investment. We select the data of Chinese large and medium-sized industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2015 as our research sample and propose a new combination measurement model based on closeness degree to measure the real estate bubble level in China accurately. The structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) theory is utilized to empirically test the dynamic relationship between the real estate bubble, corporate liquidity, and R&D investment. The results indicate that the real estate bubble level in China is increasing, and a certain risk of deviating from the safety interval in the future exists; The rapid expansion of the real estate bubble has a continuing negative impact on corporate R&D investment, that is, its "credit mitigation effect" is much smaller than the "capital relocation effect," and industrial enterprises will fall into the so-called "low-tech lock-in" state. In other words, to a certain extent, the development of this kind of real estate bubble will not be conducive to the transformation and upgradation of enterprises and long-term economic growth.

Overcoming the consequences of financial crisis on the example of Island and Ireland

Will Ireland share the fate of Iceland? Is this open, small economy with a debt-to-GDP ratio of above 130% on the verge of bankruptcy? Economists argue that if public debt is greater than national income, then smaller economies, heavily involved in the international division of labor are at risk of becoming insolvent. The bankruptcy of Ireland, whose prosperity is based on its reputation for being a good place to do business, could be a catastrophy. Contrary to the countries of southern Europe, the economy of the Green Island has never had problems with paying its liabilities and with solvency. While Greece has gone bankrupt five times since gaining independence in 1826 and Spain as many as thirteen in the past two centuries, Ireland's history in this area is impeccable (Reinhard, Rogoff, 2009, p. 3-6). Since the beginning of the 21st century Ireland's economic development has been based mainly on construction industry and not exports, as it used to be in the 1990s when the country was nicknamed the Celtic Tiger. The boom resulted in a budget surplus and a positive balance in current settlements. But it also resulted in higher prices - the Irish no longer had to accept slow wage growth to stay internationally competitive - which, combined with the low nominal interest rate of the European Central Bank, provided fertile ground for the build-up of the real estate bubble. The aim of the article is to identify the factors that led Ireland to the brink of bankruptcy and to try to answer the question whether the action of recapitalization of failing banks by the government and international financial institutions will bring the expected results in the form of healing the financial system and returning Green Island to the path of economic growth.

NEITHER ABSOLUTISM NOR NEGOTIATION: SPANISH EMPIRE BUILDING AND POLITICAL ECONOMY IN THE 18TH CENTURY CARIBBEAN

ABSTRACT This paper revisits the political economy during Spanish rule in America by reappraising the allegedly positive impact that intra-imperial transfers (situados) had on the Caribbean economy. It raises concerns concerning categories such as bargaining and absolutism and their accuracy in accounting for the nature of Spanish imperial rule. Three main findings are reported. Firstly, it seems inaccurate to hold that all remittances were injected into the economy with positive effects. Liquidity apparently provoked a real estate bubble. Secondly, the local market was not necessarily sensitive to the arrival of bullion. Finally, jurisdictional fragmentation allowed the king to issue debt in a disorderly fashion and with no constraints, and local officials and groups of interests to behave as free riders.

Kryzys mieszkaniowy w wybranych krajach Europy i w Stanach Zjednoczonych

W artykule poddaję analizie sytuację mieszkaniową w wybranych państwach Europy i w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Artykuł został podzielony na kilka części opisujących przyczyny i skutki kryzysu hipotecznego w Stanach Zjednoczonych, bezdomności pracowników Doliny Krzemowej, „pęknięcia” bańki mieszkaniowej w Hiszpanii, problemów mieszkaniowych na Wyspach Brytyjskich (pustostany w Londynie i kryzys wynajmu w Irlandii), buntu lokatorskiego w Berlinie i ubóstwa mieszkaniowego w Polsce. We wstępie uzasadniam, dlaczego mieszkanie powinno być postrzegane jako prawo człowieka, a nie towar. Zwracam uwagę na to, że od lat 80. XX wieku rządy państw rozwiniętych wycofywały się z zarządzania gospodarką mieszkaniową, pozwalając na jej regulację mechanizmom rynkowym. W każdym z omawianych państw doprowadziło to do znacznego wzrostu cen nieruchomości i wynajmu oraz napływu kapitału spekulacyjnego. Jako odmienny przykład wskazuję Wiedeń, gdzie rynek nieruchomości jest wciąż regulowany przez miasto i dzięki temu zdołano uniknąć tego scenariusza. Housing crisis in selected European countries and in the USA In this article I analyze the housing situation in selected European countries and in the USA. The article is divided into several parts in which I describe causes and effects of the mortgage crisis in the United States, homelessness of Silicon Valley workers, the Spanish real estate bubble “burst”, housing problems in the British Isles (vacancies in London and the rental crisis in Ireland), the tenant revolt in Berlin and housing poverty in Poland. In the introduction I justify why housing should be seen as a human right and not as a commodity. I note that since the 1980s governments of developed countries have withdrawn from housing management, allowing it to be regulated by market mechanisms. In each of the countries under review, this has led to a significant increase in property and rental prices as well as an inflow of venture capital. As an opposite example, I mention Vienna, where the real estate market is still regulated by the city, thus it managed to avoid this scenario.

Financial risk analysis of real estate bubble based on machine learning and factor analysis model

The regional real estate price bubble regulation policy is an external factor for the real estate industry. The effect of real estate regulation is difficult to determine, which is a typical problem of uncertain system analysis and forecasting, and the gray Bayesian network forecasting model is to solve the forecasting problem of economic system subject to external regulation. Based on machine learning and factor analysis models, this paper constructs a real estate bubble financial risk analysis model based on machine learning and factor analysis models. Moreover, starting from the real estate price bubble, which is a hot and difficult issue of the social economy, this paper discusses the causes of the formation of real estate price bubbles and the mechanism of the formation of real estate price bubbles, looks for the importance of policy regulation of real estate price bubbles, and clarifies the functional game model of policy regulation of real estate price bubbles. In addition, this paper uses examples to study the model constructed in this paper. The results show that the model constructed in this paper has a certain effect.

Evidence From Data Analysis, Fifteen Developed Countries and the United States Home Prices Increase Between 1990 to 2006 Result of Advancement In Technology, Worldwide Economic Collapse and Great Recession Result of False Information by Media and Economic Policy Failures: Walters Real Estate Bubble Impossibility Price Transparency Theory, Real Estate Bubble Is Impossible, An End to Economic Policies Based on False Information

Based on the findings of the current study, policymakers must take a hard look at the media and themselves, because the world can no longer blame the subprime mortgage industry for causing the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The public must demand answers from the media and policymakers explaining how an economic crisis that could have been avoided resulted in the collapse of the global economy. The lack of evidence supporting the theory of a financial bubble and a real estate bubble called for further investigation of factors leading to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Evidence presented from data analysis in Walters (2018) suggested no financial bubble existed in developed or developing countries around the world, preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Based on data analysis in Walters (2018) the evidence also suggested, the lasting effect of economic policies in response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 for both developed and developing countries around the world, had no significant impact on the financial sector but pointed to a lack of economic growth. The findings raised significant questions about the existence of a real estate bubble in both developed and developing countries. Evidence from data analysis presented in Walters and Djokic (2019) suggested the existence of a real estate bubble in the United States real estate market preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 was a false conclusion. Data analysis in Walters (2019) resulted in, 0.989 Adjusted R-square, 194.041 Mean Dependent Variable, 5.908 Square Error of Regression, 488.726 Sum-of- Square Residual, and 0.00000 Probability (F-statistic), for correlation between the independent variable representing advancement in technology, and the dependent variable representing home purchase price in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The findings in Walters (2019) concluded the rapid increase in home purchase price in the United States real estate market, was due to increased demand for homes from the adaptation of advancement in technology in the real estate and mortgage industries. The current study expanded the investigation of the growth in home purchase price to fifteen developed countries around the world, building on the findings of previous research by the current researcher. The researcher in the current study concluded, the existence of significant and near-perfect correlation in many cases, between the dependent variable representing growth in home purchase price, and the independent variable representing advancement in technology. The analysis was based on data analyzed from fifteen developed countries around the world, which was collected between 1990 and 2006. The data analysis included home purchase price data from, Canada, United Kingdom, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, New Zealand, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, Ireland, Belgium, Norway, Spain, and Portugal. Data preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 were analyzed in the current study. The researcher in the current study concluded the existence of overwhelming evidence suggesting advancement in technology was responsible for the rapid increase in home prices in developed countries around the world preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result of data analysis in the current study provided further confirmation of the accuracy of former Federal Reserve Board Chairmen, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke 2005 assessment which concluded, the occurrence of a real estate bubble developing was impossible due to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, before reversing course subsequent their assertion in 2005 (Belke & Wiedmann, 2005; Starr,2012). The result of the current study provided additional evidence supporting Eddison Walters Risk Expectation Theory of The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result from data analysis also confirmed the need for the adaptation of Eddison Walters Modern Economic Analysis Theory. As a result of the findings in the current study, the researcher concluded the development of a real estate bubble is impossible where there exists real estate price transparency, as is the case in most developed and developing countries. The researcher presented Walters Real Estate Bubble Impossibility Price Transparency Theory based on the findings. False information of a real estate bubble and predictions of a real estate crash disseminated through the mainstream media and social media can be a destructive force with a disastrous effect on the economy around the world. The failure by the media to hold themselves and policymakers to a higher standard resulted in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result of the failure by the media was a worldwide economic crisis and the Great Recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Lessons learned from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 can assist in preventing another economic crisis in the future.