Triangle Momentum

<p>This research investigates the breakout of security prices from periods of sideways drift known as Triangles. Contributions are made to the existing literature by considering returns conditionally based on Triangles in particular terms of how momentum traders time positions, and by then using alternative statistical methods to more clearly show results. Returns are constructed by scanning for Triangle events, and determining simulated trader returns from predetermined price levels. These are compared with a Naive model consisting of randomly sampled events of comparable measure. Modelling of momentum results is achieved using a marked point Poisson process based approach, used to compare arrival times and profit/losses. These results are confirmed using a set of 10 day return heuristics using bootstrapping to define confidence intervals. Using these methods applied to CRSP US equity data inclusive from years 1960 to 2017, US equities show a consistent but weak predictable return contribution after Triangle events occur; however, the effect has decreased over time, presumably as the market becomes more efficient. While these observed short term momentum changes in price have likely been compensated to a degree by risk, they do show that such patterns have contained forecastable information about US equities. This shows that prices have likely weakly been affected by past prices, but that currently the effect has reduced to the point that it is of negligible size as of 2017.</p>

Triangle Momentum

<p>This research investigates the breakout of security prices from periods of sideways drift known as Triangles. Contributions are made to the existing literature by considering returns conditionally based on Triangles in particular terms of how momentum traders time positions, and by then using alternative statistical methods to more clearly show results. Returns are constructed by scanning for Triangle events, and determining simulated trader returns from predetermined price levels. These are compared with a Naive model consisting of randomly sampled events of comparable measure. Modelling of momentum results is achieved using a marked point Poisson process based approach, used to compare arrival times and profit/losses. These results are confirmed using a set of 10 day return heuristics using bootstrapping to define confidence intervals. Using these methods applied to CRSP US equity data inclusive from years 1960 to 2017, US equities show a consistent but weak predictable return contribution after Triangle events occur; however, the effect has decreased over time, presumably as the market becomes more efficient. While these observed short term momentum changes in price have likely been compensated to a degree by risk, they do show that such patterns have contained forecastable information about US equities. This shows that prices have likely weakly been affected by past prices, but that currently the effect has reduced to the point that it is of negligible size as of 2017.</p>

Governmental Announcements and Indian Stock Market: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector

The Indian Manufacturing sector lags behind in contributing to economic devel- opment, as compared to its peer nations and therefore, to boost the sectorís contribution to the economy and to transform the economy into a cashless economy, the government of India had announced three major steps, Make in India, Demonetization and GST. In the present study using event study methodology, the immediate impact of the announcements on the stock of the companies from the Indian Manufacturing sector is examined and found that the announcement of the Make in India positively ináuenced the security returns. In contrast, negative impact on the security prices is witnessed on the announcement of Demonetization, whereas the GST implementation has no impact.

Liquidity-free implied volatilities: An approach using conic finance

In this paper, we consider the problem of calculating risk-neutral implied volatilities of European options without relying on option mid prices but solely on bid and ask prices. We provide an approach, based on the conic finance paradigm, that allows to uniquely strip risk-neutral implied volatilities from bid and ask quotes, and that does not require restrictive assumptions. Our methodology also allows to jointly calculate the implied liquidity of the market. The idea outlined in this paper can be applied to calculate other implied parameters from bid and ask security prices as soon as their theoretical risk-neutral counterparts are strictly increasing with respect to the former.

A Critical Review of the Market Efficiency Concept

The market efficiency hypothesis has attracted a notable number of economists to conduct investigations in this field. It could be considered as an effective method of driving investors towards the right direction while trading in the security market. A large number of researches believe that the market is efficient in some of its forms, while others take a different view. Drawing on previous theoretical and empirical studies investigating market efficiency and its three forms, this paper critically examines the concept of market efficiency through a critical review from different points of views. Moreover, it highlights a number of empirical tests and their results with regard to the three forms of market efficiency. It also focuses on the influence of market efficiency on the security prices. This paper concludes that the market seems to be more efficient in regards to its weak form instead of the strong and semi- strong forms, as a result, it is difficult to predict future security prices and obtain abnormal profits by only analyzing historical records.

Offsetting Disagreement and Security Prices

We propose that investor beliefs frequently “cross” in the sense that an investor may like company A but dislike company B, whereas another investor may like company B but dislike company A. Such belief-crossing makes it almost impossible to construct a portfolio that is composed solely of every investor’s most favored companies. This causes the level of excitement for portfolios to be generally lower than the levels of excitement that individual companies generate among their most fervent supporters. Coupled with short-sale constraints, wherein prices are set by the most optimistic investors, this causes portfolios to trade at discounts. Utilizing several settings whereby the value of a portfolio and the values of the underlying components can be evaluated separately (e.g., closed-end funds), we present evidence supporting our proposition that, in financial markets, the “whole” is often less than the “sum of its parts.” This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.

Anomaly Correction by Optimal Trading Frequency

Under the assumption that security prices follow random walk, we look at price versus different moving averages. Different periods of moving averages give investor different signals and we assume that a rational investor would want to buy more when the price goes down. This paper provides a theoretical model for an investor to systematically buy heavy when the security prices go down.

Valuation Analysis of Initial Public Offer (IPO): The Case of India

In today’s fast moving and dynamic world, short-term investors face difficulty while choosing which avenue to invest in. Investors view investment in securities as a highly risky avenue due to VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) pertaining to future movement of security prices. The study has been carried out to analyse the post-Initial Public Officer (IPO) performance of various companies that have gone public in 2017 using event study methodology. The study also tries to determine whether these IPOs were underpriced in short run and identifies various factors that influence the movement of such IPOs in the short run. The study found that about 70 per cent of the selected IPOs are underpriced in short run and the movement of these IPOs in short run is not influenced by the age of the company, issue size of the IPO, ownership sector and the promoter’s holdings after the issue.

PRÁTICAS DE GOVERNANÇA CORPORATIVA NO SETOR SAÚDE

Atrelada ao aperfeiçoamento dos sistemas de gestão, para agregação de valor à riqueza dos acionistas, a governança corporativa propicia um modelo decisório equilibrado, na medida em que ajuda a reduzir excessos praticados por gestores. Assim, analisam-se aqui as práticas de governança corporativa divulgadas pelas empresas do setor saúde listadas na B3 e na Nyse, bem como sua relação com o desempenho. Para tanto, reúnem-se dados de 32 companhias, referentes ao período de 2013 a 2017, coletados nos Formulários de Referência, no Annual Reporting,nosformulários 20-F e 10K, na base de dados Economática®e no Center of Research in Security Prices(CRSP). Os resultados apontam que as empresas estrangeiras listadas na Nyse apresentam melhores índices de governança corporativa se comparadas com aquelas listadas na B3, além de que foi constatado que entre os dois grupos há diferenças entre médias estatisticamente significantes para o índice de governança, considerando-se as práticas do conselho de administração. Os resultados não apresentaram significância para se inferir qualquer correlação entre o índice de governança corporativa e as medidas de desempenho empregadas.