The causes and consequences of fisheries conflict around the Horn of Africa

Fisheries conflict is an underappreciated threat to the stability and health of communities. Declining fish populations, rising demand for seafood, and efforts to reduce illegal fishing are increasing the risk that conflict over fisheries resources will undermine stability and peace. Here, we investigate the frequency, causes, and consequences of fisheries conflict in six countries around the Horn of Africa and East Africa (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Yemen) between 1990 and 2017. Fisheries conflict events were cataloged from news reports, and events were characterized by the date, location, actors, consequences, and drivers of the conflict. We found the rate of fisheries conflict is gradually increasing in the region, with spikes in conflict driven by the arrival of foreign fishing boats or international naval vessels. Conflict was caused primarily by illegal fishing, foreign fishing, weak governance, limits on access to fishing grounds, and criminal activities including piracy. Two-thirds of all conflict events occurred in Kenyan and Somali waters, with areas of high conflict intensity in the Lake Victoria region, near the Somali coastline, and in the southern Red Sea. During this period, 684 fisheries conflict events in the region resulted in over 400 fatalities, nearly 500 injuries, and over 4,000 arrests.

Typology of Family Relationships and 6-Year Mortality Risk

Durkheim’s “family protection” thesis indicated that family could protect individuals from death. However, there are heterogeneities in family types. It remains unclear whether all family types play a protective role in older adults’ later life. This study aims to test the relationship between family types and 6-year mortality. Data were derived from a prospective cohort study from 2011 to 2017 of 3,018 U.S. Chinese older adults in Chicago. Family typology was clustered by Latent Class Analysis, including tight-knit (high solidarity and low conflict), unobligated ambivalent (high solidarity and high conflict), commanding conflicted (low solidarity and high conflict), and detached (low solidarity and low conflict). Cox model was used. The result showed that older adults in detached type have higher mortality risk than those in tight-knit type after controlling age, gender, education, income, and medical conditions. Future study could explore the mechanisms through which family types affect mortality risk.

Proportion of Conflict, Contingency Learning, and Recency Effects in a Stroop Task

Recent research on the relation between learning and cognitive control has assumed that conflict modulates learning, either by increasing arousal and hence improving learning in high conflict situations (Verguts & Notebaert, 2008), or by inducing control, and hence inhibiting the processing of distracters and their eventual association with the imperative responses (Whitehead et al., 2018). We analyze whether the amount of conflict, manipulated through the proportion of congruency in a set of Stroop inducer trials, affects learning of contingencies established on diagnostic trials composed by neutral words associated with color responses. The results reproduced the list-wide proportion of congruency effect on the inducer trials, and showed evidence of contingency learning on the diagnostic trials, but provided no indication that this learning was modulated by the level of conflict. Specific analyses conducted to control for the impact of episodic effects on the expression of learning indicated that contingency effects were not driven by the incremental processes that could be expected by associative learning, but rather they were due to the impact of the most recent trial involving the same distracter. Accordingly, these effects disappeared when tested selectively on trials that required a non-matching response with respect to the previous occurrence of the distracter. We interpret this result in the context of the debate on how learning and memory interact with the processes of cognitive control.

An Improved Method for Multisensor High Conflict Data Fusion

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory can effectively process imperfect information and is widely used in a data fusion system. However, classical Dempster-Shafer evidence theory involves counter-intuitive behaviors with the data of multisensor high conflict in target identification system. In order to solve this problem, an improved evidence combination method is proposed in this paper. By calculating the support degree and the belief entropy of each sensor, the proposed method combines conflict evidences. A new method is used to calculate support degree in this paper. At the same time, inspired by Deng entropy, the modified belief entropy is proposed by considering the scale of the frame of discernment (FOD) and the relative scale of the intersection between evidences with respect to FOD. Because of these two modifications, the effect has been improved in conflict data fusion. Several methods are compared and analyzed through examples. And the result suggests the proposed method can not only obtain reasonable and correct results but also have the highest fusion reliability in solving the problem of high conflict data fusion.

The use of health facility data to assess the effects of armed conflicts on maternal and child health: experience from the Kivu, DR Congo

Background In conflict-affected settings, data on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) are often lacking for priority setting and timely decision-making. We aimed to describe the levels and trends in RMNCH indicators within Kivu provinces between 2015 and 2018, by linking conflict data with health facility (HF) data from the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Methods We used data from the DHIS2 for the period 2015–2018, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey, the 2018 Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Health zones were categorised in low, moderate and high conflict intensity level, based on an annual conflict death rate. We additionally defined a monthly conflict death rate and a conflict event-days rate as measures of conflict intensity and insecurity. Outcomes were completion of four antenatal care visits, health facility deliveries, caesarean sections and pentavalent vaccine coverage. We assessed data quality and analyzed coverage and trends in RMNCH indicators graphically, by conflict categories and using HF data aggregated annually. We used a series of fixed-effect regression models to examine the potential dose-response effect of varying conflict intensity and insecurity on RMNCH. Results The overall HF reporting was good, ranging between 83.3 and 93.2% and tending to be lower in health zones with high conflict intensity in 2016 and 2017 before converging in 2018. Despite the increasing number of conflict-affected health zones over time, more in North-Kivu than in South-Kivu, we could not identify any clear pattern of variation in RMNCH coverage both by conflict intensity and insecurity. North-Kivu province had consistently reported better RMNCH indicators than South-Kivu, despite being more affected by conflict. The Kivu as a whole recorded higher coverage than the national level. Coverage of RMNCH services calculated from HF data was consistent with population-based surveys, despite year-to-year fluctuation among health zones and across conflict-intensity categories. Conclusions Although good in general, the HF reporting rate in the Kivu was negatively impacted by conflict intensity especially at the beginning of the DHIS2’s rolling-up. Routine HF data appeared useful for assessing and monitoring trends in RMNCH service coverage, including in areas with high-intensity conflict.

Glossary to Support Applied International Research on Decision Making for High Conflict Urban Marches and Parades

This article was created in context of OPMoPS (Organized Pedestrian Movement in Public Spaces), a French-German interdisciplinary collaboration on high conflict urban marches and parades. As OPMoPS aims to support decision making for authorities of public order, both a French and a German police institution are members of the consortium. Communication with target group was insofar challenging, as their experts' language is close to everyday terms. Thus the authors are proposing the following glossary to support applied international research in this field. Both authors are not skilled language experts but pragmatic members of OPMoPS's police institutions. All terms can be found in English, German and French, with a focus on police and on German police procedure. It is firstly classed in thematic order, and secondly in alphabetical order.