Interspecific competition slows range expansion and shapes range boundaries

Species expanding into new habitats as a result of climate change or human introductions will frequently encounter resident competitors. Theoretical models suggest that such interspecific competition can alter the speed of expansion and the shape of expanding range boundaries. However, competitive interactions are rarely considered when forecasting the success or speed of expansion, in part because there has been no direct experimental evidence that competition affects either expansion speed or boundary shape. Here we demonstrate that interspecific competition alters both expansion speed and range boundary shape. Using a two-species experimental system of the flour beetles Tribolium castaneum and Tribolium confusum, we show that interspecific competition dramatically slows expansion across a landscape over multiple generations. Using a parameterized stochastic model of expansion, we find that this slowdown can persist over the long term. We also find that the shape of the moving range boundary changes continuously over many generations of expansion, first steepening and then becoming shallower, due to the competitive effect of the resident and density-dependent dispersal of the invader. This dynamic boundary shape suggests that current forecasting approaches assuming a constant shape could be misleading. More broadly, our results demonstrate that interactions between competing species can play a large role during range expansions and thus should be included in models and studies that monitor, forecast, or manage expansions in natural systems.

An invader in salmonid rearing habitat: current and future distributions of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the Columbia River Basin

Invasive species and climate change are leading threats to freshwater ecosystems. In the Columbia River Basin (CRB), nonnative fishes are a critical consideration in salmon recovery, yet managers lament a lack of distribution information. Combining a species distribution model (SDM) with environmental DNA (eDNA), we locate range boundary regions of nonnative smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and evaluate its overlap with native salmonids. A combination of thermal, hydrological, and geomorphic variables predict that smallmouth bass is distributed across ∼18 000 river kilometres and overlaps with 3%–62% of rearing habitat of salmonids (species-dependent) in the CRB. Under a moderate climate change scenario, smallmouth bass is predicted to expand its range by two-thirds (totaling ∼30 000 river kilometres) by 2080. Basin-wide models were sufficiently accurate to identify upstream invasion extents to within 15 km of the eDNA-based boundary, and including eDNA data improved model performance at critical range boundary regions without sacrificing broadscale model performance. Our study highlights how eDNA approaches can supplement large geospatial data sets to result in more accurate SDM predictions, guiding nonnative species management.