Advanced MPS to explore unobserved heterogeneity: Incomplete training images, 2D to 3D, and pattern-to-point data merging.

<p><span>In the beginning of the 2000's [1], multiple-point statistics (MPS) was introduced as a novel geostatistical approach to explore the variability of natural phenomena in a realistic way by observing and simulating data patterns, sensibly improving the preservation of connectivity and shape of the modeled structures.</span></p><p><span>A usual requirement for MPS is the presence of complete and representative training images (TI), showing clear and possibly redundant examples of the studied structures. But in the everyday practice, this information is often partially or scarcely available, strongly limiting the use of MPS.</span></p><p><span>In this presentation we start with an overview of MPS strategies proposed to overcome training data limitations. We consider different examples of multisite rain-gauge networks containing sparse data gaps, with the goal of estimating the missing data, using the same incomplete dataset as TI [2]. Another considered study case regards the use of 2D training images of geological outcrops used to reconstruct a 3D volume of fluvioglacial deposits [3]. </span></p><p><span>We then consider a common problem in hydroclimatological studies: the bias correction of weather radar images with ground rainfall measurements. This is a typical no-TI problem where there is no example of unbiased grid image to train MPS. In this case, we propose a novel pattern-to-point approach, where we create a catalog of local grid patterns, each one associated to a rainfall measurement. This way the MPS algorithm 1) selects ungauged locations, 2) searches similar grid patterns in the catalog, and 3) projects the linked historical ground measurements at the ungauged locations.</span></p><p><span>From early results, this technique seems to recover hidden spatial patterns which correct the highly non-linear bias by extracting information from the pattern-to-point catalog. This is a first step for MPS towards the use of TIs integrating variables of different dimensionality, opening a new methodological path for future research.</span></p><p> </p><p><span>BIBLIOGRAPHY</span></p><p><span>[1] Strebelle, S. "Conditional simulation of complex geological structures using multiple-point statistics." Mathematical geology 34.1 (2002): 1-21.</span></p><p><span>[2] Oriani, F. et al. "Missing data imputation for multisite rainfall networks: a comparison between geostatistical interpolation and pattern-based estimation on different terrain types." Journal of Hydrometeorology 21.10 (2020): 2325-2341.</span></p><p><span>[3] Kessler, T. et al. "Modeling fine</span><span>‐</span><span>scale geological heterogeneity—examples of sand lenses in tills." Groundwater 51.5 (2013): 692-705.</span></p>

Smart Determination of Borehole Number and Locations for Stability Analysis of Multi-layered Slopes using Multiple Point Statistics and Information Entropy

Subsurface stratigraphy of multi-layered slopes is essential and crucial for slope stability analysis. It is usual practice for engineers to interpret stratigraphic boundaries using both site investigation data and prior knowledge of local geology, but such practice might encounter significant challenge when the site data are very limited. In addition, uncertainty in stratigraphic boundaries has not been explicitly or quantitatively considered in planning of site investigation (e.g., determination of borehole number and locations). In this study, a smart sampling strategy based on multiple point statistics and information entropy is proposed for delineation of slope subsurface stratigraphy and planning of geotechnical boreholes. It is a data-driven approach that enables an ensemble of prior knowledge within a training image using multiple point statistics. The proposed method not only provides evolution of the most probable interpolation from sparse measurements and the associated interpolation uncertainties, but also adaptively determines the optimal locations of boreholes. Effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated through both a simulation example and a real case. It is found that the data-driven framework can automatically determine the optimal number and locations of boreholes for stability analysis of multi-layer slopes.

3D multiple-point statistics simulations of the Roussillon Continental Pliocene aquifer using DeeSse

This study introduces a novel workflow to model the heterogeneity of complex aquifers using the multiple-point statistics algorithm DeeSse. We illustrate the approach by modeling the Continental Pliocene layer of the Roussillon aquifer in the region of Perpignan (southern France). When few direct observations are available, statistical inference from field data is difficult if not impossible and traditional geostatistical approaches cannot be applied directly. By contrast, multiple-point statistics simulations can rely on one or several alternative conceptual geological models provided using training images (TIs). But since the spatial arrangement of geological structures is often non-stationary and complex, there is a need for methods that allow to describe and account for the non-stationarity in a simple but efficient manner. The main aim of this paper is therefore to propose a workflow, based on the direct sampling algorithm DeeSse, for these situations. The conceptual model is provided by the geologist as a 2D non-stationary training image in map view displaying the possible organization of the geological structures and their spatial evolution. To control the non-stationarity, a 3D trend map is obtained by solving numerically the diffusivity equation as a proxy to describe the spatial evolution of the sedimentary patterns, from the sources of the sediments to the outlet of the system. A 3D continuous rotation map is estimated from inferred paleo-orientations of the fluvial system. Both trend and orientation maps are derived from geological insights gathered from outcrops and general knowledge of processes occurring in these types of sedimentary environments. Finally, the 3D model is obtained by stacking 2D simulations following the paleo-topography of the aquifer. The vertical facies transition between successive 2D simulations is controlled partly by the borehole data used for conditioning and by a sampling strategy. This strategy accounts for vertical probability of transitions, which are derived from the borehole observations, and works by simulating a set of conditional data points from one layer to the next. This process allows us to bypass the creation of a 3D training image, which may be cumbersome, while honoring the observed vertical continuity.