Estimating the Gerber-Shiu Expected Discounted Penalty Function for Lévy Risk Model

This paper studies the statistical estimation of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty functions in a general spectrally negative Lévy risk model. Suppose that the claims process and the surplus process can be observed at a sequence of discrete time points. Using the observed data, the Gerber-Shiu functions are estimated by the Laguerre series expansion method. Consistent properties are studied under the large sample setting, and simulation results are also presented when the sample size is finite.

Estimating the Expected Discounted Penalty Function in a Compound Poisson Insurance Risk Model with Mixed Premium Income

In this paper, we consider an insurance risk model with mixed premium income, in which both constant premium income and stochastic premium income are considered. We assume that the stochastic premium income process follows a compound Poisson process and the premium sizes are exponentially distributed. A new method for estimating the expected discounted penalty function by Fourier-cosine series expansion is proposed. We show that the estimation is easily computed, and it has a fast convergence rate. Some numerical examples are also provided to show the good properties of the estimation when the sample size is finite.

Expected discounted penalty function for a phase-type risk model with stochastic return on investment and random observation periods

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to build a phase-type risk model with stochastic return on investment and random observation periods to characterize the ruin quantities under which the insurance company may take effective investment strategies to avoid bankruptcy. Design/methodology/approach By the Markov property and Ito’s formula, this paper derives the integro-differential equations in which the interclaim times follow a phase-type distribution. Using the sinc method, this paper obtains the approximate solutions of the expected discounted penalty function. The numerical examples are given to verify the robustness of the proposed sinc method. Findings This paper discloses the relationship between the investment strategy and initial surplus level. The insurance company with a high initial surplus level prefers high risk portfolios to earn more profit. Contrarily, the insurance company would invest low risk portfolios to avoid bankruptcy. In addition, this paper shows that a short observation period would bring higher ruin probability. Originality/value The risk model is distinct in that a phase-type risk model is constructed with stochastic return on investment and random observation periods. These considerations in the risk model are in sharp contrast to the setting in which the stochastic return on investment is observed continuously. In practice, the insurance company only can periodically observe the surplus level to check the balance of the book. This setting, therefore, is difficult to adopt. This paper develops a sinc method to solve the approximate solutions of the expected discounted penalty function.

Dynamic risk measures for stochastic asset processes from ruin theory

This article considers a dynamic version of risk measures for stochastic asset processes and gives a mathematical benchmark for required capital in a solvency regulation framework. Some dynamic risk measures, based on the expected discounted penalty function launched by Gerber and Shiu, are proposed to measure solvency risk from the company’s going-concern point of view. This study proposes a novel mathematical justification of a risk measure for stochastic processes as a map on a functional path space of future loss processes.

On the Parisian ruin of the dual Lévy risk model

In this paper we investigate the Parisian ruin problem of the general dual Lévy risk model. Unlike the usual concept of ultimate ruin, allowing the surplus level to be negative within a prespecified period indicates that the deficit at Parisian ruin is not necessarily equal to zero. Hence, we consider a Gerber–Shiu type expected discounted penalty function at the Parisian ruin and obtain an explicit expression for this function under the dual Lévy risk model. As particular cases, we calculate the Parisian ruin probability and the expected discountedkth moments of the deficit at the Parisian ruin for the compound Poisson dual risk model and a drift-diffusion model. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the behavior of Parisian ruin and the expected discounted deficit at Parisian ruin.

ON THE COMPOUND POISSON RISK MODEL WITH PERIODIC CAPITAL INJECTIONS

The analysis of capital injection strategy in the literature of insurance risk models (e.g. Pafumi, 1998; Dickson and Waters, 2004) typically assumes that whenever the surplus becomes negative, the amount of shortfall is injected so that the company can continue its business forever. Recently, Nie et al. (2011) has proposed an alternative model in which capital is immediately injected to restore the surplus level to a positive level b when the surplus falls between zero and b, and the insurer is still subject to a positive ruin probability. Inspired by the idea of randomized observations in Albrecher et al. (2011b), in this paper, we further generalize Nie et al. (2011)'s model by assuming that capital injections are only allowed at a sequence of time points with inter-capital-injection times being Erlang distributed (so that deterministic time intervals can be approximated using the Erlangization technique in Asmussen et al. (2002)). When the claim amount is distributed as a combination of exponentials, explicit formulas for the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function (Gerber and Shiu, 1998) and the expected total discounted cost of capital injections before ruin are obtained. The derivations rely on a resolvent density associated with an Erlang random variable, which is shown to admit an explicit expression that is of independent interest as well. We shall provide numerical examples, including an application in pricing a perpetual reinsurance contract that makes the capital injections and demonstration of how to minimize the ruin probability via reinsurance. Minimization of the expected discounted capital injections plus a penalty applied at ruin with respect to the frequency of injections and the critical level b will also be illustrated numerically.

On the joint analysis of the total discounted payments to policyholders and shareholders: threshold dividend strategy

In insurance risk theory, dividend and aggregate claim amount are of great research interest as they represent the insurance company’s payments to its shareholders and policyholders, respectively. Since the analyses of these two quantities are performed separately in the literature, the companion paper by Cheung et al. generalised the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function by further incorporating the moments of the aggregate discounted claims until ruin and the discounted dividends until ruin. While Cheung et al. considered the compound Poisson model with a dividend barrier in which ruin occurs almost surely, the present paper looks at this generalised Gerber–Shiu function under a threshold dividend strategy where the insurer has a positive survival probability. Because the Gerber–Shiu function is only defined for sample paths leading to ruin, we will additionally study the joint moments of the aggregate discounted claims and the discounted dividends without ruin occurring. Some explicit formulas are derived when the individual claim distribution follows a combination of exponentials. Numerical illustrations involving the correlation between aggregate discounted claims and discounted dividends are given. For the case where ruin occurs, we additionally compute the correlations between the time of ruin and the above two quantities.