Using fuzzy time series with and without markov chain: to forecast of edible bird nest exported from Indonesia

Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok. This study compared two-algorithm method. Fuzzy time series and Markov chain as forecast method the number of bird nest exported from Indonesia. The secondary data between 2012 and 2018 were from Bureau Central Statistic (BPS). The scope using in this study were bird nest between 2012 until 2018, with a unit of volume kilograms (Kg). Used secondary export data, collected from BPS of Indonesia. Data were analysed using Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain using R Studio. The result showed that Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain method performs better in the forecasting ability in short-term period prediction and the values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) tends to be smaller than the Fuzzy Time Series without Markov Chain. It can be concluded the number of exported can be used Fuzzy time series.

Interspecific attraction between ground-nesting songbirds and ants: the role of nest-site selection

Background Interspecific interactions within ecological networks can influence animal fitness and behaviour, including nest-site selection of birds and ants. Previous studies revealed that nesting birds and ants may benefit from cohabitation, with interspecific attraction through their nest-site choice, but mutual interactions have not yet been tested. We explored a previously undescribed ecological link between ground-nesting birds and ants raising their own broods (larvae and pupae) within the birds’ nests in a temperate primeval forest of lowland Europe. We tested whether the occurrence of ant broods within bird nests resulted from a mutual or one-sided interspecific attraction that operated through nest-site choice and was modified by weather conditions. Results We found a non-random occupation of bird nests by ants raising their own broods within them, which indicated interspecific attraction driven solely by the ants. The birds’ preference to nest near tussocks of vegetation showed little overlap with the most frequent placement of ant colonies among fallen deciduous tree-leaves, dead wood and moss. Additionally, birds did not appear to select forest localities with high densities of ant colonies. The occurrence of ant broods within bird nests was also unrelated to bird nest placement near to specific habitat features. The attractiveness of bird nests to ants appeared to increase with the thermal activity of the birds warming their nests, and also during cool and wet weather when the occurrence of ant broods within bird nests was most frequent. Ants often remained in the nests after the birds had vacated them, with only a slight reduction in the probability of ant brood occurrence over time. Conclusions The natural patterns of bird nest colonisation by ants support the hypothesis of ants’ attraction to warm nests of birds to raise their broods under advantageous thermal conditions. Similar relationships may occur between other warm-blooded, nest-building vertebrates and nest-dwelling invertebrates, which depend on ambient temperatures. The findings advance our understanding of these poorly recognised interspecific interactions, and can inform future studies of ecological networks.

Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) sebagai jaminan keamanan produk Sarang Burung Walet Tujuan Ekspor ke Tiongkok

ABSTRACT Edible Bird Nest (EBN) is a food product of animal origin that obtains many benefits for Indonesia's export commodities. EBN contains many nutrients in which it is widely utilized in the health sector. EBN products have been exported to various countries and one of them is China. EBN products exported to China have potential harms such as physical, biological, and chemical hazards that pose risks to human health. Therefore, every product of animal origin needs food safety assurance. Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) is a food safety system developed to identify, evaluate, and control food safety hazards. HACCP is a system developed to prevent or reduce hazards to an acceptable extent during the globally adopted production. Through the implementation of a food safety assurance system in the EBN, it is expected to lower the risk of food hazards. This paper discussed HACCP in ensuring food safety of animal origin, especially Edible Bird Nest to fulfill the export requirements of Edible Bird Nest to China. Keywords: Animal-origin Food Safety, HACCP, Edible Bird Nest

Policy Assemblages and Policy Resilience: Lessons for Non-Design from Evolutionary Governance Theory

Evolutionary governance theory (EGT) provides a basis for holistically analyzing the shifting contexts and dynamics of policymaking in settings with functional differentiation and complex subsystems. Policy assemblages, as mixes of policy tools and goals, are an appropriate unit of analysis for EGT because they embody the theory’s emphasis on co-evolving elements within policy systems. In rational practice, policymakers design policies within assemblages by establishing objectives, collecting information, comparing options, strategizing implementation, and selecting instruments. However, as EGT implies, this logical progression does not always materialize so tidily—some policies emerge from carefully considered blueprints while others evolve from muddled processes, laissez faire happenstance, or happy accident. Products of the latter often include loosely steered, unmoored, and ‘non-designed’ path dependencies that confound linear logic and are understudied in the policy literature. There exists the need for a more intricate analytical vocabulary to describe this underexplored ‘chaotic’ end of the policy design spectrum, as conjuring images of ‘muddles’ or ‘messes’ has exhausted its usefulness. This article introduces a novel metaphor for non-design—the bird nest—to bring studies of policy design and non-design into lexical harmony.

THE COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS OF EDIBLE BIRD NEST INDUSTRY IN MALAYSIA: APPLYING PORTER'S FIVE FORCE

The demand for EBN is continuous to growth and about 70 percent of world demand still cannot be fulfilled. Unfortunately, Malaysia only contributes 20 percent from world demand. The aims for this industry are to contribute about RM5 billion to Malaysian agricultural export and to achieve at least 40 percent of world demand. As being one of the most demanded EBN and being in the competition for leadership in world bird nest market, it can be specified that new market entrants and investments are important to fulfil the aims of government to this industry and for the growth of EBN industry. Thus, the objectives of this paper are to analysing the current competition condition of EBN industry in Malaysia and its opportunities for new entrants. This study revealed that the need of a huge capital and knowledge to conduct this business is essential and must come together. There is relatively low threat of substitution if the business premise is a shop lot. Despite the existence of buyer power in price negotiations, swiftlet house owners too could influence the process and assure themselves of higher markups when they organise a tender process with the help of the rancher’s association. Threat of rivalry is low especially with the setup of the rancher’s association to help each member who faced problems.

Does Experimental Non-Reclaimed Sites Differ from Technically Reclaimed Areas in the Risk of Artificial Bird Nest Predation?

Areas left to natural development have been found to be sites with higher diversity and conservation value of local communities, including bird communities, compared to artificial reclamation of post-industrial areas. Most of the studies conducted so far have focused primarily on bird communities of post-mining areas, in terms of the diversity and richness of species. Our study dealt with bird nest predation on specific case of two experimental sites (20 and 32 ha) with more than a 20-year history of primary spontaneous succession established within the technical reclamation of the Radovesická spoil heap (approx. 1,200 ha, North Bohemia, Czech Republic). In the spring of 2018, we conducted a predation experiment using artificial nests (ground and elevated), installed within both succession areas and beyond, in the adjacent artificially reclaimed areas. We monitored the way of restoration and the distance of the nest placement from the succession-reclamation sites edge. The rate of predation was very high: 92.5 % in reclaimed area and 89.4 % in spontaneous successions. None of the observed factors analysed in the generalised linear model (GLM) have conclusively explained the risk of predation. The two experimental succession sites did not differ from the surrounding reclaimed sites in terms of the risk of predation, nor did they significantly influence predation risk on reclaimed sites. We believe that both relatively small and mutually isolated areas do not provide enough of an inner environment without or with at least a limited effect of predation pressure coming from adjacent reclaimed areas.