Ensemble Modelling
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Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3130
Dilip Kumar Roy ◽  
Sujit Kumar Biswas ◽  
Mohamed A. Mattar ◽  
Ahmed A. El-Shafei ◽  
Khandakar Faisal Ibn Murad ◽  

Predicting groundwater levels is critical for ensuring sustainable use of an aquifer’s limited groundwater reserves and developing a useful groundwater abstraction management strategy. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive accuracy and estimation capability of various models based on the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). These models included Differential Evolution-ANFIS (DE-ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization-ANFIS (PSO-ANFIS), and traditional Hybrid Algorithm tuned ANFIS (HA-ANFIS) for the one- and multi-week forward forecast of groundwater levels at three observation wells. Model-independent partial autocorrelation functions followed by frequentist lasso regression-based feature selection approaches were used to recognize appropriate input variables for the prediction models. The performances of the ANFIS models were evaluated using various statistical performance evaluation indexes. The results revealed that the optimized ANFIS models performed equally well in predicting one-week-ahead groundwater levels at the observation wells when a set of various performance evaluation indexes were used. For improving prediction accuracy, a weighted-average ensemble of ANFIS models was proposed, in which weights for the individual ANFIS models were calculated using a Multiple Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). The MOGA accounts for a set of benefits (higher values indicate better model performance) and cost (smaller values indicate better model performance) performance indexes calculated on the test dataset. Grey relational analysis was used to select the best solution from a set of feasible solutions produced by a MOGA. A MOGA-based individual model ranking revealed the superiority of DE-ANFIS (weight = 0.827), HA-ANFIS (weight = 0.524), and HA-ANFIS (weight = 0.697) at observation wells GT8194046, GT8194048, and GT8194049, respectively. Shannon’s entropy-based decision theory was utilized to rank the ensemble and individual ANFIS models using a set of performance indexes. The ranking result indicated that the ensemble model outperformed all individual models at all observation wells (ranking value = 0.987, 0.985, and 0.995 at observation wells GT8194046, GT8194048, and GT8194049, respectively). The worst performers were PSO-ANFIS (ranking value = 0.845), PSO-ANFIS (ranking value = 0.819), and DE-ANFIS (ranking value = 0.900) at observation wells GT8194046, GT8194048, and GT8194049, respectively. The generalization capability of the proposed ensemble modelling approach was evaluated for forecasting 2-, 4-, 6-, and 8-weeks ahead groundwater levels using data from GT8194046. The evaluation results confirmed the useability of the ensemble modelling for forecasting groundwater levels at higher forecasting horizons. The study demonstrated that the ensemble approach may be successfully used to predict multi-week-ahead groundwater levels, utilizing previous lagged groundwater levels as inputs.

Yue Wang ◽  
Yong‐Gang Li ◽  
Huiyang Xie ◽  
Bin‐Yuan Wu ◽  
Yi‐Nan Yang

Oliver J. Fisher ◽  
Ahmed Rady ◽  
Aly A. A. El-Banna ◽  
Nicholas J. Watson ◽  
Haitham H. Emaish

Egyptian cotton is one of the most important commodities to the Egyptian economy and is renowned globally for its quality, which is currently graded by manual inspection. This has several drawbacks including significant labour requirement, low inspection efficiency, and influence from inspection conditions such as light and human subjectivity. This current work uses a low-cost colour vision system, combined with machine learning to predict the cotton lint grade of the cultivars Giza 86, 97, 90, 94 and 96. Unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches were explored and compared. Three different supervised learning algorithms were evaluated: linear discriminant analysis, decision trees and ensemble modelling. The highest accuracy models (77.3-98.2%) used an ensemble modelling technique to classify samples within the Egyptian cotton grades: Fully Good, Good, Fully Good Fair, Good Fair and Fully Fair. The unsupervised learning technique k-means showed that human error is more likely to occur when classifying lint belonging to the higher quality grades and underlined the need for an intelligent system to replace manual inspection.

Tadhg N. Moore ◽  
Jorrit P. Mesman ◽  
Robert Ladwig ◽  
Johannes Feldbauer ◽  
Freya Olsson ◽  

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