Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability

Sustainability—maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values—is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach for evaluating changing sustainability under a changing climate. We use Bayesian regression models to compare fish population processes under historical climate norms and emerging anthropogenic extremes. To define anthropogenic extremes we use the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), which estimates the proportion of risk for extreme ocean temperatures that can be attributed to human influence. We illustrate our approach with estimates of recruitment (production of young fish, a key determinant of sustainability) for two exploited fishes (Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and walleye pollock G. chalcogrammus) in a rapidly warming ecosystem, the Gulf of Alaska. We show that recruitment distributions for both species have shifted towards zero during anthropogenic climate extremes. Predictions based on the projected incidence of anthropogenic temperature extremes indicate that expected recruitment, and therefore fisheries sustainability, is markedly lower in the current climate than during recent decades. Using FAR to analyze changing population processes may help fisheries managers and stakeholders to recognize situations when historical sustainability expectations should be reevaluated.

Using single-cell models to predict the functionality of synthetic circuits at the population scale

Mathematical modeling has become a major tool to guide the characterization and synthetic construction of cellular processes. However, models typically lose their capacity to explain or predict experimental outcomes as soon as any, even minor, modification of the studied system or its operating conditions is implemented. This limits our capacity to fully comprehend the functioning of natural biological processes and is a major roadblock for the de novo design of complex synthetic circuits. Here, using a specifically constructed yeast optogenetic differentiation system as an example, we show that a simple deterministic model can explain system dynamics in given conditions but loses validity when modifications to the system are made. On the other hand, deploying theory from stochastic chemical kinetics and developing models of the system's components that simultaneously track single-cell and population processes allows us to quantitatively predict emerging dynamics of the system without any adjustment of model parameters. We conclude that carefully characterizing the dynamics of cell-to-cell variability using appropriate modeling theory may allow one to unravel the complex interplay of stochastic single-cell and population processes and to predict the functionality of composed synthetic circuits in growing populations before the circuit is constructed.

Phylogenomic conflict coincides with rapid morphological innovation

Evolutionary biologists have long been fascinated with the episodes of rapid phenotypic innovation that underlie the emergence of major lineages. Although our understanding of the environmental and ecological contexts of such episodes has steadily increased, it has remained unclear how population processes contribute to emergent macroevolutionary patterns. One insight gleaned from phylogenomics is that gene-tree conflict, frequently caused by population-level processes, is often rampant during the origin of major lineages. With the understanding that phylogenomic conflict is often driven by complex population processes, we hypothesized that there may be a direct correspondence between instances of high conflict and elevated rates of phenotypic innovation if both patterns result from the same processes. We evaluated this hypothesis in six clades spanning vertebrates and plants. We found that the most conflict-rich regions of these six clades also tended to experience the highest rates of phenotypic innovation, suggesting that population processes shaping both phenotypic and genomic evolution may leave signatures at deep timescales. Closer examination of the biological significance of phylogenomic conflict may yield improved connections between micro- and macroevolution and increase our understanding of the processes that shape the origin of major lineages across the Tree of Life.

Seasonal Variation in Space Use and Territoriality in an Invasive Large Mammal (Sus Scrofa)

An individual’s spatial behavior is shaped by social and environmental factors and provides critical information about population processes to inform conservation and management actions. Heterogeneity in spatial overlap among conspecifics can be evaluated using estimates of home ranges and core areas and used to understand factors influencing space use and territoriality. To understand and test predictions about spatial behavior in an invasive large mammal, the wild pig (Sus scrofa), we examined variation in space use between sexes and seasons. We predicted that if animals were territorial that there would be a reduction in space-use overlap when comparing overlap of home ranges (HR-HR), to home ranges and core areas (HR-CA), and in-turn to core areas (CA-CA). Home ranges and core areas were estimated for 54 wild pigs at Buck Island Ranch, FL from GPS telemetry data. Overlap indices were calculated to estimate the strength (space-use overlap) and number of potential interactions within three wet seasons (June-October) and two dry seasons (December-April). Across all seasons, males exhibited larger home ranges compared to females (M = 10.36±0.79 km² (±SE), F = 3.21±0.16 km²) and interacted with a greater number of individuals than females. Home range size and strength of interactions did not vary between wet and dry seasons. Consistent with our predictions, wild pigs appeared to exhibit territorial behavior, where strength of overlap decreased when comparing HR-HR to HR-CA and HR-CA to CA-CA. Strength of overlap varied by sex, which was lowest between females, intermediate between females and males, and greatest between males. Our framework can be used to understand patterns of space use and territoriality in populations, which has important implications in understanding population processes and how pathogens and parasites might spread within and among populations.

Phylogenomic conflict coincides with rapid morphological innovation

Evolutionary biologists have long been fascinated with the episodes of rapid phenotypic innovation that underlie the emergence of major lineages. Although our understanding of the environmental and ecological contexts of such episodes has steadily increased, it has remained unclear how population processes contribute to emergent macroevolutionary patterns. One insight gleaned from phylogenomics is that phylogenomic conflict, frequently caused by population-level processes, is often rampant during the origin of major lineages. With the understanding that phylogenomic conflict is often driven by complex population processes, we hypothesized that there may be a direct correspondence between areas of high conflict and elevated rates of phenotypic innovation if both patterns result from the same processes. We evaluated this hypothesis in six clades spanning vertebrates and plants. We found that the most conflict-rich regions of these six clades also tended to experience the highest rates of phenotypic innovation, suggesting that population processes shaping both phenotypic and genomic evolution may leave signatures at deep timescales. Closer examination of the biological significance of phylogenomic conflict may yield improved connections between micro- and macroevolution and increase our understanding of the processes that shape the origin of major lineages across the Tree of Life.