Tropical cyclone risk assessment with special reference to Bangladesh

Tropical cyclones are regarded as the most deadly among all natural disasters. They bring catastrophic ravages to life and property as well as to environment. Among all the areas in the world affected by tropical cyclones, the countries along the rim of the Bay of Bengal suffer most and Bangladesh is the worst sufferer. In order to minimise the future loss of life and property, proper cyclone disaster management action is an absolute necessity. This, in turn, requires a better assessment of risks associated with a cyclone. The present paper discusses the major components of risk assessment, viz., (i) inventory of cyclones with associated causes of hazards, (ii) analysis of damages and inventory of elements at risk and (iii) vulnerability analysis with special reference to Bangladesh. Inventory of cyclones deals with the cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal region over the period 1881-1990. Discussions on causes of hazards cover strong winds. storm surges, rainfall. socio-economic factors, greenhouse effects, etc. An idea about the degree of cyclone damages and the elements at risks in Bangladesh is given. Some discussions on vulnerability analysis and risk reduction/mitigation with a few case studies in Bangladesh are made. Finally few recommendations are put forward.

Understanding model spread in sea ice volume by attribution of model differences in seasonal ice growth and melt

Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, but predictions of its future loss are made difficult by the large spread both in present-day and in future sea ice area and volume; hence, there is a need to better understand the drivers of model spread in sea ice state. Here we present a framework for understanding differences between modelled sea ice simulations based on attributing seasonal ice growth and melt differences. In the method presented, the net downward surface flux is treated as the principal driver of seasonal sea ice growth and melt. A system of simple models is used to estimate the pointwise effect of model differences in key Arctic climate variables on this surface flux, and hence on seasonal sea ice growth and melt. We compare three models with very different historical sea ice simulations: HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1.0. The largest driver of differences in ice growth / melt between these models is shown to be the ice area in summer (representing the surface albedo feedback) and the ice thickness distribution in winter (the thickness-growth feedback). Differences in snow and melt-pond cover during the early summer exert a smaller effect on the seasonal growth and melt, hence representing the drivers of model differences in both this and in the sea ice volume. In particular, the direct impacts on sea ice growth / melt of differing model parameterisations of snow area and of melt-ponds are shown to be small but non-negligible.

Ondansetron use is associated with lower COVID-19 mortality in a Real-World Data network-based analysis

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic generated a massive amount of clinical data, which potentially holds yet undiscovered answers related to COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, long term effects, and therapeutic solutions. The objective of this study was to generate insights on COVID-19 mortality-associated factors and identify potential new therapeutic options for COVID-19 patients by employing artificial intelligence analytics on real-world data. Materials and Methods: A Bayesian statistics-based artificial intelligence data analytics tool (bAIcis®) within Interrogative Biology® platform was used for network learning, inference causality and hypothesis generation to analyze 16,277 PCR positive patients from a database of 279,281 inpatients and outpatients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by antigen, antibody, or PCR methods during the first pandemic year in Central Florida. This approach generated causal networks that enabled unbiased identification of significant predictors of mortality for specific COVID-19 patient populations. These findings were validated by logistic regression, regression by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and bootstrapping. Results: We found that in the SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive patient cohort, early use of the antiemetic agent ondansetron was associated with increased survival in mechanically ventilated patients. Conclusions: The results demonstrate how real world COVID-19 focused data analysis using artificial intelligence can generate valid insights that could possibly support clinical decision-making and minimize the future loss of lives and resources.

An Analysis of Inconsistent Methodology to Compute Permanent Future Nursing Care Costs in Personal Injury Claim

Restitutio in integrum has been the underlying basis of assessment for damages under the corrective compensation scheme of the law of tort. This doctrine commands restoration of the claimant to the pre-existing condition prior to the commission of the tort. While this basis of assessment has no apparent problem in respect of pecuniary part of the claimable damages in a personal injury claim, however, from another side of the spectrum, there is an inconsistent methodology as to how to precisely calculate the ‘price’ of pain or even future loss. As a result, judicial activism plays its part in promoting its creativity of solution to the problem, leading to inconsistent methodology on this spectrum of damages that bears diverse output. The objective of this paper is to highlight the flaws of the inconsistent methodology for the assessment of permanent future nursing care. The method used for this research is by tracing the relevant authorities that use the various methods of computing the multiplier and analysing the outcome of each method. The findings revealed anomalies of output as each method produces different output without any qualification on why a particular method is chosen. This flaw in the computation of the multiplier for future losses other than related to loss of earnings should not remain viable as there is no consistency of the output based on similar factual circumstances. One of the solutions for this debacle is to forgo lump sum payment altogether and move towards structured settlement payment.

Predicting economists: Generating scenarios for stress testing future loss reserves

Stress testing under the US Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) regulations and those of many other countries seeks to assess the full possible financial position of a lender through an economic crisis. The introduction of lifetime loan loss reserves under FASB’s Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) and IASB’s International Financial Reporting Standards 9 (IFRS 9) rules complicates the task of stress testing, because lenders need to estimate future losses using scenarios that are contingent on the stress testing scenario, but without perfect foresight of the future stress test scenario. This work casts the CECL and IFRS 9 stress testing problem as one of generating future economic scenarios that are consistent with how future economists would create scenarios. To that end, we obtained historic consensus economic scenarios for testing. The results here demonstrate that a second-order Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model fits historic scenarios well and could be used to generate future scenarios that would be a realistic representation of what economists would predict given economic conditions up to that point. This approach was tested for US real gross domestic product (RGDP) and unemployment rate scenarios through the 2009 recession. The RGDP modeling was straight-forward, but we discovered that consensus economic scenarios for unemployment rate appear to be conditional on the phase of the economy.

Recent genetic connectivity and clinal variation in chimpanzees

Much like humans, chimpanzees occupy diverse habitats and exhibit extensive behavioural variability. However, chimpanzees are recognized as a discontinuous species, with four subspecies separated by historical geographic barriers. Nevertheless, their range-wide degree of genetic connectivity remains poorly resolved, mainly due to sampling limitations. By analyzing a geographically comprehensive sample set amplified at microsatellite markers that inform recent population history, we found that isolation by distance explains most of the range-wide genetic structure of chimpanzees. Furthermore, we did not identify spatial discontinuities corresponding with the recognized subspecies, suggesting that some of the subspecies-delineating geographic barriers were recently permeable to gene flow. Substantial range-wide genetic connectivity is consistent with the hypothesis that behavioural flexibility is a salient driver of chimpanzee responses to changing environmental conditions. Finally, our observation of strong local differentiation associated with recent anthropogenic pressures portends future loss of critical genetic diversity if habitat fragmentation and population isolation continue unabated.

Water column gradients beneath the summer ice of a High Arctic freshwater lake as indicators of sensitivity to climate change

Ice cover persists throughout summer over many lakes at extreme polar latitudes but is likely to become increasingly rare with ongoing climate change. Here we addressed the question of how summer ice-cover affects the underlying water column of Ward Hunt Lake, a freshwater lake in the Canadian High Arctic, with attention to its vertical gradients in limnological properties that would be disrupted by ice loss. Profiling in the deepest part of the lake under thick mid-summer ice revealed a high degree of vertical structure, with gradients in temperature, conductivity and dissolved gases. Dissolved oxygen, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane rose with depth to concentrations well above air-equilibrium, with oxygen values at > 150% saturation in a mid-water column layer of potential convective mixing. Fatty acid signatures of the seston also varied with depth. Benthic microbial mats were the dominant phototrophs, growing under a dim green light regime controlled by the ice cover, water itself and weakly colored dissolved organic matter that was mostly autochthonous in origin. In this and other polar lakes, future loss of mid-summer ice will completely change many water column properties and benthic light conditions, resulting in a markedly different ecosystem regime.

Protection of spawning habitat for potamodromous fish, an urgent need for the hydropower planning in the Andes

Because dams block migratory routes of potamodromous fish to their spawning areas, and energy generation changes natural flow seasonality, it is necessary to identify spawning areas and their conditions. This information will help in management decisions in the Magdalena River basin regarding the future hydropower development. We identified which characteristics of the tributaries to the Magdalena River are important for determining potamodromous fish spawning grounds, and we estimated the percentage of future loss of spawning areas because of dam development. Ichthyoplankton density is directly related to the floodplain area, and inversely related with channel slope. Low channel slopes offer adult fish a longer distance for their upstream migration and a longer time for embryo development during their drift downstream from the spawning areas to nursery habitats (floodplain lakes). These features could increase the migration distance of the adults, the time for initial embryo development, and, because of its relationship with nursery habitats access, the offspring survival. The potential loss of the actual spawning grounds in the river network was estimated to be nearly 70% because of new dams. Our findings will help to reduce conflicts between hydropower and ecological interests.

Do work- and home-related demands and resources differ between women and men during return-to-work? A focus group study among employees with common mental disorders

Background Common mental disorders present the main reason for registered sick leave in Sweden today, and women are at a higher risk of such sick leave than men. The aim of our study was to explore how the experiences of work- and home-related demands as well as resources influence return-to-work among employees sick-listed for common mental disorders in Sweden. Specifically, we aimed to explore similarities and differences in patterns of experiences among women and men. Methods A qualitative design with semi-structured focus group interviews was applied. One pilot interview and six additional focus groups, with a total of 28 participants, were conducted. The focus group discussions were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Data was analyzed with conventional content analysis. Results The analysis resulted in four main categories and eight sub-categories. While the study aim was to explore aspects of work and home, additional considerations related to internal demands and involved actors were also found. The main and sub-categories were “Home-related demands and resources” (sub-categories: “Not on sick leave for home-related demands”, “Feeling responsible for relationships and the well-being of others”, “An affected economy” and “Finding energizing activities and creating routines”), “Work-related demands and resources” (sub-categories: “Encountering tough emotions and an over-bearing feeling of responsibility at work”, “Continued work-related demands create un-certainty about the future”, “Loss of boundaries” and “(Desired) support from managers and colleagues”), “Internal demands and resources” and “Demands and resources linked to involved actors”. The experiences described among women and men were similar in some categories while patterns of experiences differed in others. Conclusions Home-related demands and resources influence return-to-work among women and men sick-listed for common mental disorders in Sweden, also when work-related demands are experienced as the main reason for the sick leave period. Furthermore, several of these aspects were described differently among women and men, which highlights the need to consider possible gender differences in relation to return-to-work, while maintaining attention to individual variations.

Is Fault Detection and Diagnosis in Pneumatic Actuator A Topic of Concern?

The present civilization highly depends on industrial products and hence there is an increased demand for the same. Therefore, each industry is trying to increase its production output without hindering the quality. Maintenance of plant health is essential to improve the production rate without any loss. Industrial processes require monitoring of every element as their consistent behavior is a fundamental concern. Any deviation in the working of these components may alter the quality of the end product, causing a huge loss for the industry. Therefore, monitoring and finding the root cause for irregular behavior of industrial processes is a requisite for avoiding any future loss. In this paper, an attempt is made to present types of faults, types of pneumatic actuator faults, and different techniques used for the detection and isolation of faults. Simulation work is carried out to generate stiction behavior in the control valve using the Choudhury stiction model. Valve stiction behavior for different values of stick band and jump values are discussed in this paper. A comparison of several techniques used for the detection of faults based on two performance indices namely true detection rate and false alarm rate has been given at the end of this paper. From these techniques, it is observed that these indices are interdependent, such that an increase in the detection rate increases the false detection rate and increases detection time.