Using fuzzy time series with and without markov chain: to forecast of edible bird nest exported from Indonesia

Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok. This study compared two-algorithm method. Fuzzy time series and Markov chain as forecast method the number of bird nest exported from Indonesia. The secondary data between 2012 and 2018 were from Bureau Central Statistic (BPS). The scope using in this study were bird nest between 2012 until 2018, with a unit of volume kilograms (Kg). Used secondary export data, collected from BPS of Indonesia. Data were analysed using Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain using R Studio. The result showed that Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain method performs better in the forecasting ability in short-term period prediction and the values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) tends to be smaller than the Fuzzy Time Series without Markov Chain. It can be concluded the number of exported can be used Fuzzy time series.

Sistem Forecasting Keuangan Inventaris Sarana dan Prasarana dengan Metode Naive Approach pada Universitas CIC

University Catur Insan Cendekia (UCIC) is a university located at Kesambi street number 202 Cirebon city. As one of the new universities in Cirebon city of course, would need inventory records of facilities and infrastructure that’s what at the university. Additionally, records spending on facilities and infrastucture costs is important. To optimize that cost recording requires a system. To Improve management facilities and infrastructure requires data related to facilities conditions and infrastructure. Naïve’s own method was the result of his prediction of the previous year’s real data as a benchmark for forecasting the following year. The process of this method is to collect the data of the cost of facilities and infrastructure spending first, after which the system will predict the cost of facilities and infrastructure using the formula N= t-1, in addition to this web based research using the framework codeigniter. The forecast method conducted in the study using the naïve approach method, which is more effective than the moving average method. Naïve’s method was used to predict the cost data of facilities and infrastructure available at UCIC. The study also had the naïve approach prediction reached the following year’s prediction.

PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT BANDARA I GUSTI NGURAH RAI MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN RUEY-CHYN TSAUR

Bali province is a tourist destination island with good transportation. Airplane is the most used transportation to go to Bali. Convenience of the airline passengers are the most important thing for I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport Authorithy. An exact forecast method is needed to predict the numbers of passenger in the future. There are two types of forecasting methods; triple exponential smoothing and Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur, however based on the research Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur is better than triple exponential smoothing due to a small error MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2,4% and plot is close to actual data.