Non-linearity in Equity Market Timing: Empirical Evidence From the UK

This paper empirically tests the market timing theory to prove that issuing behavior of managers is non-linear. Consistent with the literature we show that mangers increase use of equity to finance their deficit when equities are overvalued and resort to a higher proportion of debt when equities are undervalued. Our results further suggest that mangers however exhibit a distinctive pattern when timing the market. The increase in reliance on equity to finance their deficit during periods of equity overvaluation is non-linear and only significant when the degree of overvaluation is not excessive. Furthermore, during periods of undervaluation managers resort to higher levels of leverage to finance their deficit only when undervaluation levels are excessive. This has serious implications on the ability of the equity market timing as a stand-alone theory in explaining capital structure decisions and poses some interesting implications on the debt-equity choice question when financing the deficit.

The Relationship between Earnings Management and Equity Market Timing

ABSTRACT Objective: this study aims to verify if companies that practice equity market timing have higher earnings management levels around the stock issue period. Method: we used a sample of 68 seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) in Brazil from 2004-2015. First, we ranked the sample among companies that used market timing (timers) behavior in the SEOs and those that did not (non-timers). Second, we estimated each company’s earnings management levels by the Modified Jones and Modified Jones with ROA models. Finally, we tested the relationship between earnings management and equity market timing using a linear regression model. Results: the results show that the timers managed earnings more intensively in the quarters around SEOs than the non-timers. This happens to increase net income and consequently improve profitability ratios. Therefore, to explore opportunity windows, managers can inflate accounting profit through accruals and influence the market’s ability to correctly price shares. Conclusion: Brazilian companies practice earnings management as a way of exploiting opportunity windows in the stock market. The conclusion reinforces the need for a careful analysis of the company’s profits by investors, analysts, auditors, and regulators while allowing efforts to avoid such practices through compliance, governance, and regulation.

Analisis Equity Market Timing dan Struktur Modal

This study aims to examine the effect of equity market timing in determining the company's capital structure decisions. The sample used was Indonesian manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2013-2018 period. This study uses independent variables namely market to book ratio and External finance weighted average market to book ratio (EFWAMTB), the dependent variable used is market leverage, and the control variables used are profitability, tangibility, and size. This study uses panel data regression. The results of this study indicate that the MTB ratio and EFWAMTB have a significant negative effect on market leverage. So it can be said that Indonesian manufacturing companies apply the equity market timing theory in determining capital structure decisions. The profitability and firm size control variables give significant negative and the tangibility variable shows significant positive results on the company's market leverage. Keywords: equity market timing, market to book ratio, market to book ratio dan External finance weighted average market to book ratio (EFWAMTB), ROA, tangibility, size and market leverage. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh equity market timing dalam menentukan keputusan struktur modal perusahaan.Sampel yang digunakan adalah perusahaan manufaktur Indonesia yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) periode 2013-2018. Strudi ini menggunakan variabel independen yaitu market to book ratio dan external finance weighted average market to book ratio (EFWAMTB), variabel dependen yang digunakan yaitu market leverage dan variabel kontrol yang digunakan adalah profitabilitas, tangibilitas dan size. Studi ini menggunakan regresi data panel.Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa MTB dan EFWAMTB berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap market leverage.Sehingga dapat dikatakan perusahaan manufaktur Indonesia menerapkan teori equity market timing dalam menentukan keputusan struktur modalnya. Variabel kontrol profitabilitas dan firm size memberikan hasil negatif signifikan dan untuk variabel tangibilitas menunjukan hasil positif signifikan terhadap market leverage prusahaan. Kata Kunci: equity market timing, market to book ratio, market to book ratio dan External finance weighted average market to book ratio (EFWAMTB), ROA, tangibility, size and market leverage

Equity market timing and capital structure: evidence on post-IPO firms in Indonesia

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies in Indonesia by apply Baker and Wurgler’s analytical approach to firms in Indonesia to see, first, if that approach applies to Indonesian firms and, second, if it can be generalized to other emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study will focus on capital structure policies based on Market Timing Theory in developing countries, which uses the panel data of companies listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange after IPO. The companies used as research object are 70 firms in the non-financial/non-banking sector with the observation period of 2000–2015. The period of measurement is five years after IPO. Using a past market value in which equity market timing is measured in two-time measurements, i.e. yearly timing and long-term timing to prove its persistence. Findings Consistent with equity market timing theory, the results suggest that firms tend to issue equities when their market valuations are relatively higher than their book values and their past market values are high. As a consequence, the firms become underleveraged or have their debts reduced in the short run. The results of long-term measurement on equity market timing do not appear to affect the firms’ capital structure decisions due to the firms’ relatively quick adjustments of optimal capital structures. The conclusion is that equity market timing is an important element in the short run but not in the long run. Research limitations/implications The results of this study describe how firms in Indonesia take advantage of temporary market share fluctuations through equity market timing in their capital structure policies before ultimately making adjustments to the directions they are targeting. Practical implications The use of equity market timing is more aimed at reducing the debt ratio and avoiding unfavorable conditions in the debt market, as well as taking advantage of the capital gains derived from the differences in their stock prices. This study also has practical implications on investment policies that need to consider the adaptation factor of the industrial environment when it comes to making capital structure decisions, including how the entity must take policy when uncertain economic conditions. Social implications Through the research behavior of capital structure more in-depth decision is expected to provide an overview for investors widely in determining investment policy. Thus, the investment strategy is more planned and can also anticipate unexpected conditions. Originality/value This research is the first study to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies on post-IPO firms in Indonesia. This research is an empirical study that investigates the relevance of equity market timing considerations in the determination of debt-equity choices in the capital structure, included in the conditions of the global financial crisis.

Moderating Impact of Ownership Structure on Relationship of Equity Market Timing with Capital Structure on Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange

<pre>The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of market to book ratio on leverage change with ownership structure as moderating variable. The research sample is 41 companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange which conducted IPO in 2005 - 2010. The analysis period is five years after an IPO. The independent variable is market to book ratio, the dependent variable is leverage change and control variable is tangibility, profit and size. The moderating variables are managerial and institutional ownerships which included as ownership structure. This research is using data panel regression. The results show that companies in Indonesia pursued the equity market timing strategy because there is a positive effect of market to book ratio into equity issue and negative effect of market to book ratio into leverage change. The results also show that institutional ownership structure moderating the equity market timing. However, managerial ownership does not moderating the equity market timing.</pre>

Equity Issue and a Long-Term Effect of Equity Market Timing on Capital Structure

After the research about a short term effect of equity market timing on capital structure, the author is motivated to do research about a long term effect of equity market timing on capital structure of the firms which is listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The main problems on this research are to understand whether firms use equity market timing theory when issuing equity, and whether equity market timing has a long term effect on its capital structure. Then the purpose of this study is to examine the problems of this research. There are two hypothesis in this research. First, firms use equity market timing when issuing equity, and second, equity market timing has a long term effect on capital structure of firms in Indonesia. This research uses non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange over the period of 2001 to 2011 as the sample. The data used in this research are panel data. The sample choosing is based on sample non-probability sampling using purposive sampling in form of judgment sampling. The research model used in this study is a distributed-lag regression model. The results of this research show that firms use equity market timing when issuing equity, and equity market timing does not have a long term effect on capital structure of firms in Indonesia. Thus, because there is deviation on the capital structure, then there is an indication that the firms will perform the process of speed adjustment towards the targeted capital structure, the optimum capital structure.