Subjective logic reasoning: an urn model intuition and application to connected automated driving

Subjective Logic (SL) is a powerful extend of classical probability theory that can handle small sample sizes and, with that, the resulting statistical uncertainty. However, SL is a quite abstract theory and has found limited attention in the field of automation so far. In this work, we present a new urn model intuition to SL that connects SL with the Pólya urn scheme. The application of SL-based reliability estimation in automation is demonstrated on two examples from the domain of connected automated driving: first to assess external information for motion planning on-board the vehicle and second to rate connected vehicles as agents within a large-scale multi-agent system.