Psycholinguistic Preconditions of Speech Formation of Children with General Speech Retardation

The article addresses psycholinguistic preconditions for development of the communicative component of speech activity in 5-year-olds with general speech retardation (GSR). The development of speech activity is analyzed through the lens of psycholinguistic motivation for the emergence of speech units. The authors for the first time identified psychological mechanisms that underlie disorders in the development of the communication component of speech activity in 5-year-olds with GSR and suggested effective interventions. The research involved a study of probability prediction within the structure of the communicative component of speech activity of 5-year-olds with GSR. The author-developed classification of non-verbal and verbal probability prediction formed the basis for a theory-based diagnostic tool to assess the communicative component of speech activity in 5-year-olds with GSR. The research demonstrated the importance of probability prediction as a dynamic process and indicator of practical realization of utterance and holistically developed coherent speech. The analysis of disorders in cognitive and speech operations and functions identified in the study points to the dominant role of weak probability prediction function at non-verbal and verbal levels. Weak probability prediction was defined as the cause of poorly developed communication component of speech activity in 5-year-olds with GSR.

Imprecision and Preferences in Interpretation of Verbal Probabilities in Health: a Systematic Review

Introduction Many health providers and communicators who are concerned that patients will not understand numbers instead use verbal probabilities (e.g., terms such as “rare” or “common”) to convey the gist of a health message. Objective To assess patient interpretation of and preferences for verbal probability information in health contexts. Methods We conducted a systematic review of literature published through September 2020. Original studies conducted in English with samples representative of lay populations were included if they assessed health-related information and elicited either (a) numerical estimates of verbal probability terms or (b) preferences for verbal vs. quantitative risk information. Results We identified 33 original studies that referenced 145 verbal probability terms, 45 of which were included in at least two studies and 19 in three or more. Numerical interpretations of each verbal term were extremely variable. For example, average interpretations of the term “rare” ranged from 7 to 21%, and for “common,” the range was 34 to 71%. In a subset of 9 studies, lay estimates of verbal probability terms were far higher than the standard interpretations established by the European Commission for drug labels. In 10 of 12 samples where preferences were elicited, most participants preferred numerical information, alone or in combination with verbal labels. Conclusion Numerical interpretation of verbal probabilities is extremely variable and does not correspond well to the numerical probabilities established by expert panels. Most patients appear to prefer quantitative risk information, alone or in combination with verbal labels. Health professionals should be aware that avoiding numeric information to describe risks may not match patient preferences, and that patients interpret verbal risk terms in a highly variable way.

Tracking Accuracy of Strategic Intelligence Forecasts: Findings from a Long-Term Canadian Study

Forecasting plays a vital role in intelligence assessment and contributes to national security decision-making by improving strategic foresight. Remarkably, most intelligence organizations do not proactively track their forecasting accuracy and, therefore, do not know how accurate their forecasts are or what types of biases intelligence analysts (or organizations) might exhibit. We review research on geopolitical forecasting and a roughly decade-long program of research to assess the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts produced by and for the Government of Canada. This research is described in three phases corresponding to previously published research, following which novel analyses (drawing from the data used in the earlier phases) are reported. The findings reveal a high degree of forecasting accuracy as well as significant underconfidence. These results were evident regardless of whether analysts assigned numeric probabilities to their forecasts. However, the novel analyses clarified that there is a substantial cost to accuracy if end-users rely on their own interpretations of verbal probability terms used in the forecasts. We recommend that intelligence organizations proactively track forecasting accuracy as a means of supporting accountability and organizational learning. We also recommend that intelligence organizations use numeric probabilities in forecasts as a means of improving intelligence producer-consumer agreement in the interpretation of forecasts and other probabilistic assessments.

Variability in the interpretation of probability phrases used in Dutch news articles — a risk for miscommunication

Verbal probability phrases are often used in science communication to express estimated risks in words instead of numbers. In this study we look at how laypeople and statisticians interpret Dutch probability phrases that are regularly used in news articles. We found that there is a large variability in interpretations, even if the phrases are given in a neutral context. Also, statisticians do not agree on the interpretation of the phrases. We conclude that science communicators should be careful in using verbal probability expressions.

The role of context in the interpretation of verbal probability expressions used in International Financial Reporting Standards

The objective of this study is to specify whether the interpretation of verbal probability expressions (VPEs) by accounting professionals depends on the context in which they have been used in IFRS. For the purpose of this study, a questionnaire was distributed, and a sample of accountants and auditors was asked to interpret the “probable” expression used in IFRS establishing the threshold for recognising various accounting elements. The results provide further support for the hypothesis that the context the VPEs are used in affects their interpretation. The results indicate the problem of inconsistency in the interpretation of these expressions by accounting professionals. Thus, this study should provide some tentative implications for standard setters to consider in using VPEs in IFRS.

Communicative Functions of Directional Verbal Probabilities: Speaker's Choice, Listener's Inference, and Reference Points

Verbal probabilities have directional communicative functions, and most can be categorized as positive (e.g., “it is likely”) or negative (e.g., “it is doubtful”). We examined the communicative functions of verbal probabilities based on the reference point hypothesis According to this hypothesis, listeners are sensitive to and can infer a speaker's reference points based on the speaker's selected directionality. In four experiments (two of which examined speakers’ choice of directionality and two of which examined listeners’ inferences about a speaker's reference point), we found that listeners could make inferences about speakers’ reference points based on the stated directionality of verbal probability. Thus, the directionality of verbal probabilities serves the communicative function of conveying information about a speaker's reference point.